weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: My biggest "worry" from a forecasting perspective on bust potential is the IVT/norlun look prolongs the heavier snow over central/eastern areas for 3-4 hours tomorrow evening. That could turn a 2-3" event into a 6er. The lower end bust potential will be if the BL has trouble cooling (esp lower elevations...don't think this will apply for higher terrain)....but if we're ripping 20-30 microbars in the DGZ, I have a hard time believing even the coastal plain doesn't flip to moderate/heavy snow for a time. Agreed. Also, this isn't a scenario where you have a rapidly drying column. The column remains quite moist and you still have some weak ulvl divergence present so that's a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 you are all a bunch of amateurs. i am looking forward to seeing the Pope's forecast for tomorrow. @jbenedet your royal popeness can you put up a map? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: you are all a bunch of amateurs. i am looking forward to seeing the Pope's forecast for tomorrow. @jbenedet your royal popeness can you put up a map? He already said basically nothing outside of the hills before we moved to this thread. BL too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel SNH back in N ORH country will do best. Ya pretty excited about it here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Wouldn’t surprise me if a clap of thunder is heard. Little critters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He already said basically nothing outside of the hills before we moved to this thread. BL too warm. yeah I saw that, but i want his forecast in a map because i am too stupid (I follow @brooklynwx99to the bridge) to understand his royal popenesses words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Euro looks good for nrn ORH hills and SNH. Seems like QPF and boundary layer issues south of that area. Basically lack of good rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wouldn’t surprise me if a clap of thunder is heard. Little critters Soundings are pretty unstable....here is ORH tomorrow on the NAM around midday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 57 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Looks like the Ukie jumped on board after really not having much at 0z. Hopefully the euro juices up some. I thought the euro did look a little more heftier than its previous cycle on this - no? 12 Z yesterday was a bit more scant than 0Z etc. but I didn’t look at the 06Z overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks good for nrn ORH hills and SNH. Seems like QPF and boundary layer issues south of that area. Basically lack of good rates. Euro least impressive of all the 12z guidance. Although maybe it;s just doing the usual "I don't want to make a huge jump in one cycle" thing that it loves to do....because Euro was also the least impressive on almost every previous run too but it's been slowly juicing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro least impressive of all the 12z guidance. Although maybe it;s just doing the usual "I don't want to make a huge jump in one cycle" thing that it loves to do....because Euro was also the least impressive on almost every previous run too but it's been slowly juicing up. Definitely juicier. Even tried to advect some below 0C air at 925 from the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro least impressive of all the 12z guidance. Although maybe it;s just doing the usual "I don't want to make a huge jump in one cycle" thing that it loves to do....because Euro was also the least impressive on almost every previous run too but it's been slowly juicing up. RAP or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Euro has consistently had the best solutions for up here. Ukie is a little bit more south with the best goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: RAP or bust. Or Herpes/RGEM.... Heck, I'll take the GFS too or Ukie...they all looked pretty good. Euro was the usual turd in the punch bowl, but lets see if it does the typical Euro sleaze and slowly ramps it up at 18z and 00z on the rates...or if it scores a coup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The euro sleaze lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Or Herpes/RGEM.... Heck, I'll take the GFS too or Ukie...they all looked pretty good. Euro was the usual turd in the punch bowl, but lets see if it does the typical Euro sleaze and slowly ramps it up at 18z and 00z on the rates...or if it scores a coup I'll be happy just to whiten things up. Seems doable, but I know the risk either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro has consistently had the best solutions for up here. Ukie is a little bit more south with the best goods. I feel like it's good either way for you for at least a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS is like a light 12/23/97. East winds near the coast. Temps near 32 inland. Cold aloft, decent s/w. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it's good either way for you for at least a couple. Yeah I don't think any model would give him under 2". Euro was closer to 4" though and so was the 12z NAM....but the NAM was better than the Euro for down in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It just reminded me of that. HAHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it's good either way for you for at least a couple. Thanks man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks good for nrn ORH hills and SNH. Seems like QPF and boundary layer issues south of that area. Basically lack of good rates. I just wanna say....SNH is a large area. All the way from Brian down to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I just wanna say....SNH is a large area. All the way from Brian down to the border. Yeah I mean that area looks good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 HRRR with a mini nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR with a mini nuke. We pray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR with a mini nuke. It's like a mini firehose with some convection too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Injection low comma head is a fun place to be with these. As long as the surface cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Injection low comma head is a fun place to be with these. As long as the surface cooperates. Do you remember this event? It was like a 2-4/3-5 forecast and ended up as a 5-9" high end bust away from immediate water....but even BOS had like 3" when they weren;t forecasted to get much of anything. Your injection low comment reminded me of it....that was def an injection low. Dynamics were better for that one so i dont expect the same insanity, but a surprise high end advisory event isn't out of the question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Do you remember this event? It was like a 2-4/3-5 forecast and ended up as a 5-9" high end bust away from immediate water....but even BOS had like 3" when they weren;t forecasted to get much of anything. Your injection low comment reminded me of it....that was def an injection low. Dynamics were better for that one so i dont expect the same insanity, but a surprise high end advisory event isn't out of the question I remember. Milton had like 4" and I had a coating lol. But yeah, I know what you mean. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 If that happens again, I may just go to the top of Blue Hill, throw out the observers, and camp there for the night with some beer and MREs. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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