Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2022 Share Posted August 9, 2022 Soo... we're on the doorstop of a coherent regime change again. This one will be fully integrated. From top down and bottom up, it will be definitive. This trough careening along the 50th parallel of southern Canada, turns right as it nears 90 W ... From there, really plumbs down the 80 longitude line. By 200 hrs, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs ... other than very minor idiosyncrasies , these sources are remarkable similar - both in this scalar presentation below, but as that ~ time range comes and goes in their respective cinemas. A-priori experience, combined with climatology, ...tells me this period may be evolving into a "Bahama Blue" pattern. Defined by a coastal parallel flow, they may last a week. What happens is, the summer polar jet reaches it's highest latitude, and that leaves the region beneath in a quasi stationary tug-o-war between WAR exerting west, and this trough above.. - which actually in the process of retrograding toward 90 W. That situates the Eastern Seaboard in a regime featuring deep subtropical air mass training up via a conveyor that straddles the coast. On a personal note...that is one of my favorite pattern types. Days are steamy warm, but seldom big heat. More of the 86/76 variety. The sky-scapes can be a cloud geek's paradise, with topaz blue, adorned by bright white towering CU streets - just like a Bahamian sky might imagine... These will be narrow, fast moving, and can bring very heavy, albeit very brief downpours and then the sun reappears mere moments later. The temp and DP don't seem to move much. This type of regime has only set up maybe 10 times in 30 years ...but, I've seen variations similar to it. It's not either or. I've always wondered... what that would be like if a Cat 4 hurricane was nearing the SE Bahamas during. But alas... in my decades on this world I have never seen that happen... A flawless non deviating conveyor from Nassau to Mt Washington would constructively lend to a high confidence major impact with very limited dispersive solutions to offer any reasons for distraction. I don't know why - is there something about that circulation type that is inconsistent with general TC development/maintenance. Maybe in establishing one, physically makes the other less likely. Anyway... not sure bona fide BB pattern sets up ..but this above looks to match past observation that eventually clicked into place. There are likely individual members that go into the means above, showing more more parallel flow from the S along the EC. We'll see if it works out.. But either way, the era of the western heat expulsion into a flat trough with arid continental flow, transporting transparent CB ..otherwise, high heat, is on its way out. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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