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Tracking the Tropics


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51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Was I in a coma? I thought this was headed into the Yucatán or Florida panhandle?

Could still be a panhandle storm. GFS is still in that area on op and ensembles. Both Euro and GFS are east last few days.

I believe a couple of posters said no to the Yucatán when brought up but it may have been jokingly…

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31 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Incredible. Lucky thing that's a fairly sparsely populated part of the world.

Hurricane Sandy, “Perfect Storm” like evolution but significantly worse. It’s a full month earlier, Fiona is a stronger storm and waters are way warmer than normal on its way up. If this can really be 930mb at landfall up there, wonder how much of Sable Island would even be left. Another question is where there may be surge gauges to catch how high it gets. In any place that can funnel in a surge it’ll be insane. I think the highest surges from Sandy were 12-13 feet in the sheltered bays like Raritan Bay and this will be worse. Miraculous is right that it’s not directly or right-siding any major population center. 

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For all the research I did, I've yet to come across a storm surge forecast here. That's pretty crazy considering that the eastern shore of Cape Breton is going to take the brunt of the surge. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place, but the CHC site doesn't have anything and we know that the NHC is big on talking surge. 

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The Euro is showing another monster trough in the 18z run picking up Hermine (or Ian?). I certainly wouldn't bet on anything, but given the prevailing pattern this season, this might be one of our best chances at something tropical for the next few years.

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I wasn’t sure on what size will be when it hits RI but the angle should be south which is solid and I’m hopeful for 10 feet breakers .  There won’t be many unsuspecting swimmers out tommorrow , as it will be 60 at beach but that is always funny to see if a swell has 5 min breaks between sets
 
Interesting to see the readings on the buoys down south. Bermuda (~33 ft) and Hatteras buoys have been solidly above forecast. 14 sec energy has started to show in RI waters, above initial forecasts. Shouod get up to 17 plus tomorrow.
https://playbuoy.web.app/
^Good buoy UI which shows buoy readings with full component breakdown and comparison to gfs wave forecast for that buoy location.d57f888d7c2e1b04f3ee27b3d8542125.jpg

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

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My in-laws are in Dartmouth. What are your feelings about the Halifax-Dartmouth area?
seems like they will be spared the worst of the winds? Y

I’m not far from there. The worst will definitely be east of here. Concern is heavy rain, which we should be able to handle due to our rain deficit. Might get some localized flooding with high rates but should drain off. Winds will be in the 60’s mph for gusts. Probably a few rogue gusts into the 70’s and possibly 80’s. I’m expecting a Juan type experience but boy are Cape Breton and PEI going to take this on the chin. Bad here. Ugly for them.
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42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For all the research I did, I've yet to come across a storm surge forecast here. That's pretty crazy considering that the eastern shore of Cape Breton is going to take the brunt of the surge. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place, but the CHC site doesn't have anything and we know that the NHC is big on talking surge. 

After this storm they will, trust me. At the end of the day surge will be the biggest story from this. The fetch this will create is immense due to the expanding size and pre-existing intensity. Again thankfully it isn't a 100 mile or west track or that surge would be headed into Halifax and that would.... suck.

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33 minutes ago, drstuess said:

Interesting to see the readings on the buoys down south. Bermuda (~33 ft) and Hatteras buoys have been solidly above forecast. 14 sec energy has started to show in RI waters, above initial forecasts. Shouod get up to 17 plus tomorrow.
https://playbuoy.web.app/
^Good buoy UI which shows buoy readings with full component breakdown and comparison to gfs wave forecast for that buoy location.d57f888d7c2e1b04f3ee27b3d8542125.jpg

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

I’m heading down to RI tomorrow. The swell just bumped a little at the Texas tower bouy About 50 miles S of Long Island . 6 ft @ 14 seconds which is a larger breaking wave and that will build .  I anticipate a peak tommorrow around 9 feet at 16 seconds which I think is up to a 15 foot face  

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58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For all the research I did, I've yet to come across a storm surge forecast here. That's pretty crazy considering that the eastern shore of Cape Breton is going to take the brunt of the surge. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place, but the CHC site doesn't have anything and we know that the NHC is big on talking surge. 

Where you gonna set up for your chase? Louisbourg area?

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Just now, Hoth said:

Where you gonna set up for your chase? Louisbourg area?

That was the original plan. It was about 35ft ASL so I figured it’d be fine from surge. Hotel decided to shut down and I don’t really blame them given the topography there and lack of guidance on surge potential. 

When I chase I have multiple options so now I’m on the other side of Cape Breton. Probably not ideal because for higher end wind because I’m on the left side of the track, but what I trade with wind (which probably isn’t much based on what I see so far) I gain with a closer center pass. Hopefully.

No matter what, this is undoubtedly going to be a high end event for this region. Potential all timer. 

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