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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Absolute torch first half. We’ll see about final 10 days or so. 

I like the N PAC look on EPS....good -EPO. Still -PNA but we can deal with that....esp as the wavelengths lengthen.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the N PAC look on EPS....good -EPO. Still -PNA but we can deal with that....esp as the wavelengths lengthen.

Yep, I mentioned in the other thread the EPS would work probably a couple of weeks beyond into December. This isn't a piggy or anything like that. 

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It looks like there is a great deal of cold which will be on this side of the hemisphere within the Arctic/polar regions so there's a decent bet we will see some impressive cold shots at times probably during the second half of the month. Could be pretty wonky though with mild/cold periods. Looks like there could be a quite a bit of wave breaking across the eastern PAC and CONUS so lots of ridge/trough scenarios. Our warm periods will probably be quite anomalous and our cold periods may be rather anomalous. 

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is ridiculous for the PAC NW into Vancouver. Wow. 

That D9-10 setup.....They usually can't get storms that cold in mid-January out there, nevermind early November.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That D9-10 setup.....They usually can't get storms that cold in mid-January out there, nevermind early November.

That's absurd for this time of year. Even the euro was cold there. Who knows this far out...but that's impressive. They started early last year too.

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The Gfs model seems to really get like a harmonic feedback that amplifies onto itself over extended time…it’s like watching “galloping Gert”

It seems to collect all these smaller perturbations in the atmosphere into gradually increased sizes ..,until it’s aggregated into these giant planetary wave lengths.  By D10s just basically tends to an amplitude bias. 

I recommend that the warm spell which may actually end up fantastically so by the way… between Thursday and next Tuesday is legit. The overnight models en masse really coalesced around that synopsis …offering very little deviation or room for differing possibilities. After that? I wouldn’t trust GFS at all - not that anybody is …

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the more extreme the positive anomalies are 1st half the more likely we see a greater reversal. 

-EPO is promising 

Don't be surprised if the "modeled" pattern change begins to fade within 3-4 days..

And let me add this, I'll be happy if i am wrong.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;trs 

Euro also shows some of the Scandinavian ridging retrograding into Greenland at the end of the run....if that happened, that will also help push the lower height anomalies further east toward Lakes/New England rolling forward. So it's another perturbation to watch.

image.png.ca8ff16ebf283d4b45a7c7276e7da8c1.png

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3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That any real  pattern change will take longer than what is currently being modeled.

Idk you'd be surprised how quickly things can flip when the ball gets rolling.

After the 10th things should start looking better and moreso after the 15th. 

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