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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Dropped into the 40s around midnight but holy shit, then rose… 64F at 3:20am at MVL on November 5th!

Thats obscene… once in a lifetime stuff?  Higher than any summer climo to be 64F middle of the night.

You normally need a cutter and deep southerly flow to pull that off this time of year…not 60-72 hrs out from the next cold front.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some guidance showing potential for first winter threat near mid-month? Both Euro and GFS trying to show it…though via different mechanisms. 
 

heh... Folks may have thought I was 'merely' kidding when I poked fun at the notion 'by the 20th'

I still wouldn't be shocked.  It's out there.  It's real.  Whether it coalesces favorably of form from the model fog of solutions and obscuring fractals, will require time ...etc.  

Anyway, there is a pretty clear index modality underway. Traditionally, that is the base-line metric for ferreting out events ( regardless of significance). It begins there.  You can due the determination either inference via the telecon mode vs modality, or you can just watch the fucker and feel/'sense' something is about to emerge. This latter technique is quite difficult to quantify but works just as well.. Sorry, it does - the 'fuzzy' logic approach.   I think it just like how a Quarterback calculates parabolic integrals to know how and where and when to throw a foot ball ... That is really performing complex Calculus.  They just don't know it.  

Maybe it's something like that.  I'm digressing...  But it's been suggestive since the last week of October.  If it helps the quantity and quality argument, it's not being seen in a vacuum of reasons.   

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the tropical connection on the gfs. :lol: 

Can't get through and autumn without the models attempting at some point either outright, or hinted, fusing the Beaufort Sea with the Caribbean. 

I remember the GGEM like 20 years ago did this every year.  950 mb low on the Del Marva D10 from a Cat x 'cane getting sucked into a Nor'easter.  God, the good ole days of modeling cinema.  You younger gens missed out.

Then Sandy happens 10 years later. heh -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... Folks may have thought I was 'merely' kidding when I poked fun at the notion 'by the 20th'

I still wouldn't be shocked.  It's out there.  It's real.  Whether it coalesces favorably of form from the model fog of solutions and obscuring fractals, will require time ...etc.  

Anyway, there is a pretty clear index modality underway. Traditionally, that is the base-line metric for ferreting out events ( regardless of significance). It begins there.  You can due the determination either inference via the telecon mode vs modality, or you can just watch the fucker and feel/'sense' it about to emerge - this latter technique because it is quite to quantify but works just as well.. Sorry, it does - the 'fuzzy' logic approach.   I think it just like how a Quarterback calculates parabolic integrals to know how and where and when to throw a foot ball ... is really performing complex Calculus.  They just don't know it.  

Maybe it's something like that.  I'm digressing...  But it's been suggestive since the last week of October.  If it helps the quantity and quality argument, it's not a seen in a vacuum reasons.   

 

What we’ve seen on some of these model runs is a longer wave trough setting up over the east and then you have a shortwave(s) diving into the longwave trough…that’s typically a favorable “look” for getting something. Esp this early when you need the cold solidly established. 
 

That’s kind of what you might mean by just looking at it….years of experience tells us that we “like” that look for winter threats. We know subconsciously that we need extra cold established for an early season threat, and the best way to do that is a deeper longwave trough putting the ambient cold overhead in place and then getting a shortwave to amplify into that. 
 

Of course all the caveats apply at this range. Could easily look different next week. But right now, it has a shot. 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What we’ve seen on some of these model runs is a longer wave trough setting up over the east and then you have a shortwave(s) diving into the longwave trough…that’s typically a favorable “look” for getting something. Esp this early when you need the cold solidly established. 
 

That’s kind of what you might mean by just looking at it….years of experience tells us that we “like” that look for winter threats. We know subconsciously that we need extra cold established for an early season threat, and the best way to do that is a deeper longwave trough putting the ambient cold overhead in place and then getting a shortwave to amplify into that. 
 

Of course all the caveats apply at this range. Could easily look different next week. But right now, it has a shot. 

Right ...and there's kind of a quasi-connection between the "feel it out method" vs numerical inference there.  We do in fact have a -EPO burst ... The models are obscuring that by the way, but I implore folks look at D1 850 mb thermal layout over Canada - that reservoir didn't manifest from no where.  And all deterministic guidance show it taking over down to at least 40 N by D10.  It's delivered, and doing so with basically nill solar input to offset as we're about to enter the nadir months.  ...  the whole thing turns into a powder keg really. You got so much baroclinic potential in the ambiance that yeah...we look for kinks in the stream.

So, yeah.. in terms of methodology, there's quantifiable factorization going on, working together with pattern recognition and "music". 

If this were Dec already I'd probably have a thread started - I'm holding back in deference to the ugly deceptive "November 5" witch.  But, if someone put up title like, "watching the 14th - 20th for season's first winter event" ... I'm sure it would get bunned by less than enlightened intellects but it would have merit.

+EPO --> -EPO ... 

a week later, -PNA ... rises?   Go ahead and ignore that when early blocking, cold and snow events have occurred with shocking increased frequency since the year 2000 ( probably some CC aspect to it, a-yup) ... and here we are.  Also, the PNA is key sticking point/confusion.  The index doesn't have to switch modes entirely?   It just has to oscillate in the right direction to send a signal down stream... But there's a relativity to that.  It can oscillate and not mean anything, but if the antecedent layout is destabilizing, ...that oscillation means everything. 

I also find it interesting that yesterday's AO was introducing a downward dovetail toward week 2, while the MJO has been tunneling its way through an unfavorable Pacific.  You know ... maybe this La Nina starts breaking down by seasonal change exertion - that would be cool.

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