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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

I think people use the word torch incorrectly.  I like for a torch, relative to normal.  45-50 degrees is fine for the winter.  What I don't care for much anymore is the 15 degree days with a bone chilling wind.  Snow used to melt within a week.  For those who want deep winters, this is not the area for you---especially if you are near the coast--we don't live in Maine.

Snow used to melt within a week? Now it melts in less than a day lol.

We very rarely have those 15 degree days anymore.  I'm fine with 25-30 degree days and snow.... you don't need 15 degrees to get a lot of snow.  It's actually better when it's 25-30 degrees.

 

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

I think people use the word torch incorrectly.  I like for a torch, relative to normal.  45-50 degrees is fine for the winter.  What I don't care for much anymore is the 15 degree days with a bone chilling wind.  Snow used to melt within a week.  For those who want deep winters, this is not the area for you---especially if you are near the coast--we don't live in Maine.

I’m not the biggest 15 degree fan but I personally like it more than 100 degrees. I prefer good snow temps and snowy winters.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Snow used to melt within a week? Now it melts in less than a day lol.

We very rarely have those 15 degree days anymore.  I'm fine with 25-30 degree days and snow.... you don't need 15 degrees to get a lot of snow.  It's actually better when it's 25-30 degrees.

 

For those of us who remember the 1970's and 1980's.  Snow was rare on LI

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1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

I’m not the biggest 15 degree fan but I personally like it more than 100 degrees. I prefer good snow temps and snowy winters.

100 degrees and 25% humidity in the summer

30 degrees and 2 feet of snow every month in the winter.

If it goes below 0 once every year I'm fine with that too.

Just no wind please lol.

 

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Looking at the early climate report for NYC, 77/68, that 68 if it lasts to midnight would be the highest minimum for any November day replacing 67 on Nov 2, 1971. 

Any thoughts as to whether it could fall a bit before midnight?

(Later edit, low for the day at midnight was 54 F, have adjusted the following) ...

At the moment, this is the state of play for the weekly averages Nov 1-7 (as I reported yesterday, Oct 31-Nov 6 now has a tied mean max of 70.0 and new high means (63.5) and mean minimum (57.0): 

week of ____ warmest weeks ______ also near top (2022 breaks first of these)

Nov 1-7 ____ (max) 71.71 _ 2022__  69.57_1975, 2015, 68.71 _ 1950, 68.29 _ 1938, 67.86 _ 1961,82, 67.71 _ 1994, 67.43_1974

Nov 1-7 ____ (min) 57.42 _ 2022__ 55.29_2015, 54.14_1974, 53.86_1938, 53.71_1975, 53.43_2003, 53.29_1948

Nov 1-7 ___ (mean) 64.57 _2022__ 62.43_2015, 61.64_1975, 61.07_1938, 60.79 _1974, 60.14 _1961, 60.07 _1994,2003

_ the mean minimum did drop considerably but this was still be the warmest week for both mean and min. This post was edited as the values changed at end of day. 

Meanwhile ... 

coldest week Nov 1-7 was in 1879 (40.29, 34.64, 29.00) and this came after near-record warmth in October and a later record high on Nov 12th of 76 still standing, and a number of other daily records that existed until broken in relatively recent years, notably 73F on Nov 15th first broken in 1973 (77F) then by the 80F in 1993, and also 64F on Dec 11 broken in 2021. 

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10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looking at the early climate report for NYC, 77/68, that 68 if it lasts to midnight would be the highest minimum for any November day replacing 67 on Nov 2, 1971. 

Any thoughts as to whether it could fall a bit before midnight? At the moment, this is the state of play for the weekly averages Nov 1-7 (as I reported yesterday, Oct 31-Nov 6 now has a tied mean max of 70.0 and new high means (63.5) and mean minimum (57.0): 

week of ____ warmest weeks ______ also near top (2022 breaks first of these)

Nov 1-7 ____ (max) 71.71 _ 2022*__  69.57 _ 1975, 2015, 68.71 _ 1950, 68.29 _ 1938, 67.86 _ 1961,82, 67.71 _ 1994

Nov 1-7 ____ (min) 59.42 _ 2022*__ 55.29 _ 2015, _ 1974, 53.86 _ 1938, 53.71 _ 1975, 53.43 _ 2003

Nov 1-7 ___ (mean) 65.57 _2022*__ 62.43 _ 2015, 61.64 _ 1974, 61.07 _ 1938, 60.79 _1974, 60.14 _1961, 60.07 _1994,2003

_ the mean minimum could drop considerably and this would still be the warmest week for both mean and min. This post will be edited if necessary if the values change at end of day. 

