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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just awful. 

Might you be right for December Kevin??? 

DAMN YOU..... Lolol ( joking off course ). 

The models have trended away from the colder pattern switch in the East as of now. They could switch back of course, but I just don't understand ( or have to much faith in the models ) anymore.  It just seems like the weather is just so volatile that the global models can never get a good handle on the long range.

Anyone care to chime in on this? 

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17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My daughter goes to school outside of Philadelphia----no leaves at all on the trees down there  EWR must be special.

There still hasn't been a killing frost here..

I tried to get a fire going last night and there was like zero draft it was so warm.

 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For who ?

Gefs still looks really good

Yeah GEFS squishes the SE ridge while EPS creates more of a battle ground. Difference likely that GEFS goes further into Phase 8 while EPS quickly kills the wave.

Both have blocking so EPS should still be ok for SNE even northern half of Jersey.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah GEFS squishes the SE ridge while EPS creates more of a battle ground. Difference likely that GEFS goes further into Phase 8 while EPS quickly kills the wave.

Both have blocking so EPS should still be ok for SNE even northern half of Jersey.

December was always going to be a battleground. We just need the ridge to be tampered down. 

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54 minutes ago, BrianW said:

There still hasn't been a killing frost here..

I tried to get a fire going last night and there was like zero draft it was so warm.

 

 You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the  Past 6 nights  With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27゚.  It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week 

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1 minute ago, binbisso said:

Ensembles look fine.  We have to watch next weekend for a wave riding along the front as it presses against the Southeast ridge And gets hung up.  After that there's a signal for a coastal storm The week of December 5th As the G EFS pops a PNA ridge

Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 

 I think we're all a little anxious to get our 1st snowfall which is always very special.  Plus we've had 9 straight days of below normal temperatures well below normal on some of those days so hate to waste the cold air.  I got down to 21 here in Westchester County. Would have loved to time that with some moisture.  Very early yet and a lot of good signs out there and we usually don't get our 1st snow here till after December 15th

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5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 I think we're all a little anxious to get our 1st snowfall which is always very special.  Plus we've had 9 straight days of below normal temperatures well below normal on some of those days so hate to waste the cold air.  I got down to 21 here in Westchester County. Would have loved to time that with some moisture.  Very early yet and a lot of good signs out there and we usually don't get our 1st snow here till after December 15th

Yeah I get it, but there is a reason why we don’t get much snow prior to 12/15. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s always been after 12/5. Not sure why that is difficult for some to understand. 

Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern

This H5 pattern

1565C517-D9E7-4D6F-BABB-7C5E2E0AA777.thumb.png.8ac4b8728e95c3c0809986c24119426c.png

 

Produces this temperature anomaly…

B7D16A9C-71C5-4AEB-BFCE-4949A6D4762F.thumb.png.85f66291fb85802f7e393526b7d7c48f.png 

 

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34 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the  Past 6 nights  With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27゚.  It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week 

I dunno.  I'm in SWCT, climatologically not much different than EWR, and here's the view from my kitchen window this morning:

asian-tropical-rainforest-260nw-1250238541.webp

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25 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 You're out of your mind. Newark has been freezing or below for the  Past 6 nights  With a low of 24 and 2 days of 27゚.  It has been colder than all the New York city reporting stations The last week 

Yes EWR has dropped below freezing but the concrete jungle on the outskirts has not.  It looks like August here and you guys are like 2 months behind...

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