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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Temps/dews look above freezing across all guidance during the height of the clipper Friday, even up here in SE NH. Snow will fly but when dews are >33F you better have rates to see it add up, and for most of us that looks like an issue. ORH hills to Berks, monads, could be an exception. Really tough for rest of us I think. 
 

And then we hit 40 on Saturday, and whatever has “stuck” it’s gone, outside the aforementioned areas.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you we need south of 90 ? Is it marginal  BL? Anything to look for on 12z meso runs today? 

Yeah I think you’re in the game for 1-2 anyways. Fluid is a good way to describe it for your area. Hopefully 12z continues the trend. 

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can see why no one mentioned the models...everything for the 14th looks worse, which is all I, and most, care about.

Not that it matters right now, but outta work with covid and was hoping for late night model cinema. 

Might want to look at EPS before you cry yourself to sleep.  Feel better bro. I well know the stress you are under with baby 3 due soon. God bless Ray. Chin up bro this crap will break.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Might want to look at EPS before you cry yourself to sleep.  Feel better bro. I well know the stress you are under with baby 3 due soon. God bless Ray. Chin up bro this crap will break.

Yea, like I said in the post....I know OP runs over a week out don't matter. I just wanted a shot of dopamine before bed.

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Not sure who’s said what since yesterday … but every ensemble system there is has lit up the 12-15th like an asteroid impact over the horizon at 3am.  You could practically read by the intensity of the doom glow. 

Word choice for fun but more practical terms it’s actually an exceptionally coherent signal considering that still 8 to 10 days from now

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OK so obviously people’s attention is diverted to the near term …which that should be.

I’m particularly interested in that system nearing the 13th or 14th more specifically because it’s quite impressively situated in the guidance and suggestive for quite some time considering there’s been very little or no Tele connector support for it - although I’m going to check last night it might’ve changed. 

Yesterday we surmised the models would probably begin to focus on either the 12th or the 14th as being the more likely - seems to be they’re choosing the latter. Little worried about wave spacing and so forth amongst other stuff lol

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is quite impressive Deeply saturated and quite unstable with strong lift right into the DGZ. That would be some excellent snowgrowth 

image.thumb.png.3472d43f58dd23c988d32fe27bb652db.png

might be a bit too late for mby, but orh and adjacent areas could do nicely with this one...may whiten the ground here, ALY has about 1-2" expected, we'll see, temps and dews are iffy, but liking what I see next weekend. of course I won't be here most likely...

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Lol… .25 “melted equivalent QPF is “going to town”

Man we’re a pathetic sort, condition by unrelenting abuse of neglect and starving to the point where atmospheric morsels and afterthoughts go to town.  

Man we need a solid 14” That takes another 18 hours to end because of a nagging Norland to with an additional fluffy 3 to 5

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OK so obviously people’s attention is diverted to the near term …which that should be.

I’m particularly interested in that system nearing the 13th or 14th more specifically because it’s quite impressively situated in the guidance and suggestive for quite some time considering there’s been very little or no Tele connector support for it - although I’m going to check last night it might’ve changed. 

Yesterday we surmised the models would probably begin to focus on either the 12th or the 14th as being the more likely - seems to be they’re choosing the latter. Little worried about wave spacing and so forth amongst other stuff lol

I know it was discussed that the MJO is not having much of an influence, and these charts are noisy and not too accurate, but they are heading into colder phases.

image.png.a282fc606fbd8a6cdaf3c93fa595e925.png

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