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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

12z Euro is alot colder than 0z at 240. 

Op runs are going to struggle with this upcoming change. Stick with the ensembles .

Have you ever seen that guy that does a YouTube videos Direct Weather? I don't think he's a weather guy, he just takes the models and just posts them on there like that's what's going to happen. His latest video he showed the GFS and that there's a big warm bubble that's going to take over in December. I kind of think that's a little premature.

He's very enthusiastic but everything is major, or a monster, or humongous. . I definitely get a chuckle out of his videos. But kudos for his enthusiasm

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Have you ever seen that guy that does a YouTube videos Direct Weather? I don't think he's a weather guy, he just takes the models and just posts them on there like that's what's going to happen. His latest video he showed the GFS and that there's a big warm bubble that's going to take over in December. I kind of think that's a little premature.

He's very enthusiastic but everything is major, or a monster, or humongous. . I definitely get a chuckle out of his videos. But kudos for his enthusiasm

Terrible… That’s YouTube monetization for you. I could make a good amount of money too posting the NAM for every snow threat. Model maps without context are the CNN/Fox News of weather forecasting.

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Yes EWR has dropped below freezing but the concrete jungle on the outskirts has not.  It looks like August here and you guys are like 2 months behind...

You’re out of your mind. My backyard in nj has looked like this for a month. I’ve seen flakes already and had multiple mornings below freezing. But yeah, just like august.
ebdb3448cdeaf9f0b8c8b4a19b5753e9.jpg


.
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8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


You’re out of your mind. My backyard in nj has looked like this for a month. I’ve seen flakes already and had multiple mornings below zero. But yeah, just like august.
ebdb3448cdeaf9f0b8c8b4a19b5753e9.jpg


.

https://www.wpri.com/live-cams/newport-west-view/

was down in Southern RI late last week and there was plenty of foliage, can still see some on the live cam.

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Models almost always have problems in La Niña with high latitude blocking. I remember ‘10-11 was a really bad winter for model guidance. 
 

There’s always uncertainty but the magnitude of it can change a lot depending on the pattern. There’s a lot of blocking up there forecasted to materialize in the next week and that’s going to probably cause a lot of flip flopping….like we’re seeing on the EPS today. That’s a much colder look but it’s not surprising when you have Atlantic blocking of high magnitude. 

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The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those.....

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those.....

Our classic SWFE/overrunners tend to just be cutters or inland runners that got rejected from cutting by a strong high to our north due to confluence….models frequently don’t see that type of confluence until inside a week.  
 

What makes the NAO blocking helpful is that it makes confluence to our north more likely. 

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those.....

A surprise...or shades of the 80s :lol:

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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I deleted my comment bc im not sure how the folks that treat the roads make their decisions  but it’s 2022 on Black Friday and there needs to be much more common sense forecasting or at least coordinating with highway treatment.
 

There were no advisory issued in the overnite update when it’s was clear  would be minor icing bc the Qpf was too low to qualify  . A advisory was issued at i think 830 after the ...issues.  so i don’t know if DOT gets their info from NOAA Or private forecasts but if NOAA they seem to benefit from  **another winter advisory specific to minor ice on highways** or just act of the abundance of caution book for early am commutes 

I can understand they're being a delay in getting treatment on the highways as it is a lot of area to cover. However advisory should have been up especially considering the holiday weekend, not that that should matter. That way if you stuff you're all wheel drive SUV into the woods off of the highway it's on you

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51 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I can understand they're being a delay in getting treatment on the highways as it is a lot of area to cover. However advisory should have been up especially considering the holiday weekend, not that that should matter. That way if you stuff you're all wheel drive SUV into the woods off of the highway it's on you

Same page 

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Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon.  Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress.  A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars.  Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles.  A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury.  I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident.

At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over.  Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2.  A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line.  Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span.  It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill.
I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. 

Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr.

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Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon.  Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress.  A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars.  Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles.  A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury.  I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident.
At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over.  Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2.  A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line.  Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span.  It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill.
I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. 
Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr.
Saw the story. I got stuck once going up that hill in sn storm

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nasty-looking accident about 9:40 this morning in New Sharon.  Mile Hill Road (aka Rt 27) was a sheet of black ice with passenger vehicles stuck in breakdown lanes both southbound (uphill) and northbound, plus a few still making progress.  A semi with box trailer going north could not stop and took the ditch, sideswiping one of the still-moving cars.  Then the cab swerved across into the southbound ditch, causing the box to swing 180° and leaving the rig like it was southbound and smashing into another two vehicles.  A woman from one had gotten out and had to dive to the ground to avoid being hit, the box passing above her, another such driver away from vehicle getting hit with minor injury.  I think there was another minor injury and maybe a fifth vehicle involved - the Sheriff's preliminary report, though lengthy was somewhat confusing, as was the whole incident.

At about the same time, a southbound vehicle that had made it up the hill had less success headed down, rolling over.  Officials from the Town of Rome blocked northbound traffic on Rt 27 at the Rt 225 intersection, closing off the 7 miles between there and Rt 2.  A 3rd accident near that time had a rollover off Rt 2 near the New Sharon/Farmington line.  Mile Hill has a long notorious history - its north slope a full mile and changes ~300' elevation in that span.  It's dead straight but with a sharp right curve (for downhill cars) 50 yards from the bottom and it's not uncommon for drivers to lose it there, either hitting the corner too fast, or if southbound, trying to get a run for the hill.
I'm confident there will be additional crash reports. 

Currently right about the freezing mark and some occasional light dz/zr.

Yikes.  No such issues here in the tropics of SNE.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Thats beer?? WTF is that? Probably looks the same coming out....

Just wondering what type of beer you drink ? That is a beast mode double IPA from one of the top 10 East coast breweries. The hazier the better. My guess is you have no idea of the IPA scene and think Bud Heavies are delicious 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just wondering what type of beer you drink ? That is a beast mode double IPA from one of the top 10 East coast breweries. The hazier the better. My guess is you have no idea of the IPA scene and think Bud Heavies are delicious 

I can't stand beer...and bud heavies just make your pants look like that IPA :lol:

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there. 

I got spoiled several years back when a customer gave me a bottle of 18 year old stuff as a tip. I don't drink much, but now when I do it's got to be top shelf!

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