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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

70.5F Partly cloudy 

Interesting GFS run today.  Gets something tropical down towards Bahamas and rotates in west into Florida.  982mb near Palm Beach.  Crosses the state into the Gulf and then north north east up the coast.  980mb noreaster over Nantucket.  Not so far out in fantasy land that the general path has some merit.

 

That's a legit threat. Major storm moving up the coast in advance of the strong front.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My timing for staying at Mount Washington hotel Saturday nite would be perfect per 12z gfs for a few inches 

Yeah that’s exactly the side of MWN you’d want to be on in that CAA scenario.

GFS has had that deep trough moving in around the 11/12-14 time frame but last several runs are more transient with the cold…. It’s back to a more zonal flow late in the run. 

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76/61 average all home stations within couple of miles of down town.

76 at KASH and KBED ...  both with DPs similar. 

Gotta figure we're at or near capped...too many clouds.  

Tonight is really going to be something at say 10:30 pm when it may still be 70, struggling to fall while eerie wisps of translucent scud pass across the gibbous moon.   

 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

End of next week will hit 70

We might ... for a day .. day and half, but in case anyone's wondering it's not likely to be like this.    Ironically, this ridge aloft is actually the penultimate - the larger planetary wave expression isn't until next week.  

However, the N-stream is activating across the Canadian shield, and it's confluent with what's going on.. particularly aft of this wave lifting up into Ontario later tomorrow.  Likely to create an over top elephant's ass ...lobing a cheek's worth of high pressure N, it sets down over everywhere east of Chicago.   So ironically it won't be as warm despite the spatial layout at mid and upper levels. 

When that ridging rolls out the entire mode over the hemisphere is different.   Will and I were tongue-in-cheek speculating there may be a winter -like event ( talkin' mid month) around then, but it's not too far fetched - enter tl;dr reasons why here:  ...

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

PWM 75 so far today, which breaks the all time Novie high. This is fun.

Maybe most impressive is that even including the threaded data (which is not official for temps) it's still the highest Novie temp.

No kidding ?    wow.    how did they get past the 2020 5 days of 80... heh

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, topped out at 74 during that run.

Our 75+ normal high is essentially the summer solstice through Labor Day. 

yesterday ...I would have said I am not surprised by today, given that synoptic overview at the time.  This morning?  no way.  Looked like a gunk warm sector... I was thinking 70/64 - crazy enough as that is.  I did not think about the DP yesterday at all. I had 2020 on the brain.  oops -

But this is still doing it?  wtf.  It's 70f'um7 here at 62.  The sun is passed zenith so probably we're done ..  I'm surprised we did this at this DP.   I have seen it 70/70 with southerly gales, but it was swept rains and white roar through the trees out ahead of a pattern changing cold front. Lot of those in the aughts. I have never seen skirt CU with modest towers leaning with sun and nearing 80/60, on Novie 5.   And to think tomorrow is no different. 

I'm astonished.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

see this is how CC  expresses itself here in New England.   we'd don't get the +4 SD heat events in June -August, like they have in the Pac NW, Europe or Australia's January...   we get it between now and Christmas  :arrowhead:

And this is how CC is able to mask itself in the populated sectors. 

Most people just see these days as unusual warm but pleasant whereas they'd be alarming in June-August

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And this is how CC is able to mask itself in the populated sectors. 

Most people just see these days as unusual warm but pleasant whereas they'd be alarming in June-August

Funny you say that...

I use to think that it was ironic how the U.S., being like a # 1, 2 or 3 C02 footprint, isn't getting the big time SD heat bombs. 

Then the Pac NW happened.  

Still, far more frequently in Australia ...France and UK... Really haven't actually happened here over SE Canada and N of the MA.  Some how we're being protected, and perhaps "enabled" ( a little) in the complacency that results when it's always news affecting somewhere else. 

I'm sure that'll foster some arguers ...

I don't think it's been 106 at Logan for 4 days.. a two day break, before doing again another 3 days.  Some truly ER filling statistical death heat.  

Kind of fun dystopian sci-fi idea of mine is that Gaia is doing a toad in the boiling water technique to rid its self of the scourge species.  Maybe another metaphor, turning up the oven dial to clean - what we think of as a holocaust of climate is actually a purification process. 

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