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November 2022


Stormlover74
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474 
SXUS71 KOKX 061619
RERNYC

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
1118 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 2015. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE 
UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB ANY HIGHER.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1869 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

$$
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The canopy is finally starting to thin out with the falling leaves at the NYC ASOS. So they were able to get enough sun to reach the sensor for a record high. It’s the first record high there since the trees were bare in early March.
 

 


 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0213 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY YESTERDAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 1946.
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The Euro brings the tropical system into Florida later in the week. We get a PRE with heavy overrunning rains along the stalled front. Best winds this run are out toward Cape Cod. But that could change in time. First interior Northeast snow of the season possible beyond day 10 with record -EPO.
 

096B55D6-EC35-404B-BA67-358DC68AC211.thumb.png.eb97828f7458a756a40a0eb56dec5821.png

09B35047-A32D-42D2-8D21-3A68A8809BC6.thumb.png.e98619885018b1246e9f3a6ac9e5c8d6.png

C3F04F4C-0061-4986-834A-15F04FB7B151.thumb.png.148557ada01da1d568977e196878fca2.png
 

C7E9A44E-3240-4461-80D7-9D125E0991C2.thumb.png.5d66f18fcf9f77e14233afe015c50c2a.png

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro brings the tropical system into Florida later in the week. We get a PRE with heavy overrunning rains along the stalled front. Best winds this run are out toward Cape Cod. But that could change in time. First interior Northeast snow of the season possible beyond day 10 with record -EPO.
 

096B55D6-EC35-404B-BA67-358DC68AC211.thumb.png.eb97828f7458a756a40a0eb56dec5821.png

09B35047-A32D-42D2-8D21-3A68A8809BC6.thumb.png.e98619885018b1246e9f3a6ac9e5c8d6.png

C3F04F4C-0061-4986-834A-15F04FB7B151.thumb.png.148557ada01da1d568977e196878fca2.png
 

C7E9A44E-3240-4461-80D7-9D125E0991C2.thumb.png.5d66f18fcf9f77e14233afe015c50c2a.png

That day 10 looks frigid with the ridge spiking north into the Arctic Ocean. Hopefully as we end the month we can start some blocking. 

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10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the midst of what will be the New York City area’s warmest first week of November, flowers remain in bloom at the New York Botanical Garden.

image.jpeg.03fb9acbe93bf2a4f59410f7cb849020.jpeg

image.jpeg.c0fb0bf1086684cbc281be274a008bad.jpeg

image.jpeg.a175f00e984d96f04335ae4435dfbce7.jpeg

 

Good afternoon Don. Beautiful blooms and the second photo, …. a promise of peace. As always ….

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the midst of what will be the New York City area’s warmest first week of November, flowers remain in bloom at the New York Botanical Garden.

image.jpeg.03fb9acbe93bf2a4f59410f7cb849020.jpeg

image.jpeg.c0fb0bf1086684cbc281be274a008bad.jpeg

image.jpeg.a175f00e984d96f04335ae4435dfbce7.jpeg

 

The flowers around my garden are in better shape than they've been since early June. The Nasturtiums have grown to as much as 10 feet long with dozens of blooms along their length and the marigolds are going bonkers. It's great :)

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Today was another day of incredible warmth for November. Records tumbled in many parts of the Northeast.

Records included:

Binghamton: 71° (old record: 70°, 1978 and 1950)
Boston: 76° (old record: 73°, 1938, 1948, 1959, and 2015)
Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 2015)
Buffalo: 74° (old record: 73°, 1948 and 1956)
Burlington: 76° (old record: 75°, 1948)
Caribou: 71° (old record: 66°, 2020) ***First November with 2 70° days***
Concord: 75° (tied record set in 1948)
Hartford: 76° (tied record set in 2015)
Houlton, ME: 71° (old record: 69°, 1938)
Islip: 74° (old record: 69°, 2015)
Manchester, NH: 77° (old record: 75°, 2015)
Millinocket, ME: 71° (old record: 68°, 1938)
New Haven: 74° (old record: 69°, 1948, 1959, and 2015)
New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 2015)
New York City-NYC: 75° (old record: 74°, 1948 and 2015)
Providence: 75° (old record: 72°, 1948, 1959, 1994, 2015, and 2020)
Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975)
Rochester: 72° (tied record set in 1948 and tied in 2005 and 2015)
Syracuse: 80° (old record: 74°, 2005)
White Plains: 74° (old record: 72°, 2015)
Worcester: 72° (old record: 71°, 2020)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. A few places could approach or reach 80°. However, a cold front will bring cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. Beyond mid-month, there are some emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop.

Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -17.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.482 today.

On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.726 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.792 (RMM).

 

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As a prelude to expected warmest week of Nov 1-7, can confirm from my tracking that Oct 31-Nov 6 now has new records, mean max of 70.0 is a tie, mean daily 63.50 and mean min 57.0 break existing records. This is based on the provisional values for today, the mean daily and mean min are probably safe if the current reported min of 66 falls a few degrees. (58 for the tie mean minimum)

Also the minimum of 64F on 5th broke the daily record of 63F set in 1938 and today's (6th) now confirmed value ties the record 66F from 2015 (several have already posted that 75F is a new daily record max, yesterday and today add two to the former total of 29 days of 75+ in November at NYC). The monthly record high minimum was 67F on Nov 2, 1971. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Would say plenty of time for Nicole (just named) to make a more impactful run closer to the coast. I don't think models will settle on a track until maybe Thursday. This pattern is so warm, I feel it should set up more interaction between Nadine and GL low. 

I think it'll phase in rather than get kicked like the GFS shows 

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Morning thoughts…

It will become mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 78°

Philadelphia: 78°

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be noticeably cooler days with temperatures remaining in the 50s in much of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 56.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.0°; 15-Year: 58.9°

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