Meanwhile ... 

coldest week Nov 1-7 was in 1879 (40.29, 34.64, 29.00) and this came after near-record warmth in October and a later record high on Nov 12th of 76 still standing, and a number of other daily records that existed until broken in relatively recent years, notably 73F on Nov 15th first broken in 1973 (77F) then by the 80F in 1993, and also 64F on Dec 11 broken in 2021. 

It should be well below 68 by midnight. Probably upper 50s

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Well it will still set records, lots of wiggle room for a lower minimum today. By the way, worth noting perhaps, the mean maxima for the next five weekly intervals (2nd-8th to 6th-12th) are all higher than today's new record, in the 72-74 range. These were set in 1975 (first three) and 2020 (last two). 

Also of interest, the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald occurred on the night of Nov 10-11, the 1975 early Nov warm spell ended on the 11th although the rest of the month had a few milder intervals. 

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

I think people use the word torch incorrectly.  I like for a torch, relative to normal.  45-50 degrees is fine for the winter.  What I don't care for much anymore is the 15 degree days with a bone chilling wind.  Snow used to melt within a week.  For those who want deep winters, this is not the area for you---especially if you are near the coast--we don't live in Maine.

NJ is 2.9 degrees above pre-industrial temps according to what I was looking at earlier. 
 

While we don’t live in Maine neither do we live in South Carolina, historically NJ was not a particularly warm state. It’s all relative of course but climate change has significantly altered what we perceive as normal, especially here. 
 

Even just reviewing the daily averages for this area will help to reveal how off the mark we’re getting. 
 

Average low for my area right now is 34 degrees, and the daily low temperatures seem to be one of the worst impacted by the overall warming. 
 

It’s hard to articulate without emotional rambling, but I just find it to be upsetting. 

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NJ is 2.9 degrees above pre-industrial temps according to what I was looking at earlier. 
 
While we don’t live in Maine neither do we live in South Carolina, historically NJ was not a particularly warm state. It’s all relative of course but climate change has significantly altered what we perceive as normal, especially here. 
 
Even just reviewing the daily averages for this area will help to reveal how off the mark we’re getting. 
 
Average low for my area right now is 34 degrees, and the daily low temperatures seem to be one of the worst impacted by the overall warming. 
 
It’s hard to articulate without emotional rambling, but I just find it to be upsetting. 

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Ten years ago the high temperature at JFK Airport was 41°, as a snowstorm moved in. Today, summerlike warmth prevailed as the thermometer topped out at 80°.

Today's daily records included:

Athens, GA: 85° (old record: 84°, 2017)
Atlanta: 83° (old record: 79°, 2005 and 2017)
Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 2020)
Baltimore: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)
Bangor: 73° (old record: 71°, 2020)
Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Caribou: 64° (old record: 63°, 1948)
Houlton, ME: 67° (old record: 66°, 1948 and 1975)
Islip: 80° (old record: 74°, 2020) ***New November Record***
Lynchburg: 84° (old record: 77°, 1965)
New Haven: 80° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record***
New Orleans: 90° (old record: 86°, 1986) ***New November Record; Latest 90° temperature on record***
New York City-JFK: 80° (old record: 73°, 2020)
New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Newark: 81° (old record: 78°, 1938)
Philadelphia: 79° (old record: 76°, 1938)
Poughkeepsie: 75° (tied record set in 2020)
Providence: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Raleigh: 84° (old record: 80°, 2008)
Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975)
Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020)
Tallahassee: 88° (old record: 86°, 2003 and 2015)
Trenton: 76° (tied record set in 1975)
Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938 and 1975)
Westhampton: 80° (old record: 70°, 2020) ***New November Record***
White Plains: 75° (old record: 73°, 2020)
Wilmington, DE: 80° (old record: 75°, 1938, 1975, and 2020)

Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (JFK, LGA, NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia all experienced their warmest first week of November on record. The final numbers will be available after midnight, as cooler air is now pressing into the region.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week.

