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August 2022


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All the #1 warmest August records around the region will continue to add up to a top 3 or 5 warmest summer for many. So we continue the theme of numerous top 5 to top 10 warmest months and seasons since 2010. This summer will make it 3 in a row for several locations. 
 

7BEB2B57-259C-4B07-A725-34037BE13FF5.thumb.jpeg.46b44ea41d34684cc5880a7cab8e3bfd.jpeg

 

5A3BFB39-883B-423D-8A1D-272CB841D9CB.thumb.jpeg.dd5ee8c1341ae8fe4636fc4f866ef1fe.jpeg

 

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The last 3 days of August are averaging  81degs.(73/90) or +7.5.

Month to date   PENDING UPDATE at NWS

August should end at  PENDING    probably 79.6 +3.5

Reached 84 here late yesterday.

Today:    85-90, wind s. to w., clouds, skuz lifting later, 75 tomorrow AM.

The GFS(GoodForS_it)06Z shows a 100 for the fourth straight run!

75*(98%RH) here at 7am.       79* at Noon.       80*(88%RH) at 2pm-feels like 85.      81*(84%RH) at 4pm.      82*(81%RH) at 4:30pm.

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Dewpoints will be falling to the 40s for thursday and friday, but temps will still be nice and warm in the 80s. It's going to be spectacular late summer weather ... a couple of the nicest days of the year.

 

Models now showing a wrinkle with a possible backdoor front for late in the holiday weekend, but way too early to worry about rain. Seems pretty unlikely as Brian just said. It's so difficult to get any rain around here.

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7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Rough estimate of precipitation totals over the past 60 days. Shows the south shore of Long Island being the driest in the entire region, on par with a portion of the Cape.

hrap-all-neng-60day_total-1688000.thumb.png.141253ff01c972d41fcf0ad19e676a71.png

I'm about two miles south of that 2.9 at KMGJ, it looks a tad high, only 2.09" here over the past 60 days. 

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3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm about two miles south of that 2.9 at KMGJ, it looks a tad high, only 2.09" here over the past 60 days. 

It's a bit high here too since FRG has only had 1.00" since July 1st. It'll blend the precip totals over a space since it doesn't have the resolution to pinpoint exactly where it has and hasn't rained. Though it is good to show where some areas have done better, and worse.

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Tough call on whether the storms will make it to our area tomorrow evening or fall apart before getting here. Definitely a better chance to the west.

Both NAMs kill the activity well west of most of us here.

nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.png

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On 8/28/2022 at 9:03 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


It’s been burned to a crisp. Just more proof that, that’s the issue, as if we needed any.
As bad as the drought is in the city, it’s a whole other level on the south shore. At this rate there will be serious forest damage and the potential for west coast style fires once we get our first strong cold front and NW winds


.

We are burned to a crisp here in the city?

 

If droughts were snowstorms, what we have here is Atlanta with 2 inches of snow.

Travel out west a bit. 

 

 

CA7752C1-9E41-4E92-8CFF-5D615BC06E55.jpeg

AC7AE148-031E-4D0A-8031-AA9C958B6E44.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Fascinating we're seeing such little precip this year after record rains just a year ago.

From one extreme to the next with a short turnaround period. 

Maybe we will get a snowy winter

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23 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I was tempted to weenie that but yes...maybe...

Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend.

WX/PT

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25 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend.

WX/PT

I can envision of sort of whip motion of the long wave pattern with extreme heights and troughs for a time at the inevitable tide-turn of the season's change.  If we can be on the right side of that a couple of times, who knows?  I am not envious of someone who has to make a seasonal forecast though.  Tell you something - a few people have already said 2023/24 is the one to watch (not that that theory is investible at this point.)

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the #1 warmest August records around the region will continue to add up to a top 3 or 5 warmest summer for many. So we continue the theme of numerous top 5 to top 10 warmest months and seasons since 2010. This summer will make it 3 in a row for several locations. 
 

7BEB2B57-259C-4B07-A725-34037BE13FF5.thumb.jpeg.46b44ea41d34684cc5880a7cab8e3bfd.jpeg

 

5A3BFB39-883B-423D-8A1D-272CB841D9CB.thumb.jpeg.dd5ee8c1341ae8fe4636fc4f866ef1fe.jpeg

 

Amazing Albany area is number one while Glens Falls 14 or 36 depending on time, huge difference?

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22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Amazing Albany area is number one while Glens Falls 14 or 36 depending on time, huge difference?

Norfolk CT up in the Litchfield Hills is even more impressive at over +1.0° above the previous warmest August. That’s a +5 departure for that location. You can see the warmest departure area of +5 extending into Dutchess County.

