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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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  • WxUSAF changed the title to February Medium/Long Range Discussion
  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thank you for the new thread, for this month could we stick to just this thread for long range instead of someone making a March/end of February one that is nearly unusable by March.

Makes no sense. You wanna wait until March 1 to make a thread to discuss March weather which will be talked about in February?

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1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

I’ve never started a thread, but hopefully my name will bring us some luck.  Phil said winter isn’t finished, so let’s keep Stormtracker busy with the pbp’s this month.  

Awesome. Now you’ll only have to read from page one each morning. 
 

Yes I realize it’s easier to click on a smaller number.

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@WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. 

Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Makes no sense. You wanna wait until March 1 to make a thread to discuss March weather which will be talked about in February?

My main issue is when a long range thread for the month of February and then it has over 140 replies by February, it just seems cleaner to have a thread for each month and then start a new one on the 1st of the next month.

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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

My main issue is when a long range thread for the month of February and then it has over 140 replies by February, it just seems cleaner to have a thread for each month and then start a new one on the 1st of the next month.

Cleaner? In what way?

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28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I don't know I just find it to be cleaner making a new thread for the new month, almost like a fresh start or something.

Here's the thing though...

When you get to the end of the month, you're talking about the next month. It makes sense to have a thread that encompasses both, so when you get near the end of a month you create a new thread to encompass the end of that month and into the next month.

I don't care all that much, but there's a valid reason for doing it the way WinterWxLuvr suggests. Or we could just go the CAPE route...

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Here's the thing though...

When you get to the end of the month, you're talking about the next month. It makes sense to have a thread that encompasses both, so when you get near the end of a month you create a new thread to encompass the end of that month and into the next month.

I don't care all that much, but there's a valid reason for doing it the way WinterWxLuvr suggests. Or we could just go the CAPE route...

I understand what he means and why it makes sense, but I just don't like it. Like I have said I think a new thread for a new month is just cleaner.

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Re: @clskinsfanin the closed Med Range thread saying "I liked the long range look from a couple of days ago a little better with higher heights poking into Greenland"

 

The 12z GEFS might strike your fancy. It's been showing up a lot at this range on the OP runs, so nice to see the ensembles hinting at it too.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4710400.thumb.png.ac405ae40a66705c4398dccc684b70b4.png

-PNA

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Your take is like referring to the winter of 2009-2010 as the winter of 2010. Or is it 2009?

Like I have said it is mainly personal preference on my end to start a new thread at the beginning of the month. Not to mention that that analogy does not make a ton of sense, comparing years that have happened a decade ago to a month that has just ended is sort of disingenuous. For the year one might have actual confusion, seeing as it happened years ago, but everyone understands the month threads because the month either just ended or is ongoing. 

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17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Here's the thing though...

When you get to the end of the month, you're talking about the next month. It makes sense to have a thread that encompasses both, so when you get near the end of a month you create a new thread to encompass the end of that month and into the next month.

I don't care all that much, but there's a valid reason for doing it the way WinterWxLuvr suggests. Or we could just go the CAPE route...

The only way to get to the bottom of this is to start a thread at the beginning of each month to discuss how/when we are going to start monthly wx threads. 

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