The cold front could be preceded by a significant rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday.

Beyond mid-month, there are emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. There is now good agreement between the latest ensembles and the statistical guidance following strong polar vortexes at the end of October showing the AO going negative toward November 20th +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -31.05 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.739 today.

On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.827 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5° (2.5° above normal).

 

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KEPT UP WITH THE JONES TODAY IN CI:     High 77.      Lagged the last two days with 67 and  68.

68*(92%RH) here at 6am.      67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.)      70* at 10am.         71* at 10:15am.    72* at 10:30am.     73* at 11am.       74* at 11:30am.      75* at 1pm.       76* at 1:30pm.    Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down  to 29%.          70* at 7pm(24%RH).       65* at 9pm.

donsutherland1>>>>I think you meant to end with +2.4.

 

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Here's an update of my earlier list of all November days that reached or exceeded 75F at NYC in November ... and an interesting added fact, there had been 29 days up to 2021, and now it's 32, but those were often distributed two or three apiece to warm Novembers, so the number of months of November with a 75+ day was 21 and is now 22. Years that had such days (and the number) are 1879 (1), 1914 (1), 1929 (1), 1936 (1), 1938 (1), 1950 (2), 1961 (2), 1968 (1), 1971 (1), 1973 (1), 1974 (2), 1975 (3), 1982 (2), 1985 (1), 1987 (1), 1990 (1), 1993 (1), 1994 (1), 2001 (1), 2003 (2), 2020 (2), 2022 (3) and add 1998 (1) for the lone December 75+ reading.

The full list of November days at NYC (Central Park) that have exceeded 75F, organized by days of the month and in order where more than one. For November days without one, the record high is listed. The warmest value shown on days with entries will of course also be the record for that date. 

1st _ 84 (1950), 81 (1974), 77 (1982 and 2003)

2nd_ 83 (1950), 79 (1982), 77 (1968), 76 (1929), 75 (1971 and 2001)

3rd _ 79 (2003), 78 (1990), 75 (1936)

4th _ 78 (1975), 77 (1961 and 1987), 76 (1914, 1974 and 1994)

5th _ 78 (1961), 76 (2022)

6th _ 75 (2022) broke records of  (74 1948, 2015)

7th _ 78 (1938), 77 (2022)

8th _ 76 (1975), 75 (2020)

9th _ 75 (1975, 2020)

10th_____ (74 2020)

11th______ (74 1949)

12th_ 76 (1879) warmest since is 73 1909, then 72 1912, 70 1927&38, 69 1964, 68 1982, 2020

13th_____ (73 1931)  

14th_____ (72 1993)

15th_ 80 (1993), 77 (1973)

16th_____ (72 1928)

17th_____ (71 1953)

18th_____ (73 1921,28)

19th_____ (72 1921)

20th_ 77 (1985), (four years had 74, 1934,42,48,91)

21st_____ (74 1900) warmest since 1900 is 72 1931

22nd_____ (72 1931)

23rd_____ (72 1931)

24th_____ (73 1979)

25th_____ (73 1979)

26th_____ (67 1946)

27th_____ (72 1896) (warmest since 1896 is 64 on six occasions)

28th_____ (70 2011)

29th_____ (69 1990)

30th_____ (70 1991)

(All December)

 7th _ 75 (1998)

(4th 1998, 74; 4th 1982 and 24th 2015 72; 6th 2001 and 22nd 2013 71, 1st 2006, 5th 2001, 10th 1946 and 29th 1984 70) are the only other Dec maxima 70 or higher.

_________________ __________________

==================== 

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38 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

KEPT UP WITH THE JONES TODAY IN CI:     High 77.      Lagged the last two days with 67 and  68.

68*(92%RH) here at 6am.      67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.)      70* at 10am.         71* at 10:15am.    72* at 10:30am.     73* at 11am.       74* at 11:30am.      75* at 1pm.       76* at 1:30pm.    Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down  to 29%.          70* at 7pm(24%RH).       65* at 9pm.

donsutherland1>>>>I think you meant to end with +2.4.

 

Error fixed.

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