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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its pretty hard to argue against a pattern change when we're going from a huge AK pig currently, to a -EPO with initial dump of cold out west (while we continue to torch), and then eventually the EPO rolling over on itself and ending the furnace here.

You can argue whether that means first snow chances or just merely chillier/normal weather for mid/late November, but it's a far cry from what we've seen and what we're going to see for the next week to 10 days.

You don't go from a pig right into the freezer...the source region has to recover. Maybe the cold is initially over modeled, which would be expected...but unless the pattern itself keeps getting pushed back, then that is of no concern long term.

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5 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

So, yesterday I discovered I had a propane leak at the outside gas regulator at the house and one of my tanks. One of my greatest fears is "things that go boom". The tech came and fixed/checked everything so all good now. But- I have to admit, my brain did produce thoughts such as- Oh god, what if I breathe and make a spark??? Or what if the wind blows a leaf and it makes a spark???

How did you figure out it was leaking? I go to where the pipe is outside on the house occasionally to check it and make sure I don’t smell the “rotten egg” smell. Not sure that would even be what I’m looking for though 

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism.

Revisit in a month.

Yeah not sure why some reactions are the way they are....but regardless, the weather doesn't give a shit. It's not going to flip from excessive warmth to excessive cold on a dime either. It prob goes more closer to normal for a bit and then if western ridging takes hold, that's when we'll see a better chance as sustained below normal temps.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism.

Revisit in a month.

I know...I was sort of flabbergasted after reading that. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t get you guys(Pope and 1717)?  
 

Nobody here is saying anything massive or imminent, just that things look to shift to a more seasonable late fall, early winter like regime after mid month. The signs are being shown on the modeling…. ensembles and Ops runs from multiple suites. I mean isn’t that what we do here?   
 

There’s nothing wishful/wishcasting about what we’re saying or discussing.  This warm weather is really nice…but it’s gonna change and what’s wrong with saying as much? 

It’s 100% a defense mechanism. Guarding against less desirable outcomes 

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yow know if it was 25 at noon today, you would be OCDing about the timing being bad and skinny dipping on xmas :lol:

Be honest.....tell the truth...

If it was 25 at noon, I’d probably be planning to drive to N moose fart Vermont to enjoy some upslope 

I do understand hahaha what your saying but since I’m willing to drive to jay peak i wouldn’t obsess (for long ) on playing devils advocate On a rubber band bounce back to shorts on Xmas if it was 25 here now. Everyone knows that I’m not satisfied with SNE snow climo but 80-85% of time  I can usually drive to winter wx b4 I lose it .

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Nice Del Marva signal on this GFS …

… only have to wait 350 hrs but it’s there nonetheless. Heh

always a sure bet. Lol

In any event this run- fwiw – really likes the idea of pretty much a sweeping guard change at a principal level. Doesn’t include details in backyards

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The other aspect I’ve noticed over the last couple days of modeling is the ridge for this weekend aloft…? It’s really the penultimate ridgea; the actual big ridge bloom in terms of full integral takes place next week. But nuances in the flow east and south east Canada are creating confluence—> the big high scenario.

“If”  so that would limit Ts next week from being as large as this weekend. I realize other people have mentioned the high pressure but I’m talking specifically about the larger synoptic circulation scaffold wrt to ridging. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure about 80, but I think warmest temps actually might be in NW NNE. NY state, VT, nrn NH and into adjacent Canada. More srly flow in SNE might moderate it a tad. 

Either way, lady bugs and mosquitoes stuck in Ray's hair gel.

Saw a bunch of black flies on top of mount Wachusett today

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29 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Still seeing signs of increased heights across the Arctic and a retrograding Scandinavian ridge during the middle of the month. 

Ensembles are slowly grasping on to this idea as well. 

nflw.JPG

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-8340800.png

It looked more promising last week, but EPS isn't really buying that. For now anyways.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure about 80, but I think warmest temps actually might be in NW NNE. NY state, VT, nrn NH and into adjacent Canada. More srly flow in SNE might moderate it a tad. 

Either way, lady bugs and mosquitoes stuck in Ray's hair gel.

You think the folks in charge of getting Killington ready for the World Cup are nervous yet?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looked more promising last week, but EPS isn't really buying that. For now anyways.

 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I am in agreement with Tippy about something perhaps in that 11/15-11/20 period for New England. 

That strong pulse of lower heights SW of Aleutians showing up late in the run is interesting.....could mean a pretty huge EPO/PNA joint ridge extrapolating toward late November which is what some of the seasonal guidance was showing.

Regardless, the AK heights have been consistently well above avg on all ensemble runs after this week.

 

 

 

Nov3_12zEPS360.png

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8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You think the folks in charge of getting Killington ready for the World Cup are nervous yet?

I know they are, ha.  First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th.  If they haven’t started by then it’s over.  If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I know they are, ha.  First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th.  If they haven’t started by then it’s over.  If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event.

They aren't seeing anything prior so good luck to them.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I know they are, ha.  First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th.  If they haven’t started by then it’s over.  If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event.

They better get a ton of snow down in the "cool shot" early next week....not even sure how much they can make but if they don't make it then, there's literally no way they can make any prior to 11/12.

The irony is the pattern looks pretty good for them to make a ton of snow after that.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They might be able to make it..just don't see much if any natural. But then it torches again.

The world cup is on Superstar....that's the trail that stays open until June some years.....so most of the snow will be man made. But even making snow will be very limited....only that small window. They'll have to cover it good. At least most of the week will be dry...so dry with low sun angle should help keep the snow intact. It will just need to withstand the FROPA rains next weekend which will be high dews.

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