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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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Soo... we're on the doorstop of a coherent regime change again.   This one will be fully integrated.  From top down and bottom up, it will be definitive. 

This trough careening along the 50th parallel of southern Canada, turns right as it nears 90 W ... From there, really plumbs down the 80 longitude line.  By 200 hrs, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs ... other than very minor idiosyncrasies , these sources are remarkable similar - both in this scalar presentation below, but as that ~ time range comes and goes in their respective cinemas. 

image.png.207e945f966e56bfd0aa2e6fbaf643d4.png

A-priori experience, combined with climatology, ...tells me this period may be evolving into a "Bahama Blue" pattern.

Defined by a coastal parallel flow, they may last a week.  What happens is, the summer polar jet reaches it's highest latitude, and that leaves the region beneath in a quasi stationary tug-o-war between WAR exerting west, and this trough above.. - which actually in the process of retrograding toward 90 W. That situates the Eastern Seaboard in a regime featuring deep subtropical air mass training up via a conveyor that straddles the coast. 

On a personal note...that is one of my favorite pattern types.  Days are steamy warm, but seldom big heat.  More of the 86/76 variety. The sky-scapes can be a cloud geek's paradise, with topaz blue, adorned by bright white towering CU streets - just like a Bahamian sky might imagine...  These will be narrow, fast moving, and can bring very heavy, albeit very brief downpours and then the sun reappears mere moments later. The temp and DP don't seem to move much.  This type of regime has only set up maybe 10 times in 30 years ...but, I've seen variations similar to it. It's not either or.

I've always wondered... what that would be like if a Cat 4 hurricane was nearing the SE Bahamas during. But alas... in my decades on this world I have never seen that happen... A flawless non deviating conveyor from Nassau to Mt Washington would constructively lend to a high confidence major impact with very limited dispersive solutions to offer any reasons for distraction.  I don't know why - is there something about that circulation type that is inconsistent with general TC development/maintenance. Maybe in establishing one, physically makes the other less likely.

Anyway... not sure bona fide BB pattern sets up ..but this above looks to match past observation that eventually clicked into place.  There are likely individual members that go into the means above, showing more more parallel flow from the S along the EC.  We'll see if it works out..

But either way, the era of the western heat expulsion into a flat trough with arid continental flow, transporting transparent CB ..otherwise, high heat, is on its way out. 

 

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You may want to look at some of these early AM dates for the warmest BDL overnight. 
image.png

Thanks.  Interestingly, given that the all time record high min is 80 in threadex, all the likely contenders here (89/90/95/06) got wiped out by fropas during the day. Not coincidence I suppose.

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The sun's doing it's magic...

The skies are opened up considerably over the last hour - as mentioned might be possible.  Still lagging across southern VT/NH - they're hillier terrain likely helping that, as those clouds appear like standing wave-form on the looping sat.  It may just take long for to overcome.

But the temps are responding very quickly.   BED is actually 5 ahead of yesterday at the same hour... 83 vs 88.    88/73 but I haven't compared to other sources for rounding nuances.  Doesn't matter. Point's made. 

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14 minutes ago, radarman said:

Thanks.  Interestingly, given that the all time record high min is 80 in threadex, all the likely contenders here (89/90/95/06) got wiped out by fropas during the day. Not coincidence I suppose.

Yeah...to get those all time record high mins you usually need clouds and prefrontal wind to keep the air mixed. That 7/5/90 overnight had a front go through before sunrise and by the following 5z it was down to 67F. Mid 80s almost all night with dews is rough though.

