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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


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BTV update

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 855 AM EST Friday...70 mph wind gust at 829 AM occurred at
BTV airport which is tied for 2nd highest gust ever. Widespread
power outages have occurred with numbers reaching over 47k and
increasing quickly. Still anticipating bursts of very strong
winds to continue for the next 1 to 3 hours acrs the region with
highest gusts acrs the western slopes/eastern CPV. Rain wl
impact the amount of mixing, but localized gusts 60 to 70 mph
still possible. It should be noted MPV has just gusted to 53
mph, so impacts are being felt away from the western slopes,
across most of central/northern VT, including the NEK associated
with the winds.

Interesting low top line of showers with embedded thunderstorms
entering the central/southern CPV wl have to be watched
carefully for potential additional mixing of winds of 70 to 90
knots at 1500 to 2500 ft agl to the surface. Once this line
moves acrs the CPV and northern/central VT in the next 1 to 3
hours, our winds should quickly weaken toward noon time hour. A
rumble or two of thunder is possible with this feature.

By this aftn our attention turns to the flash freeze with
tumbling temperatures and any leftover moisture quickly
freezing, resulting hazardous travel. Freezing temps should be
SLV btwn 1-2 PM, Dacks 2-4 PM, CPV 4-6 PM, and thru eastern VT
btwn 6-8 PM.

Based on the number of trees and power lines down acrs the
region, we advise people to please avoid traveling at this time,
until conditions improve.
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is the reason our flood threat is pretty low. It's still snowing in the headwaters and whatever changeover comes will be brief and easily absorbed by the snow.

Quite the pack op there so this will get easily absorbed once it does changeover as they're already at a net gain.

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