TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 My first guess here. I expect a really strong thump off the immediate shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first guess here. I expect a really strong thump off the immediate shore. Take Em down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I’m not sure a foot happens except maybe in a narrow area across VT and NH? It’s been awhile since we’ve had one so time to dust off the climo with these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take Em down. I knew you’d say that . I’m sure there will be a last minute CJ element where you score double digits. Book it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Big hit for CNE Fixed. Sell 8-10” SoP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take Em down. by half Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I knew you’d say that . I’m sure there will be a last minute CJ element where you score double digits. Book it That’s not how these work. The sleet/dry slots etc rush in before you know it. Those snow maps will certainly be overdone in most spots. If this ticked south maybe those amounts happen. It’s early so what you and I think doesn’t mean much. I guess my point is not to be too aggressive with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, 512high said: by half Scott? Maybe not were you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, subdude said: Friday's looking better and better for us. Gonna be one for the ages.....well maybe the season anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first guess here. I expect a really strong thump off the immediate shore. We see you’ve attended George’s pep rally. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not sure a foot happens except maybe in a narrow area across VT and NH? It’s been awhile since we’ve had one so time to dust off the climo with these. thinking 5 to 8 here then sleet and a little zr.. but this year that would be a great storm here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Depends how deep the omega is on these. Sometimes you get monster omega punching up into 500mb and you get good snow growth anyway (ala 12/16/07) but most of the time these have crappier snowgrowth. It’ll be heavy baking powder for several hours which is good for base building but not great for maximizing accumulations. This could also trend another 75-100 miles north so that most of SNE ends up with 2-4” before the flip…that’s another possibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: thinking 5 to 8 here then sleet and a little zr.. but this year that would be a great storm here It will be a nice event north of the pike even if not all snow. A mess south of the pike. That’s my first guess lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX pnc with a 100% chance of snow Friday this far out is interesting Thursday Night Snow likely before 11pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 21. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Enjoy having a vacation week to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We see you’ve attended George’s pep rally. ...and cracked open numerous kegs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It will be a nice event north of the pike even if not all snow. A mess south of the pike. That’s my first guess lol. Yup--expectations really in check on here. When all is said and done, I think we'll be congratulating Brian/Lava/Pit2/Jeff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I would sell locking in anything over 8” for any particular location yet. North looks better but lots of adjusting to come. Historically these favor that strip along Rte 2 north into S Maine Bread. Bread and butter. With a sprinkle of icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Enjoy having a vacation week to track! Right now I’m thinking not a lot of big model swings like we have been seeing this season. But small changes can make a big difference between 2-4” and 8-12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Most of these end up being a 6-8"/8-10" deal with someone seeing 12", Totals will be uniform over areas that stay all snow, This is typical SWFE in the areas that end up favored, These also start sooner then modeled and areas that mix will do that as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Update: There's a limit to how far N the lower tropospheric reflection of this mess can track.. The 06z operational GFS is just about pressed against that proverbial wall. This is not an extraordinarily, mechanically powerful surface reflection/cyclone. It's moving up to a position roughly ... mid/C-E Pennsylvania, and at that point the BL resistance will physically impeded 1012 mb and cyclonic forcing from penetrating any further. That is why this is forced E ... and these annotations further below, showing the oblong low structure S of LI ( really the "quasi Miller B" behavior of this thing ) as 'path of lesser resistance'. The 00z Euro arrived ....other than very minor differences ( thanks Pivotal ), the projected 12z Friday position of synoptic features ( and assorted artistry in ptypes and what-nots), essentially line up beautifully. This is a well-formulating consensus here ( now watch it blow up in the next run... lol) I also stress that we tend to hyper focused on details from run to run, because IMBYism gets in the way of objectivity. Noisy moves in run become 'large shits' to the observer. But outside our jilted realms abandonment apoplexies ... at D4.5 ( 00z run)? -these are purely acceptable difference and a very good agreement here: Also,... I pointed out a couple of aspects that still persist in the guidance as of overnight.. This is perhaps a unique'er SWFE than the "climate SWFE" or typical model for those. This is bringing an usually deep tropospheric ingested air mass from the subtropics. The overnight PWAT anomaly product (GFS) maintained an inflated swath pressed up against the lift axis of the boundary ... sending that upglide. That, combined with the intensity and 300 mb S lateral exit jet region situated over central/NNE, might give this a vector toward over-achieving relative to said SWFE model. It's admittedly speculative ...like all prognostic 'art' ultimately is... but it may explain or partially account for these 10+" numbers we're getting persistently graced with in the model galleries. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would sell locking in anything over 8” for any particular location yet. North looks better but lots of adjusting to come. Historically these favor that strip along Rte 2 north into S Maine Bread. Bread and butter. With a sprinkle of icing. Would be nice if that were US Rt 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 46 minutes ago, 512high said: by half Scott? For us in Nashua, I think 6-8" is always a good starting point with these systems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, tamarack said: Would be nice if that were US Rt 2. Could end up there in time. Last one came north even as the GFS was insisting it would have good snows well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I’ll be in Utah so i don’t care too much. Buy I’d like to see SVT resorts get a little revenge after the 2/4 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I don't think I've ever seen a system like this where the shore didn't capitulate to rain almost immediately. Not that it really matters exactly how much there is when its all getting washed away. I am rooting for the Berkshires though. Know a weenie up there who is probably staring at his snowshoes right now wondering where it all went wrong this winter. Similarly, the people who live around the capital district. I mean, that in itself is enough punishment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Nam has first look and already has transfer Miller B way south in progress. I am in Tips camp. Runs into a wall with high PWAT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first guess here. I expect a really strong thump off the immediate shore. This is very similar to Matt noyes forecast. Although he does mention that it could all trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: This is very similar to Matt noyes forecast. Although he does mention that it could all trend north. I’m not 100% convinced this is going to come screaming north with warmth and 2-4” for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nam has first look and already has transfer Miller B way south in progress. I am in Tips camp. Runs into a wall with high PWAT. All the models have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 hr54 but seems like the GFS might bump south this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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