BDL,1990-07-04 21:00,KBDL 042100Z 23012G20KT 10SM CLR 34/21 A2964 RMK SLP036 T03440211 57025
BDL,1990-07-04 22:00,KBDL 042200Z 25011KT 10SM CLR 34/21 A2963 RMK FEW CI N SLP033 T03390211
BDL,1990-07-04 23:00,KBDL 042300Z 19011KT 10SM CLR 33/22 A2964 RMK FEW CI N SLP036 T03280217
BDL,1990-07-05 00:00,KBDL 050000Z 19008KT 10SM SCT250 32/22 A2966 RMK SLP041 8/001 T03170217 53005
BDL,1990-07-05 01:00,KBDL 050100Z 19011KT 10SM SCT150 SCT250 31/22 A2965 RMK HAZY SLP039 T03060217
BDL,1990-07-05 02:00,KBDL 050200Z 20010KT 7SM SCT150 31/22 A2966 RMK SLP043 T03060217
BDL,1990-07-05 03:00,KBDL 050300Z 25009KT 6SM DZ SCT150 BKN250 31/22 A2966 RMK SLP043 8/071 T03060217 52002
BDL,1990-07-05 04:00,KBDL 050400Z 25009KT 6SM DZ FEW250 29/22 A2964 RMK SLP034 T02940217
BDL,1990-07-05 05:00,KBDL 050500Z 21008KT 6SM DZ FEW250 29/22 A2963 RMK SLP031 T02940217
BDL,1990-07-05 06:00,KBDL 050600Z 20008KT 6SM DZ BKN250 29/21 A2963 RMK SLP032 8/001 T02890211 57010
BDL,1990-07-05 07:00,KBDL 050700Z 17005KT 6SM DZ BKN250 27/21 A2962 RMK SLP029 T02720211
BDL,1990-07-05 08:00,KBDL 050800Z 29013KT 6SM DZ BKN250 30/20 A2965 RMK WND 26V32/ SLP037 T03000200 59086
BDL,1990-07-05 09:00,KBDL 050900Z 30012KT 10SM BKN150 OVC250 29/19 A2964 RMK SLP036 8/071 T02940189 53003
BDL,1990-07-05 10:00,KBDL 051000Z 30011KT 15SM BKN150 OVC250 29/19 A2964 RMK SLP034 T02890189
BDL,1990-07-05 11:00,KBDL 051100Z 30015KT 15SM SCT150 OVC250 29/16 A2968 RMK SLP048 T02890161
BDL,1990-07-05 12:00,KBDL 051200Z 29010KT 20SM SCT140 BKN250 28/16 A2969 RMK SLP053 8/071 T02780161 53017
BDL,1990-07-05 13:00,KBDL 051300Z 26011KT 20SM BKN140 BKN250 28/17 A2970 RMK SLP056 T02830167

 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Front is through BTV… 64/61.

Just a wild boundary between cool and absolute torch.

 

it doesn't help that there's a forecaster that lurks in that office that loves him/herself some colder adjectives, having [apparently ] lesser reasons required to get there LOL

"Unseasonably chilly" - let's let the still potent, < 15th August sun work through a clearing from a 65 platform? 

I think it will be cooler - it'll be interesting to see how much so.   Like "seasonably cool" is a kind of reserved turn of phrase for the way this looks that is available to the forecast vernacular. 

I suppose in his defense...it's denser clouds - not just summit capping - just N of the region over SW QUE so if that evolves in and you upslope... yeah.  But right now it looks like sun is winning on the hi res loops.  

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...to get those all time record high mins you usually need clouds and prefrontal wind to keep the air mixed. That 7/5/90 overnight had a front go through before sunrise and by the following 5z it was down to 67F. Mid 80s almost all night with dews is rough though.

