NeffsvilleWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 48 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is definitely going to compound issues. It was a pretty dry summer, but I've recorded almost 10" IMBY since 1 September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 It wobb 1 minute ago, eyes2theskies said: I think it's just about wobble tracking time kids. Yep. It wobbled East along the coast and the last few frames it's back to due north, if not perhaps a hair of a Western wobble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 No doubt the upper Air environment, synoptically becomes unfavorable upon closest approach to Fla, but Cat 3+ hurricanes, in the tropics can create their own inertial envelopes of stability (if you will) which can greatly impede the rate of weakening so long as the TC is not encountering land and the SST's are strongly supportive to TC development. This looks like a classic test-case. Majors are majors for a reason - they can greatly shape the mesoscale atmosphere around them. Let's watch. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at longer range. The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. 2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents should rush all preparations to completion today. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Is it a wobble if it's been doing it for six hours lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian going for the Harvey Jr. award, I see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 NHC issues Vortex Data Message: 83 URNT12 KNHC 271507 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/14:27:20Z B. 22.93 DEG N 083.50 DEG W C. 700 MB 2775 M D. 963 MB E. 150 DEG 5 KT F. NA G. C18 H. 75 KT I. 050 DEG 9 NM 14:24:30Z J. 135 DEG 89 KT K. 047 DEG 14 NM 14:23:00Z L. 78 KT M. 349 DEG 8 NM 14:34:00Z N. 093 DEG 87 KT O. 352 DEG 12 NM 14:35:00Z P. 8 C / 3061 M Q. 14 C / 3055 M R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.75 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 09 MAX FL WIND 94 KT 057 / 7 NM 13:03:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Is it a wobble if it's been doing it for six hours lol Touche. Also, did any model that had Ian at this lat/lon, miss Fla peninsula? Not really a surprise at this point but a LF on the peninsula should be a lock as far as TC weather prediction goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Hurricane Watches are being extended. Should see them populate on www.weather.gov shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian made it across Cuba as well as it could have, but it still lost about 15 mb. Given the great structure, it shouldn't be difficult to re-deepen to where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Based on how Ian looks now structurally, I'm surprised NHC is only forecasting Ian to hit 130mph now. I think that's a bit conservative imo. I get it took a 10mph drop in winds and 13mb increase in pressure but that isn't bad considering hours over mountainous terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Icon with another major landfall near Charleston 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me. ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much? ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The likely of a Charleston hurricane impact seem to be exponentially growing; is there anything atmospherically to prevent it as it looks to be driving far more SE than originally forecast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, ATDoel said: This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me. ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much? ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop. ADT estimates aren't the greatest near land. Give it a few hours for the center to get back over water and the ADT will probably match the dropsondes better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The eye is starting to clear out. Already a stronger looking storm than half an hour ago 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory. This is coming in south of Tampa. In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south. Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion. Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been. This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible. Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario. Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path. Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that sustained hurricane force winds should not be felt on the east coast expect maybe in a few gusts. Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004. Also think it is possible this gets another nudge or two to the right in coming TPC advisories. The southeast trend probably not quite done. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, ATDoel said: This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me. ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much? ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop. Wasn't exactly the lowest point on the island, but it should recover during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This is a great site to follow the radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory. This is coming in south of Tampa. In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south. Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion. Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been. This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible. Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario. Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path. Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that hurricane force should not be felt on east coast expect maybe in a few gusts. Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004. Ft Myers area is just as surge prone, gonna be really bad down there assuming the angle on the NHC forecast happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: This is a great site to follow the radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html Hey nice find, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Some evacuees on I-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory. This is coming in south of Tampa. In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south. Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion. Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been. This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible. Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario. Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path. Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that hurricane force should not be felt on east coast expect maybe in a few gusts. Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004. I think the interaction with Cuba was paradoxically bad news for FL because while weakening the system in the short term, it effectively expands the wind field like an EWRC would have and we are now less likely to see the max sustained winds lowered due to an actual EWRC. Just my two cents.....someone on the west coast of FL is in trouble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida . I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Sportybx said: What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida . I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast . . Find their location for when the latest surge inundation map comes out https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sportybx said: What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida . I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast . . I'd get them out-that's likely in the cross hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This jogs any farther NE Key West is going to have bigger problems no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)That image gives me nightmare flash backs...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Quite a bit of lightning in the eye wall right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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