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Tracking the Tropics


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You know, I've been wondering if there might be a connection between the eruption and the bizarre tropical lack of activity, and the brutal droughts across the northern hemisphere this year. I don't know enough about such things to weigh in in a meaningful way, but the breadth of these problems across China, the U.S. and Europe simultaneously seems so broad as to merit speculation.

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A couple articles I read believe volcanic eruptions can shift the ITCZ and/or lower SST/increase wind shear (however for this theory volcanoes that erupted only during El Nino were tested). From my understanding, no major eruptions occurred during a La Nina episode on record. I also read, similar to Raindance that Hunga Tonga had more aerosol forcing which has a larger impact. I pulled up some composites to see if anything was visible and you can make a case that convergence along the ITCZ isn't as strong as last year but I may just be grasping at straws since I don't notice a shift per se. There is noticeable veering >=10N and backing <5N which would support a weaker ITCZ in the Atlantic. Who knows...                     

                             ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif.90f943ea6ad1ba75d7fa2138012686b7.gif

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I also know this figure has been circulating but it's definitely interesting that we have this going on in the Srn Hemi and minimum tropical activity albeit things slowly picking up (for the time being). I'd be interested in any study that comes out linking hemispheric connections when it comes to volcanic eruptions. On a side note SAL & TUTTs have been cyclone killers this season. Parts of the NW Saharan Desert & western Sahel drier and hotter than normal this past month which could help generate more dust.

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13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What happens to a system that moves right up the Gulf of California?

I've wondered this myself upon occasion, but historically ... I haven't found enough of them that precisely motioned along the Gulf's axis - assuming that would be required. Some were close, but all I've seen happen to cut across it at oblate angles - but even that would cause a TC to decay. 

The Baja side of Gulf of California has a cordillera that ranges to some 3,xxx terrain heights in the mid-south, to nearly 9,xxx in the north, despite the fact that the widest breadth of the entire Baja ranges no more than 100 miles nearing the U.S. border, to just 50 miles at other points along its extension.  The Gulf its self only rangers from 70 to 125 (appr.)  

On the eastern side of the Gulf, the Mexico ...

It may be simply a matter of a TC never having perfectly collocated along the axis of the Gulf, such that it's core is not inhibited by these near by terrain features.  TCs come in different sizes, but by the time a TC gets to the latitudes of the mid and upper extension of the Gulf, it would be larger and thus the width of it's physical core is likely a tricky fit.   To mention, air is having trouble moving from the outside of the core, to the inner region, due to those terrain blocking on either side.  

Just a supposition ... but, should a TC enter the mouth of the Gulf and move precisely up the central axis ...while accelerating to a very fast forward motion, it's unclear how much of that would actually make "landfall" at the head waters... but, the miasma of the atmospheric density associated with the transport would probably 'tsunamis' a huge rain event into the lower California/U.S. as it arrived. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't believe how quiet it has been. What a face plant for tropical forecasters. By no means meant to be an insult...just that this has caught everyone off guard.

I think you were close to nailing it several weeks ago when you mentioned CC ... yup - been thinking so, myself .. for several years.   Just waiting for this to happen and now it is - not sure it's just randomness.

Hypothesis:  With the noted changes in the summer time hemisphere ( circulation totality) (that are attributed to CC -) ... the TC sounding is in trouble.   It's not so much the thermodynamics of it - although I suspect it is too being affected - but there is odd shearing mechanics everywhere.  

It has to do with HC expansion to be blunt.  Folks ( directed at the straw man) need to be aware that expansion in the context of HC does not mean a stronger Hadley Cell.  The circulation in fact weakens in strength, while conserving total mass transport by spatial increase.  This breaks down the strength of the trades below the 500 mb to the sfc...  Metaphorically, it 'hole - punches' the interior of the circulation domain space, too.  Both circumstances that are hostile to TC genesis due to shearing tendencies.  

This has ramifications spanning seasons.   We head into winters with increased OHE ... and bleed/radiative rates being constant, that sets the table for the following spring and summers to be very warm.   It's making sense - CC is like a battery ...and the ocean being a factor of 4 more capacitance of thermal energy than air, the seas are a pretty solid candidate for the "anodes to that battery". 

But, counter-intuitively, it effects the winters.  The Pacific piss-pool up there meandering around the NE Pac(PDO) is now being blamed on CC, and is likely contributing to the -EPO tendencies in winters.  It also sharpens baroclinic mean potential along the eastern sides of mid latitude continental regions.   That enhances PWAT in adjacent land regions.  ... there's a lot of issues with failing to dissipate oceanic heat content, and many of them are protracted aspects... where aggregate/cumulative over time. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think you were close to nailing it several weeks ago when you mentioned CC ... yup - been thinking so, myself .. for several years.   Just waiting for this to happen and now it is - not sure it's just randomness.

