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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Through December 9th, wow.  nearly snowless

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

Thanks for posting this!!! Hopefully your post has the same results as Stein posting 384 QPF maps a few months back. Pretty sure it didn’t rain for 6 months on those 384 hr runs. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, be sure not to torch your turkey! :)

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

it sure doesn't seem as though the pattern change will be "complete by the 25th"

What are you talking about??? At the time it was predicted temp anomalies were +20 and models (and some posters) were hesitant to break the pattern. The last 10 days we’ve gone from +20 to normal/slightly below. What part of the pattern change did you not see occur.

For those that enjoy winter, seeing things return to climo is a good thing, even if it doesn’t result in violent blizzards before Thanksgiving.

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So it's beginning to look cyclic wrt the EPO.    

The ensemble means re-emerge the signal, but hold it in position, like a standing wave pattern.  That telecon/mass field doesn't behave that way though.  More likely the ridge collapses south into/forcing +PNA  ...follows within a week either a whole-scale repeat, or the hemisphere goes a different direction ...   This appears to be doing the former, with a similar -EPO signal prior to what took place bac around 7th-12th of the month. 

The operation GFS has some unrealistically deep cold waves gong on out there in the deep range, but I figure that for typical amplitude isolating out in time. 

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We ridge bridge on eps.

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. 
 

 

9D6EDD9E-AFC8-4D08-BB16-600ABD03C0F1.png

98097E83-C0C6-4FE6-AA83-F821F94CCF8E.png

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking. 
 

 

9D6EDD9E-AFC8-4D08-BB16-600ABD03C0F1.png

98097E83-C0C6-4FE6-AA83-F821F94CCF8E.png

That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group 

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't worry everyone at the New England forum says winter is coming 

After that advertised break. You may need a breather.

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Through December 9th, wow.  nearly snowless

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

2" by 12/9 would be fine with me...about what I would expect.

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2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group 

I disagree it’s a La Niña pattern with blocking. The SE ridge that shows up in la Ninas is good for us because it prevents suppression. Even Metfan could get a lot of snow from this pattern if the models are right. The blocking will force Miller B redevelopment, which is great for our area. In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. 

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56 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe ENE, but not all of New England.

That's not true? I'm just west of Hartford about 12 my miles. When we get Miller B's at redevelop off the coast, we've gotten walloped, and I mean walloped. Miller A's can be amazing come but they can also draw in warm air aloft even more so. 

If I'm not mistaken, we've gotten some of our biggest snows from Miller B's that had redeveloped offshore. So them being only Good for Eastern New England is not a true statement or fact

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So case in point.

Juno in 2015 was a classic Miller b. Storm which affected New York, New Jersey and southern New England.

Nemo in 2013 was also a classic Miller b storm.. which dropped the highest amount of snow in Hamden, Connecticut at 40 in. Hamden. Connecticut is not Eastern New England. Hamden Connecticut is really western New England. Those are just a few, I'm sure I can name lots more. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

"In fact, Miller Bs are better than Miller As in New England. "

No one said miller B's can't be good out west

 

3 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe ENE, but not all of New England

These were your words? Am I missing something? If I am clue me in please ( seriously... Maybe I missed something )

 

Fight Fight!

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