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Tracking the Tropics

40/70 Benchmark

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

When I was down there last fall the whole place seemed like it would flood with water given 5+ foot increase in water.  I’m sure many areas are 10-20 feet up but just has that “barrier island” vibe.

Without having visited myself, this was my thought as well.  I strongly encouraged them to leave today, especially since they're only planning on staying until Saturday anyways.  They said "we'll park the car in a high spot".  Ok, good luck with that.

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On 10/3/2022 at 11:05 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:


It def. was not a 5 at LF, but I don't think Fort Myers Beach really cares-

Or would know any difference whatsoever if it were a 5, or not.   Obviously Just semantics at that point…storm was as incredible as any Category 5 that ever hit the U.S.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Won't become much but weird track 


the 06z GFS operational takes a modest reflection of this Invest above, and moves it along that similar trajectory to an eventual pass right over Cape Cod.  It will be passing over the G-string heat content during that journey - if it stays... - but I'm not sure of the other metrics.  Whatever they're sayin'

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On 10/20/2022 at 6:21 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

We close the book on 2022


that mention of " -hail-" there ...hm.  What does that mean? right -

It's not a tropical system in the modern sense/definition/science, if it's producing 'hail'.   May have been Sandy type deal?  Where a purer tropical system got sucked into an early season coastal synoptic evolution - in other words going hybrid...very quickly in the imagination.  Plausible, if not possible, the account was merely a powerful nor-easter, with one of these early season high pressures elephant asses lobing its way through Ontario over-top.  980 mb bomb with a 1045 mb over-top would get the point across, and the 'hail'? - could just as well have been sleety rain.

They don't talk about temperatures - that would help clarify matters.  But they do have a "state of the art advanced system" of weather type classification system known to exist in "1770" ... I mean, I'm constantly overhearing J.Q. Public piling in out of a cold November rain, going, 'ugh - there hail out there' circa 2020.  Plus, the excerpt mentions N-NE wind...  'usually' associated with tropical systems at CT-ME latitude, they are moving like a bat out hell ( particularly back then barely post the Mid Evil age cold centuries ... when the westerlies are likely activated by October 20s ). Speculating from a climate perspective there, but if was cane it was like moving fast, which the west side wind velocities attenuate due to vector addition/subtraction.  

I dunno...  "hail"  ... "less than clear/reliable definition cataloguing" ... "N/NE wind trajectories" and in a sense, "980" mb is a very nice climate cozy depth for a late Octo coastal bomb.. Probably was 970 leaving East Port Maine, and 964 up there west of NF.. 

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