BDL,1990-07-04 21:00,KBDL 042100Z 23012G20KT 10SM CLR 34/21 A2964 RMK SLP036 T03440211 57025
BDL,1990-07-04 22:00,KBDL 042200Z 25011KT 10SM CLR 34/21 A2963 RMK FEW CI N SLP033 T03390211
BDL,1990-07-04 23:00,KBDL 042300Z 19011KT 10SM CLR 33/22 A2964 RMK FEW CI N SLP036 T03280217
BDL,1990-07-05 00:00,KBDL 050000Z 19008KT 10SM SCT250 32/22 A2966 RMK SLP041 8/001 T03170217 53005
BDL,1990-07-05 01:00,KBDL 050100Z 19011KT 10SM SCT150 SCT250 31/22 A2965 RMK HAZY SLP039 T03060217
BDL,1990-07-05 02:00,KBDL 050200Z 20010KT 7SM SCT150 31/22 A2966 RMK SLP043 T03060217
BDL,1990-07-05 03:00,KBDL 050300Z 25009KT 6SM DZ SCT150 BKN250 31/22 A2966 RMK SLP043 8/071 T03060217 52002
BDL,1990-07-05 04:00,KBDL 050400Z 25009KT 6SM DZ FEW250 29/22 A2964 RMK SLP034 T02940217
BDL,1990-07-05 05:00,KBDL 050500Z 21008KT 6SM DZ FEW250 29/22 A2963 RMK SLP031 T02940217
BDL,1990-07-05 06:00,KBDL 050600Z 20008KT 6SM DZ BKN250 29/21 A2963 RMK SLP032 8/001 T02890211 57010
BDL,1990-07-05 07:00,KBDL 050700Z 17005KT 6SM DZ BKN250 27/21 A2962 RMK SLP029 T02720211
BDL,1990-07-05 08:00,KBDL 050800Z 29013KT 6SM DZ BKN250 30/20 A2965 RMK WND 26V32/ SLP037 T03000200 59086
BDL,1990-07-05 09:00,KBDL 050900Z 30012KT 10SM BKN150 OVC250 29/19 A2964 RMK SLP036 8/071 T02940189 53003
BDL,1990-07-05 10:00,KBDL 051000Z 30011KT 15SM BKN150 OVC250 29/19 A2964 RMK SLP034 T02890189
BDL,1990-07-05 11:00,KBDL 051100Z 30015KT 15SM SCT150 OVC250 29/16 A2968 RMK SLP048 T02890161
BDL,1990-07-05 12:00,KBDL 051200Z 29010KT 20SM SCT140 BKN250 28/16 A2969 RMK SLP053 8/071 T02780161 53017
BDL,1990-07-05 13:00,KBDL 051300Z 26011KT 20SM BKN140 BKN250 28/17 A2970 RMK SLP056 T02830167

 

I was wondering if in addition to frontal cloud capping ( at night ..) there is also some WC compression ahead of the boundary that assists, too.  But of the two, probably the ceiling factor is the more directly measurable -

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Just from orbit ...I don't know how easy it is even see 80.   I mean the climate numbers show that's rare, but I wonder if some of that is just Earth.

I mean, comparing other hot regions across the continent... outside of the SW, it seems even in Oklahoma during some of those heat blasts from earlier this summer, they were getting down to 81 ... 106/70 or something whack and then 81/75 at 6am the next morning... back to 105

I suspect it's just hard to do that around here and we chasing something that's even less likely observed than the elusive 100 F high. 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is real heat out here. Contractor had to stop work the house was so hot. 

VP2 says it feels like 110 outside lol

They'll be in a pub  with tall boys this afternoon then late or unusually quiet tomorrow morning with hang-overs.

I was on house-painting crews back in the day ... like waay back there - 20 something's - and we didn't "waste" a rain or heat free pass afternoon. No way -  woo hoo.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They'll be in a pub  with tall boys this afternoon then late or unusually quiet tomorrow morning with hang-overs.

I was on house-painting crews back in the day ... like waay back there - 20 something's - and we didn't "waste" a rain or heat free pass afternoon. No way -  woo hoo.  

 

I wouldn’t blame ‘em. I’ve been outside all morning and I usually like testing my physical limits of heat and cold—it’s rough for me.

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Meh, 0.19" since late last night

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

0.15" here, but that includes the 0.08" that fell 9:10-9:30 this morning.  So much for the 1-2" thinking - there's nothing showing upstream, so unless the WF slides north to push us into the humid 80s (currently in low 60s) and brings convection, we're cooked for this system.  Thursday RA seems to be slipping away as well.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Soo... we're on the doorstop of a coherent regime change again.   This one will be fully integrated.  From top down and bottom up, it will be definitive. 

