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November 2022


Stormlover74
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This Saturday event could be epic but perhaps a bit further west? I see strong chances of a phaser that drops a quick 4-6 inches of rain maybe in ePA and central upstate NY. Closer to 2" for NYC metro, peak wind gusts perhaps into 60s. If it tracks over western LI though then the NYC metro could get the 4-6" rains. There was a "snow hurricane" in autumn 1804, I don't think the air mass is quite cold enough to wrap around the phased storm that quickly here, in fact I see better chances of the actual final result being a lower Great Lakes phaser like Nov 1913 to some extent. The mid-latitude low was back in eastern UT last time I looked at maps, maybe it's into w CO now. Lots of cold air available, it's about -15 C in most of western Canada today. I have -5 C here and a fresh 8-10" snow cover, full on winter here after so many weeks of way above normal ending Oct 20th. We have not been above normal since then.

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Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night.

Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph.

With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975.

Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

 

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47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night.

Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph.

With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975.

Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

 

Don I don't believe JFK has gotten into the 30s either-- the lowest low I could find for them was 40 degrees.

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night.

Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph.

With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975.

Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

 

ABE  looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking.  The Euro painted that out this possibility about three  days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW  quadrant of the storm.  

 

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

ABE  looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking.  The Euro painted that out this possibility about three  days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW  quadrant of the storm.  

 

Forecast for the Poconos for next week is for 5-8" inches of snow....weird.

 

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For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen.

EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between.  Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something.  Attached the meager numbers for the period in question. image.thumb.png.a2083cf7e2d42e6634723c97317550fc.png

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be fair and warmer. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 69°

Rain from Nicole will arrive tomorrow. Thunderstorms are possible and it will be unseasonably warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

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45 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen.

EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between.  Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something.  Attached the meager numbers for the period in question. image.thumb.png.a2083cf7e2d42e6634723c97317550fc.png

the warm weather was a nice break

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Record -EPO blocking setting up for next week. So a much colder pattern with the first freeze of the season for many in the forecast. These -EPO patterns are usually fairly progressive. So the GFS looks overamped compared to the Euro and GEM. But the chance exists for the first flakes of the season for interior zones. 
 

EBA05366-CAE6-4FDC-80EB-4A8A35F04754.png.8ea16391aa01dffad644208c9db7eb6f.png

533F0186-7BBC-4C48-B590-3D51C4CD4A79.gif.6a2bc3e0152a3b725b7d6fd558b29d9b.gif

4A4E68FA-B4ED-462F-A7D9-3557076A5CD2.gif.38fbeab3f8c1a4a2e0997d21c04aad0b.gif

 

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8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

ABE  looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking.  The Euro painted that out this possibility about three  days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW  quadrant of the storm.  

 

The potential for some snow/sleet clearly is there. Overnight, there was even a hint that at least a trace of wintry precipitation could even extend close to the coast. 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record -EPO blocking setting up for next week. So a much colder pattern with the first freeze of the season for many in the forecast. These -EPO patterns are usually fairly progressive. So the GFS looks overamped compared to the Euro and GEM. But the chance exists for the first flakes of the season for interior zones. 
 

EBA05366-CAE6-4FDC-80EB-4A8A35F04754.png.8ea16391aa01dffad644208c9db7eb6f.png

533F0186-7BBC-4C48-B590-3D51C4CD4A79.gif.6a2bc3e0152a3b725b7d6fd558b29d9b.gif

4A4E68FA-B4ED-462F-A7D9-3557076A5CD2.gif.38fbeab3f8c1a4a2e0997d21c04aad0b.gif

 

If the guidance verifies, this will be a historic EPO block. Both the EPS and GEFS show the EPO plunging to -5.000 or below for November 15-16. Below are the November and all-time records:

November Record: -3.600, November 8, 1979

All-Time Record: -5.044, December 24, 1983 (only day on record with a -5.000 or below value)

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19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the guidance verifies, this will be a historic EPO block. Both the EPS and GEFS show the EPO plunging to -5.000 or below for November 15-16. Below are the November and all-time records:

November Record: -3.600, November 8, 1979

All-Time Record: -5.044, December 24, 1983 (only day on record with a -5.000 or below value)

Don, where did you find those raw forecast EPO values? The EPO site stopped posting the official forecast numbers like they do with the other teleconnection indices. I was using the NAEFS 500 mb forecast heights which will be the highest since 1979 for the dates coming up.

Old ESRL/PSD forecast site discontinued

 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don, where did you find those raw forecast EPO values? The EPO site stopped posting the official forecast numbers like they do with the other teleconnection indices. I was using the NAEFS 500 mb forecast heights which will be the highest since 1979 for the dates coming up.

Old ESRL/PSD forecast site discontinued

 

we.png

I found them here: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

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The next 8 days are averaging   50degs.(45/56) or +2.

Month to date is   61.2[+9.9].         Should be   55.9[+6.1] by the 18th.

Reached 55 here yesterday.

(Low was 49* at 5am)  50*(73%RH) here at 6am.        55* at 9am.       57* at 11am.      59* at Noon.      61* at 1pm.       62* at 2pm.     Reached 64* at 4pm.

9AM T's on Sat.      Unfortunately it is quite windy and rainy near this time.

1668261600-ddPWCFJFrUg.png

1668243600-hWGGXp1Pueo.png

 

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29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Right. They post the daily values but don’t issue forecasts anymore. So we have to go by extrapolating from the 500 mb heights or looking at the vendors custom forecast indices. 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, the once freely-available GEFS forecasts are now only available on vendor sites.

We should probably develop our own custom teleconnection indices based on how anomalous the raw 500mb height anomalies are. I like using the NAEFS site for finding record minimums and maximums. Plus we can also use how many meters above and below the 500 mb heights are. The forecast for next week is showing up as a 5 sigma block near Alaska which would be a record for this time of year.


82A371BE-25CB-48CB-9116-9D4B5E24AEBF.thumb.jpeg.3ef718f6c9f981e54955fba514457f50.jpeg

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NYC has yet to drop below 40 degrees so far this season. We will likely drop below 40 degrees on Monday (11/14), making this the second latest sub-40 degree reading on record

Season
First
Value
Missing
Last
Value
Missing
Difference
1938-1939 11-15 (1938) 37 0 04-18 (1939) 39 0 153
1946-1947 11-13 (1946) 38 0 05-10 (1947) 36 0 177
1977-1978 11-12 (1977) 37 0 05-01 (1978) 38 0 169
1916-1917 11-12 (1916) 38 0 05-04 (1917) 38 0 172
1994-1995 11-11 (1994) 38 0 04-10 (1995) 34 0 149
1898-1899 11-11 (1898) 38 0 04-17 (1899) 39 0 156
1961-1962 11-09 (1961) 35 0 04-17 (1962) 34 0 158
1943-1944 11-09 (1943) 38 0 04-15 (1944) 37 0 157
2019-2020 11-08 (2019) 29 0 05-10 (2020) 39 0 183
2017-2018 11-08 (2017) 39 0 04-21 (2018) 39 0 163
1955-1956 11-08 (1955) 38 0 05-17 (1956) 39 0 190
1971-1972 11-07 (1971) 34 0 04-26 (1972) 38 0 170
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