Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,188
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Itryatgolf70
    Newest Member
    Itryatgolf70
    Joined

November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

You should understand the context before quoting that part.  It actually was from me about 15 years ago give or take during a very mild November and early December.   I used that to prophecy the pattern change that year presuming it would be complete be xmas.   My recollection is it ended up being a mild winter.   May have been 2006-07?   Just can’t remember the year.

He is a fool and a tool

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Why even put any stock in the models beyond a few days. It's better for your health

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

The gfs has been unwavering with basically nothing through early December, though.  Tick tock, there goes a good portion of winter.

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

The gfs has been unwavering with basically nothing through early December, though.  Tick tock, there goes a good portion of winter.

Like I said, instigator ;-)

To be frank, I don't even care if it didn't start up until late January. All we'll remember is if we get a really good stretch of some storms and cold. So if that means one full month, I think we'll all be very happy about that.

By the way, December hasn't started yet. FYI

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Like I said, instigator ;-)

To be frank, I don't even care if it didn't start up until late January. All we'll remember is if we get a really good stretch of some storms and cold. So if that means one full month, I think we'll all be very happy about that.

By the way, December hasn't started yet. FYI

No one is calling for a warm, snowness winter (yet). I still think December will be wintry / snowy for a time, we'll see. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Through December 9th, wow.  nearly snowless

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

Thanks for posting this!!! Hopefully your post has the same results as Stein posting 384 QPF maps a few months back. Pretty sure it didn’t rain for 6 months on those 384 hr runs. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, be sure not to torch your turkey! :)

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

it sure doesn't seem as though the pattern change will be "complete by the 25th"

What are you talking about??? At the time it was predicted temp anomalies were +20 and models (and some posters) were hesitant to break the pattern. The last 10 days we’ve gone from +20 to normal/slightly below. What part of the pattern change did you not see occur.

For those that enjoy winter, seeing things return to climo is a good thing, even if it doesn’t result in violent blizzards before Thanksgiving.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So it's beginning to look cyclic wrt the EPO.    

The ensemble means re-emerge the signal, but hold it in position, like a standing wave pattern.  That telecon/mass field doesn't behave that way though.  More likely the ridge collapses south into/forcing +PNA  ...follows within a week either a whole-scale repeat, or the hemisphere goes a different direction ...   This appears to be doing the former, with a similar -EPO signal prior to what took place bac around 7th-12th of the month. 

The operation GFS has some unrealistically deep cold waves gong on out there in the deep range, but I figure that for typical amplitude isolating out in time. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We ridge bridge on eps.

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. 
 

 

9D6EDD9E-AFC8-4D08-BB16-600ABD03C0F1.png

98097E83-C0C6-4FE6-AA83-F821F94CCF8E.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. 
 

 

9D6EDD9E-AFC8-4D08-BB16-600ABD03C0F1.png

98097E83-C0C6-4FE6-AA83-F821F94CCF8E.png

That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group 

In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS


 

 

65C9FE99-469F-4FD2-B897-7D40EEB41D2C.png

55E8EF38-0190-4175-855C-C3B213F42B96.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't worry everyone at the New England forum says winter is coming 

After that advertised break. You may need a breather.

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Through December 9th, wow.  nearly snowless

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

2" by 12/9 would be fine with me...about what I would expect.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS


 

 

65C9FE99-469F-4FD2-B897-7D40EEB41D2C.png

55E8EF38-0190-4175-855C-C3B213F42B96.png

Cold will dump into the west, look for the SE ridge to link up with the higher heights over Greenland

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...