 

Time Series Summary for NORFOLK 2 SW, CT - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 72.4 3
2 2018 70.9 0
3 2001 70.5 4
4 2016 70.2 0
5 2021 69.8 0
6 2005 69.4 0
- 1955 69.4 0
7 2003 69.3 0
- 1973 69.3 0
8 2020 69.1 0
- 1998 69.1 2
- 1988 69.1 2
9 2015 68.7 0
- 2012 68.7 0
- 1947 68.7 3
10 2002 68.6 10


 

A11A83B6-1493-414F-8665-140640C898C0.thumb.png.2adee49e1dfff0f3c3abde9f13f1e5f4.png

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Norfolk CT up in the Litchfield Hills is even more impressive at over +1.0° above the previous warmest August. That’s a +5 departure for that location. You can see the warmest departure area of +5 extending into Dutchess County.

 

Time Series Summary for NORFOLK 2 SW, CT - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 72.4 3
2 2018 70.9 0
3 2001 70.5 4
4 2016 70.2 0
5 2021 69.8 0
6 2005 69.4 0
- 1955 69.4 0
7 2003 69.3 0
- 1973 69.3 0
8 2020 69.1 0
- 1998 69.1 2
- 1988 69.1 2
9 2015 68.7 0
- 2012 68.7 0
- 1947 68.7 3
10 2002 68.6 10


 

A11A83B6-1493-414F-8665-140640C898C0.thumb.png.2adee49e1dfff0f3c3abde9f13f1e5f4.png

 

Looks like mostly an extreme northeast event, At least in our part of the country

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DOES YOUR CHEWING GUM LOSE IT FLAVOR ON THE BEDPOST OVERNIGHT and does your rain gauge count individual raindrops?       All the humidity but no vertical lift for rain here.

1661990400-NOppCFHtoz8.png

 

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IIRC the GFS was showing 100+ (at NYC) in August back in late July and the highest NYC got was 97, so perhaps the GFS does not have the foliage in its toolbox, or maybe it just overdoes heat. That being said, any record from 1881 has got to be in some jeopardy in the modern climate with the current urban heat island compared to 1881.

September 1881 is actually one of the warmest months relative to normal especially when you factor in that urban heat island (which then could not have been much more than 20% of today's version). It stayed warm into the first few days of October and set records both on the 7th (that all-time 101F referenced in the thread) and later in the month on several dates. 

There are a remarkable number of warm Septembers ending in the digit 1, 1891, 1921, 1931, 1961 for the longer term past, all very warm. 1941 had record heat in early October instead (and holds the monthly maximum of 94F at NYC). Both September and October 1971 were quite warm, especially October. 

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Looks like mostly an extreme northeast event, At least in our part of the country

Dueling record heat ridges in the NW and NE in August. But the heat was very extensive across the US this summer. Texas finally got a break after the record June and July heat.


F7B717A6-18D3-49A2-BC82-BB8ACB2EEB39.thumb.png.ba23884afca6051a8e612f9b4d791a52.png

7D128465-846B-4FC0-9EE2-787C43270FE6.thumb.png.42485935b6b9591f51743a1b286e3073.png

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We are burned to a crisp here in the city?
 
If droughts were snowstorms, what we have here is Atlanta with 2 inches of snow.
Travel out west a bit. 
 
 
CA7752C1-9E41-4E92-8CFF-5D615BC06E55.jpeg.8871952ccae2c1f108f68287904b756c.jpeg
AC7AE148-031E-4D0A-8031-AA9C958B6E44.thumb.jpeg.e5e63a460104d6e1f8aa250f45daf6c1.jpeg

I was referring more to the south shore of Long Island which has received significantly less rain. I’ll be happy to take some pictures of vast swaths of dead oaks on the wantagh parkway for you this weekend, when it will be even worse then it was. This is every bit as bad as out west (locally). Just wait until we have 30mph nw winds and low dews in September and one of the barrier islands light up.
For reference the sunrise highway fires


.
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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the #1 warmest August records around the region will continue to add up to a top 3 or 5 warmest summer for many. So we continue the theme of numerous top 5 to top 10 warmest months and seasons since 2010. This summer will make it 3 in a row for several locations. 
 

7BEB2B57-259C-4B07-A725-34037BE13FF5.thumb.jpeg.46b44ea41d34684cc5880a7cab8e3bfd.jpeg

 

5A3BFB39-883B-423D-8A1D-272CB841D9CB.thumb.jpeg.dd5ee8c1341ae8fe4636fc4f866ef1fe.jpeg

 

Remember all those posts on this forum in mid and even late June lamenting  the lack of heat and models showing no 90s for the foreseeable  future.

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31 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Remember all those posts on this forum in mid and even late June lamenting  the lack of heat and models showing no 90s for the foreseeable  future.

Once the June blocking weakened, it was off to the races for the temperatures in July and August.

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