Hypothesis:  With the noted changes in the summer time hemisphere ( circulation totality) (that are attributed to CC -) ... the TC sounding is in trouble.   It's not so much the thermodynamics of it - although I suspect it is too being affected - but there is odd shearing mechanics everywhere.  

It has to do with HC expansion to be blunt.  Folks ( directed at the straw man) need to be aware that expansion in the context of HC does not mean a stronger Hadley Cell.  The circulation in fact weakens in strength, while conserving total mass transport by spatial increase.  This breaks down the strength of the trades below the 500 mb to the sfc...  Metaphorically, it 'hole - punches' the interior of the circulation domain space, too.  Both circumstances that are hostile to TC genesis due to shearing tendencies.  

This has ramifications spanning seasons.   We head into winters with increased OHE ... and bleed/radiative rates being constant, that sets the table for the following spring and summers to be very warm.   It's making sense - CC is like a battery ...and the ocean being a factor of 4 more capacitance of thermal energy than air, the seas are a pretty solid candidate for the "anodes to that battery". 

But, counter-intuitively, it effects the winters.  The Pacific piss-pool up there meandering around the NE Pac(PDO) is now being blamed on CC, and is likely contributing to the -EPO tendencies in winters.  It also sharpens baroclinic mean potential along the eastern sides of mid latitude continental regions.   That enhances PWAT in adjacent land regions.  ... there's a lot of issues with failing to dissipate oceanic heat content, and many of them are protracted aspects... where aggregate/cumulative over time. 

I'm taking it you're not on the Hunga Tonga train (I'm still skeptical myself)? I can't say I agree or disagree with your theory, but I'd be more inclined to think TC activity would wane over a much longer period than a one year turnaround.

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Just now, It&#x27;s Always Sunny said:

I'm taking it you're not on the Hunga Tonga train? I can't say I agree or disagree with your theory, but I'd be more inclined to think TC activity would wane over a much longer period than a one year turnaround.

It's been lower in the Atlantic recently...ACE anyways. It's just a hypothesis, but there has been some speculation that the Hadley cells being screwed around with, may cause lower activity, but you need a bigger sample size.

This year has been SAL and TUTT lows...but I don't know if I can go much beyond that.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's been lower in the Atlantic recently...ACE anyways. It's just a hypothesis, but there has been some speculation that the Hadley cells being screwed around with, may cause lower activity, but you need a bigger sample size.

This year has been SAL and TUTT lows...but I don't know if I can go much beyond that.

Past 20 years we've had some pretty high ACE seasons though but I agree about the potholes TC activity has encountered this year.

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On 9/9/2022 at 10:26 AM, It's Always Sunny said:

Past 20 years we've had some pretty high ACE seasons though but I agree about the potholes TC activity has encountered this year.

Keeping in mind, expanding HC --> summer circulation mode changes?   - that's become more coherent in the last 10 years... It actually began ( empirically ) in the 1990s - I think that's when it was first observed.  Personally I noticed the 1998 super nino was like a gateway and things have been interestingly ( increasingly so..) different, almost subtle, ever since.  

Point being, it's not as detectable 15 years ago as it is now... 

There are obviously other factors that contribute to a season's total favorable or not favorable basal state.   When other aspects may be offsetting ..those become dominant, perhaps then masking a "longer term" HC aspect - I agree with you there.  That would be more likely ( intuitively) over a longer sense ... but it's not the only factor. 

However, if we remove favorable factors and leave the basin open to some sort of stasis that is a weaker HC domain ...it's equally hypothetical ( to me anyway LOL  fwiw - ) that a shitty HC circulation eddy is not as conducive. 

It's a posit - it's fine.  Doesn't have to be right.  Just assessing some sort of logical circuitry.  That's the beginning of science I suppose.  Looking around  ...I don't see any other reason why the Basin would be so productively low.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wait…when we have high activity it’s Climate Change, and when we have no activity, it’s climate change too???  What a joke. 

Bring Winter. 

 

There are circles of people who attribute everything and anything at all to climate change...we finally have one season that fails to meet hyper activity criteria, and out come the conspiracy theories about mother nature. Holy $hit, stab my eyes out with a fork and Hadley me to death.

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On 9/9/2022 at 1:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's been lower in the Atlantic recently...ACE anyways. It's just a hypothesis, but there has been some speculation that the Hadley cells being screwed around with, may cause lower activity, but you need a bigger sample size.

This year has been SAL and TUTT lows...but I don't know if I can go much beyond that.

I don't think ACE has been lower recently....without the numbers in front of me, so maybe I am speaking out of my rear, but I don't believe that to be the case. It's been a pretty damn active 25 years or so. The talk about attributing climate change to one very quiet season is absurd...I mean, theoretically speaking...yes, viable theory..but it's one year. I love how when we get crushed with snow, we await regression like clockwork, but when the 150+ ACE season assembly line finally takes a breather, it must be climate change...what happened to simple regression? Does Mr. Regression not like the tropics? Lol

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