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Friday, January 6, 2023 Light snow event


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

back to pike north thinking, thought this had a chance for a while but again, not enough amps, or too warm, etc .

Seems like the trend so far at 00z is to take a bit longer for 925 to crash. NAM too just coming in. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol ok…the trend is down for most big guy. 

Last few hours I recall seeing some of our most trusted Mets saying globals beefed up slightly. Yeah, nothing crazy. But mesos have a lot of noise. You have to spend years and years watching those garbage short term models to start blending the general idea. 

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9 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Last few hours I recall seeing some of our most trusted Mets saying globals beefed up slightly. Yeah, nothing crazy. But mesos have a lot of noise. You have to spend years and years watching those garbage short term models to start blending the general idea. 

Ya I was saying short term junk.  I’m not expecting anything in my hood unfortunately.  Hope you do better. 

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mesos in windshield wiper mode.   
 

Good luck pinning this down. 

I think it’s mostly going to be how good the lift is. A lot of those zonked solutions with 4-6” had big omega and big QPF on 3 hour progs. Some of these warmer ones are just a bit more subdued on the dynamics. It’s usually safer to go with the more subdued progs but you always have to keep the zonked ones in the back of your mind when you have an unstable sounding like we have tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

32.2°

Hasn’t hit 32.0° all day.

Yeah I'll give the pope credit, it was a more flaccid push than I was expecting. Most of Rockingham and into Northern Essex Co is finally down to 32-33F. MHT still seems to be sticking out to me with a +1 or 2 warm bias at times. 

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4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah I'll give the pope credit, it was a more flaccid push than I was expecting. Most of Rockingham and into Northern Essex Co is finally down to 32-33F. MHT still seems to be sticking out to me with a +1 or 2 warm bias at times. 

I’ve noticed the past couple of days the H85-92 cold advection in N ME getting less “push” and figured it may translate toward the tuck our way. We really rely on that ageostrophic wetbulbing in these setup to succeed. Instead it’s mostly been stale sfc air all day with everyone in the lower els 32-34.

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