Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
 Share

Recommended Posts

But again I’m not calling TOD or anything. This has a shot.  Sometimes these low % things do work and we get lucky. But I’m also not excited. It’s got a lot working against it wrt the NS flow.  We need to get really lucky with the timing of the waves because there are so many and barely (if there is at all) room for this to amplify. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The primary problem last winter was no available actual cold air. That can happen in a NINO or Neutral too. Overall Ninas have worked out well for my yard recently- better than Neutrals/Ninos of the past several years. So it also depends on specific location in any given winter. The lack of cold last winter hurt us both, but it was just good enough for places a bit further N and W. You tend to generalize a bit too much.

There was some luck to it but on the other hand If you look at the overall snowfall the last 4 Nina years and a mean Nina snow anomaly map they end to kinda close. i can’t find the darn thing right now but the max Nina snow minimum is right along 95 from DC to Baltimore. With near normal to the southeast and northwest. The screw zone near DC to Balt is kind of typical of a Nina. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But we do…there are goalposts. Those goalposts haven’t narrowed completely yet…but the outcomes seem to very between not even close and kinda close. Yes timing differences determine just how badly the NS messes it up and that determines if it’s not close or close. But you know what we’re not seeing?  A bunch of flush hit outcomes mixed in there. That means imo that while it’s possible the wave spacing makes it very unlikely. Even the better runs with better timing are still not good enough.  
 

Is it possible guidance converges on the absolutely perfect timing and wave spacing we need for this to work?  Yes. Is it likely no.  What I’m seeing is that there are simply too many vorts embedded in the NS coming across too fast to make the amplification we need likely. 

I don’t think we ever get to “flush” with this. 2-4” is probably the bar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Screw it, Ill take the consolation prize. Thats cold powder on the GFS at 12z..juice that northern stream up slightly more and maybe we all get a cold fluff of 2-3" out of it

I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not exactly. You’re right wrt the timing. But that’s only part of the equation. Imo our bigger problem is the spacing. Conservation of energy laws say we do know simply by “how much is going on” that our odds are low. We need a more amplified solution. The more crap is flying around in the NS flow the less likely anything can amplify more.  So simply the fact there is so much going on is bad. It’s complicated. We don’t do complicated. Our winning snow setups are typically “keep it simple stupid”. That’s why our absolute best pattern possible is a split flow NAO block with cold in place. . NS is out of the way. Not all these stupid waves flyinh across to squads and flatten the SS waves. And a block to stop the resulting amplifications from cutting. 

That’s why I think the timing is huge. We need a little phasing to get one of these strong enough to overcome some of the spacing issues because that’s the piece I don’t see improving. Possibly a little when the issue is over the ne because those tend to move out faster than modeled

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it.

NOW yer talkin!

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After seeing the euro, I can see how getting that northern stream snow (a lot like the “PRE” snow event we had) requires the southern stream to at least get neutral tilted so it can advect some moisture northward. Northern stream actually looked better on the Euro vs GFS/GGEM, but its southern stream remains positively tilted and so there’s no moisture to wring out as snow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Little clipper Monday night but by the time it gets to us its mainly pity flakes

That feature has been getting stronger on every run I've seen... Has Miller B potential (DUCKS) if spacing would allow it.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...