This trough careening along the 50th parallel of southern Canada, turns right as it nears 90 W ... From there, really plumbs down the 80 longitude line.  By 200 hrs, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs ... other than very minor idiosyncrasies , these sources are remarkable similar - both in this scalar presentation below, but as that ~ time range comes and goes in their respective cinemas. 

image.png.207e945f966e56bfd0aa2e6fbaf643d4.png

A-priori experience, combined with climatology, ...tells me this period may be evolving into a "Bahama Blue" pattern.

Defined by a coastal parallel flow, they may last a week.  What happens is, the summer polar jet reaches it's highest latitude, and that leaves the region beneath in a quasi stationary tug-o-war between WAR exerting west, and this trough above.. - which actually in the process of retrograding toward 90 W. That situates the Eastern Seaboard in a regime featuring deep subtropical air mass training up via a conveyor that straddles the coast. 

On a personal note...that is one of my favorite pattern types.  Days are steamy warm, but seldom big heat.  More of the 86/76 variety. The sky-scapes can be a cloud geek's paradise, with topaz blue, adorned by bright white towering CU streets - just like a Bahamian sky might imagine...  These will be narrow, fast moving, and can bring very heavy, albeit very brief downpours and then the sun reappears mere moments later. The temp and DP don't seem to move much.  This type of regime has only set up maybe 10 times in 30 years ...but, I've seen variations similar to it. It's not either or.

I've always wondered... what that would be like if a Cat 4 hurricane was nearing the SE Bahamas during. But alas... in my decades on this world I have never seen that happen... A flawless non deviating conveyor from Nassau to Mt Washington would constructively lend to a high confidence major impact with very limited dispersive solutions to offer any reasons for distraction.  I don't know why - is there something about that circulation type that is inconsistent with general TC development/maintenance. Maybe in establishing one, physically makes the other less likely.

Anyway... not sure bona fide BB pattern sets up ..but this above looks to match past observation that eventually clicked into place.  There are likely individual members that go into the means above, showing more more parallel flow from the S along the EC.  We'll see if it works out..

But either way, the era of the western heat expulsion into a flat trough with arid continental flow, transporting transparent CB ..otherwise, high heat, is on its way out. 

 

Oh look. The western US ridge and east cost trough are setting up again for Aug, Sept, & Oct. Then will magically go poof by time December rolls around.

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17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Oh look. The western US ridge and east cost trough are setting up again for Aug, Sept, & Oct. Then will magically go poof by time December rolls around.

Could indeed be the beginnings of the seasonal "pre-lapsing" phenomenon.   I'm hands-throwing expecting a synoptic -scaled October snow potential, or at minimum an atmosphere capable of hosting one ... Folks might have noticed an emerging leitmotif

yup...

I think this for the time being is more of an App. stalled trough that decays into a shear axis spanning these next 7 to 10 days.  So probably more like S of SSW coastal DP flow.  

But the "act" initially of how the atmosphere is putting us into this immediate transition, yeah it does smack of what you're implying like an early suggestion of intent LOL.

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7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I certainly don’t expect thunderstorms with any regularity but it’s incredible how every rain opportunity has dried up on my doorstep practically

I'm tentatively more hopeful moving forward through mid month.  Regime change that looks to have more wet opportunities -we'll see.

But if we do succeed a deep layer subtropical sourced connection up the EC ... it would be a neat trick to get through that without rain chances.  Even if no organized QPF surges, the lower heights SW while we transport warm humid air N, would likely cause locally corrective downpours with more total areal coverage. 

Except for Tolland of course.... Could be a Cat 3 hurricane hooking E of Willamantic and Tolland puts up 0.00

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm tentatively more hopeful moving forward through mid month.  Regime change that looks to have more wet opportunities -we'll see.

But if we do succeed a deep layer subtropical sourced connection up the EC ... it would be a neat trick to get through that without rain chances.  Even if no organized QPF surges, the lower heights SW while we transport warm humid air N, would likely to locally corrective downpours with more total coverage. 

Some rain and a tropical threat or two would do nicely lol 

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