Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,499
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    whatweather
    Newest Member
    whatweather
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
 Share

Recommended Posts

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that.

According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in  Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton  

 

I remember that one I think. I was just a kid and it was a nearly snowless winter and the forecast was for 1-2" iirc. Ended up with close to a foot. School let out early and fun times sledding late that afternoon.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc.

Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general.

 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think I had 14” from that. 

4.5" downtown DC on 3/21/2018 +SN that morning...I had a cartopper+ on 3/6/18, but don't recall it

 

 

IMG_0261.JPG

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The medium range looks pretty active but for now it looks like most of the action will be north of us. Looking ahead, recent GFS op runs have advertised a winter storm that takes a more favorable track for our region around the 10th. Looks active leading up to that and the pattern looks decent, but it remains to be seen if anything can track underneath.

The best h5 look on the GEFS is centered on March 10 with a favorable AO and NAO, indication low heights off the Canadian Maritimes, and there is a bit of a signal for a storm. Still out in fantasyland and it is getting kinda late.

1646913600-daB3HsW4mII.png

1646913600-YzXJRNgmNs8.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

 

4.5" downtown DC on 3/21/2018 +SN that morning...I had a cartopper+ on 3/6/18, but don't recall it

 

 

IMG_0261.JPG

My main note on 3/21/18 was that I lost to all three airports (3.7”).  3/6 was very warm ~35 for the snowfall here so I’m not surprised it didn’t collect in DC.  0.9”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS snowfall mean at College Park for the next 15 days is 0.3" of which 0.1" "occurred" this morning.  The mean exceeded the 75th PCTL, which was ~0.15".  The GEFS snowfall mean for the next 10 days is also low ~0.1" mostly due to one member which gives us 3" on the 6th. 

This is quite unusual for February - in almost any pattern.  I'd be nervous to take the "under" of these model "forecasts". 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I don't remember it melting that fast. Ofc the height of it here was late afternoon I think with the deform band.

We got nailed with the first part here. Solid 7 inches and temperatures fell into the 20's midday with heavy snow. Then the lull and snow starting again before the next morning and snowed all day. Picked up another 7 inches or so. I recorded 15 for the event but don't think we ever had more than 11-12 inches on the ground. Very impressive storm for so late. Snow had no problem sticking to paved surfaces both days during the afternoons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

We got nailed with the first part here. Solid 7 inches and temperatures fell into the 20's midday with heavy snow. Then the lull and snow starting again before the next morning and snowed all day. Picked up another 7 inches or so. I recorded 15 for the event but don't think we ever had more than 11-12 inches on the ground. Very impressive storm for so late. Snow had no problem sticking to paved surfaces both days during the afternoons.

I went back and looked at my photos and it was more of an all day event here on the 21st, but didn't really get going good until early afternoon. Heaviest was late afternoon into the early evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I don't remember it melting that fast. Ofc the height of it here was late afternoon I think with the deform band.

I live south and west of most in the forum, so it was over by morning.  Although I do have 1550' in elevation, the temps that day rose to mid 40s and the sun came out in force.  The kids and I sledded on it while it was melting and marveled at how fast 7" could disappear.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At this juncture I would put my money(about a dollar) on the March 8-12 window for a possible modest to moderate winter storm based on the currently advertised pattern progression on the means.

You trying to get a third storm thread named after you? Lol, but you’ve been a great poster this year consistently calling out windows for threats. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You trying to get a third storm thread named after you? Lol, but you’ve been a great poster this year consistently calling out windows for threats. 

It's a crapshoot, and it wasn't my idea to name storms after me lol. (well the Jan 3 one maybe given the crap pattern we were in at the time I got bullish on that window). The last one(the fail for this Sunday)I just saw as a sneaky chance with that trailing wave after the storm of last night went by and the boundary sinking south, with colder air in place. It looked promising for a few days, but as has often been the case this winter, the guidance was pretty far off on the timing and placement of the NS feature(s) at range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...