Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    lakebreeze
    Newest Member
    lakebreeze
    Joined

November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

The EPO is also such a touchy teleconnection, IOW, a few hundred miles makes the difference of making the mean trough dive south over the west coast and torching MS river on east, vs getting ridging more into to AK and then getting that cold to dive east of the divide into the US. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OP GFS trying to hit the PNA ridging too mid-month and beyond. It also produces the first snow threat in that time which would certainly be a possibility if we were able to get that type of western ridging and cold delivery.

Ensembles will be more useful than OP runs, but they are all showing the same general theme today.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFS trying to hit the PNA ridging too mid-month and beyond. It also produces the first snow threat in that time which would certainly be a possibility if we were able to get that type of western ridging and cold delivery.

Ensembles will be more useful than OP runs, but they are all showing the same general theme today.

Maybe we can Nov 18 style

Nov_15-16_2018_Snow_box.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe we can Nov 18 style

Nov_15-16_2018_Snow_box.png

That was a great event. Had over 8” in that which then produced a white Tday a week later because it really didn’t melt much. Had the coldest November day on record in most spots on Tday that year too. 
 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a great event. Had over 8” in that which then produced a white Tday a week later because it really didn’t melt much. Had the coldest November day on record in most spots on Tday that year too. 
 

Yup that system(SWFE) was awesome here too.  And T. Day was brutal that year…what a nice vibe though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there's a chance we get a big winter dose after the 15th this month...

Sort of back-peddling to where I was 3 weeks ago.   The difference is that the NE Pac handling has been showing a 2ndary delta in the models - you have to compare a single interval and go back 8 or 10 or 20 cycles and click that same interval relative to cycle like a slide show. It looks like a progressive L/W train moving across oceans and country, linked around to eastern Asia ... All the models have been hiding this this.  It's like they running a secondary movement in the 2ndary derivative.  Kind of fascinating actually...

I originally liked the aft half of the month, because as I posted back then... there is a longer curve statistical convergence: Nina, solar, and season trend, all unique contributors, all suggesting we should end up with a early performer this year... Whether that parlays a single week with an event, or 45 days worth ... not withstanding ( I don't do seasonal outlooks).   But this kind of outlook suggestion is a no-brainer - I was just waiting on the models to suggest they know this..well - can't argue the last 5 days worth of NE Pac handling seems like they got the memo.

That much -EPO ... getting bumped E in time as I said above, will load Canada precariously with cold - whether that is seasonally anomalous for them or not... doesn't matter. It would be close by and enough for us.   

It's after Halloween folks!   CC or not...  it's fair game until Easter

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol..take one out of there, and put one/leave one in a concrete jungle, or one right on the water…that records too warm/too warm at night, that’s how they roll. 

That is the premier observation station in this country. What a stupid decision.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hate that.  And I’d really hate it if I lived near there.  What a unique station and history around the BOS area.

I’m probably more angry than I should be. Wtf. How much could that cost to restore it in the grand scheme of things. Give me a break. Shame on that decision. All the history around that station. Now useless. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m probably more angry than I should be. Wtf. How much could that cost to restore it in the grand scheme of things. Give me a break. Shame on that decision. All the history around that station. Now useless. 

The day they stop reporting on Mansfield summit is the day I smash my laptop, ha.

Even if it’s not an ASOS… put something up there that’s reliable and can continue the record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The day they stop reporting on Mansfield summit is the day I smash my laptop, ha.

Even if it’s not an ASOS… put something up there that’s reliable and can continue the record.

I think they have the Davis, but that doesn’t really substitute. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a great event. Had over 8” in that which then produced a white Tday a week later because it really didn’t melt much. Had the coldest November day on record in most spots on Tday that year too. 
 

I remember I was going for a huge modoki el nino winter that season and thought we were off to the races with that event. Raindance had a mild east and I was giving him shit after that one. He had the last laugh.That season was my first of two consecutive servings of humble pie, which I needed coming off of that 2017-2018 clinic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The day they stop reporting on Mansfield summit is the day I smash my laptop, ha.

Even if it’s not an ASOS… put something up there that’s reliable and can continue the record.

They’ve been doing manned obs up there throughout. There’s just no ASOS. I think they have a Davis showing realtime data up there too. BHO isn’t going away. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’ve been doing manned obs up there throughout. There’s just no ASOS. I think they have a Davis showing realtime data up there too. BHO isn’t going away. 

Ahh ok then that’s fine.  As long as you can still see when it’s 32F and dumping paste while it’s 35F and raining where people live… I didn’t know it was manned observations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, yesterday I discovered I had a propane leak at the outside gas regulator at the house and one of my tanks. One of my greatest fears is "things that go boom". The tech came and fixed/checked everything so all good now. But- I have to admit, my brain did produce thoughts such as- Oh god, what if I breathe and make a spark??? Or what if the wind blows a leaf and it makes a spark???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

So, yesterday I discovered I had a propane leak at the outside gas regulator at the house and one of my tanks. One of my greatest fears is "things that go boom". The tech came and fixed/checked everything so all good now. But- I have to admit, my brain did produce thoughts such as- Oh god, what if I breathe and make a spark??? Or what if the wind blows a leaf and it makes a spark???

When my son was 6 he decided to do a jump from the rope onto his sister off the couch, missed and broke the propane line coming in the house. I was not home but my wife immediately packed the kids up and left. I came home shut off the valve outside and prayed the house wouldn't blow. I opened the front door shitting my pants, was able to open one window and left. Scary scary stuff.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...