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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it.

B)

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure you can call that a "hit' per se...cold chasing precip and all, lol BUT, it does continue to look stormy around that period but way too far out to know how

It'll change in 6 hours but there is a low that forms along the front south of us that delivers the snow. That is a scenario that can deliver snow to our area. Especially if there's enough separation.

But it's 10 days out and will look different in 6 hours.

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17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It'll change in 6 hours but there is a low that forms along the front south of us that delivers the snow. That is a scenario that can deliver snow to our area. Especially if there's enough separation.

But it's 10 days out and will look different in 6 hours.

Yup. Get the @Bob Chill 8-2 front orientation instead of 7-1 and if that southern wave can lag a little bit, it could be a snowy hit. Ensemble individuals have been highlighting that period for a few days.

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Apologies for needing the joke to be explained...enlighten me if you will, lol

He is upset that he has not gotten as much snow as he should have by now. Despite having more days with snow on the ground than the majority of the forum. This is due to most storms missing to the east and south which this storm also appears to be doing on the latest run of the GFS. 

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From Mount Holly AFD this afternoon-

For Sunday and Monday...Our sensible weather during this time frame, especially Sunday, will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas, however temperature-wise it looks much colder. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However, the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur from northern stream energy and energy tracking along and eventually out of the Gulf Coast states. Much of the guidance keeps the features more separate and therefore the surface low is well offshore and more progressive. Some ensemble member guidance however does show a closer to the coast track of the surface low, so this at least bears some watching. Despite the surface low tracking well offshore, an upper- level jet feature may result in a zone of forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain. For now given the uncertainty, we kept some low PoPs (20-30 percent) in place. Whatever does develop should be moving away by Monday as the main upper-level trough axis swings across our region and surface high pressure starts to arrive from the west.

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Sterling nibbling:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Split upper level flow will persist Friday over the central and
eastern U.S. There remains the potential for some wintry
precipitation over parts of the region late in the weekend, which
will ultimately be determined by the interaction of the northern and
southern stream. At the surface, high pressure will reside over the
southeast U.S. on Friday with a Saskatchewan Screamer (Alberta
Clipper) moving over the northern Great Lakes. This system will
progress eastward on Saturday, with a cold front passing through the
local region likely sometime Saturday. Highs ahead of this cold
front could approach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees east of I-81.
Temperatures will remain closer to normal (or slightly below) Sunday
heading into early next week as an upper level trough moves
overhead.

Regarding precipitation potential, ensemble probabilities and the
NBM indicate snow is possible across the region, with higher
probabilities along the Allegheny Front Saturday night

 

except in wedgie areas

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