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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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Not much to track, so we reminisce....

 

The wee hours of this morning represent the 30th anniversary of the first meteorological event that I ever pulled an all-nighter for in the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in south Florida. Even as an 11 year old, I couldn't fathom the scenes of destruction that came out of there and it took me decades to comprehend the gravity of what would have taken place had that storm made landfall about a mere 10 mi to the north, in downtown Miami.
It will happen at some point.

Screen Shot 2022-08-24 at 12.28.15 AM.png

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I do remember the initial reports in the Miami area were “this isn’t so bad..” 

However later on that day, they started getting reports out of the Homestead area of complete devastation. That’s when the aerial images started to appear on the news.

Katrina was similar in the reporting too. “Oh the city looks to have been spared…....”  A few hours later it was flooded. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I do remember the initial reports in the Miami area were “this isn’t so bad..” 

However later on that day, they started getting reports out of the Homestead area of complete devastation. That’s when the aerial images started to appear on the news.

Katrina was similar in the reporting too. “Oh the city looks to have been spared…....”  A few hours later it was flooded. 

Relative bullet dodged in both instances...Katrina really weakened and veered east, as it ended up a glorified N GOM collapser.

Andrew just whiffed Miami to the south.

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My clearest memory was listening to the hurricane center in Coral Gables as they reported a gust of 164 mph, followed by a very audible crash as the radar dome blew over.  Several days later, we were supposed to get siggy RA plus storm force winds from the remnants, got some sprinkles and winds 20-30, not enough to cancel a bass-fishing day with fun-only "contest" in Newcastle, all fish released after measuring.

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11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My clearest memory was listening to the hurricane center in Coral Gables as they reported a gust of 164 mph, followed by a very audible crash as the radar dome blew over.  Several days later, we were supposed to get siggy RA plus storm force winds from the remnants, got some sprinkles and winds 20-30, not enough to cancel a bass-fishing day with fun-only "contest" in Newcastle, all fish released after measuring.

I remember seeing a young Cantore and his afro sitting in the forecast office....back before his field days.

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22 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

@butterfish55 lived through this.

Can confirm....Freshman year at UMiami.  Arrived on campus and moved into my dorm and Andrew hit early the next morning.  The NHC at that time was located right across the street on US1.  Their last recorded windspeed was 142 mph before they stopped reporting.   Campus was pretty much destroyed.  After 2 days they closed campus for 2 (maybe 3?) weeks and told everybody to go home.  It was an amazing storm.  I'll never forget the sound of the wind...Like sitting above the wing of an airplane while it's taking off.

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1 hour ago, butterfish55 said:

Can confirm....Freshman year at UMiami.  Arrived on campus and moved into my dorm and Andrew hit early the next morning.  The NHC at that time was located right across the street on US1.  Their last recorded windspeed was 142 mph before they stopped reporting.   Campus was pretty much destroyed.  After 2 days they closed campus for 2 (maybe 3?) weeks and told everybody to go home.  It was an amazing storm.  I'll never forget the sound of the wind...Like sitting above the wing of an airplane while it's taking off.

Were you scared? 

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

East scraper FTL. Those up the valley tracks are hard to come by. Though that might be too far west for you lol. 

Gloria tracked out there an it was pretty good in this area. The wind field expands to the east, while contracting to the west with extratropical transition.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Always instills a lot of confidence when you need to long for a DGEX like extension in order to see the potential fruits of the season.

I don't even agree - not sure what the poster is looking at.  That circulation mode wouldn't allow an EC engagement.    But not sure exactly what they are seeing. 

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NHC seems quite hog-tied to the models in recent era.   I noticed this behavior began some .. 7 or so years ago, where they don't pull the trigger on Invests regions, unless the models emerge a cyclone in that same vicinity.

It's purely a statistical move, I suspect.  Though not sure ... they may be able to prove the models have crossed over a skill threshold, where/when they now can project discrete regions of interest with superior ability over human observation-based extrapolations.  Fine... you use what works.

But looking out over the MDR since yesterday... they carry on with two, low chance Invests.  One near 65W over the eastern Caribbean, the other near the same latitude way east near the Cape Verdi Islands.    The vast region in between ...?  Nothing -

Meanwhile, there has been a persistent deep convective event existing in perpetuity ... in the vast region in between. One that now appears to be taking on cyclonic motion on higher res vis imagery as the dawn swept over the Basin.

They may right.  This isn't intended to cast shade or doubt, or deride their skill and efforts...It's just that it's a little head scratching at times like these, when they're holding onto coughing entities while ignoring the health of the other contender.  

Now watch... just because I post this missive... in 2 hours flat it'll disappear in spite of 24 to 30 hour of perpetuity... and the other two will explode - typical.   They probably have some kind of super ensemble regression algorithms or some Sci Fi shit going on to deduce stuff, were as we the hoi polloi celebrate our egos as prognosticators by utilizing the granular crap we get for free on the cartoon web sites.  ...so whatever.  

I "think" the eastern Caribbean disturbance might be the one the overnight GFS solutions eventually bomb in the Gulf - I mean, I don't deny the disturbance is actually there. Nor abase needing to monitor it.  I just wonder if this might be a rare situ where the mid MDR feature, being ignored, dark-horses the spin-up race. SAL does not leap out as being very preventative per Wisc.edu, nor does the relative shear in that region.   

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I'm just in complete "believe when see" mode with respect to the tropics right now. I don't care to look, or even discuss any model output and you frankly couldn't pay me two give a rat's ass until something actually develops and is flourishing on the map in real time.  I just have no interest in the latest 240 hour artifact of your laptop whipping up the virtual Gulf.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just in complete "believe when see" mode with respect to the tropics right now. I don't care to look, or even discuss any model output and you frankly couldn't pay me two give a rat's ass until something actually develops and is on the map and flourishing. 

Wow ..someone's in a huffy mode today    lol

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