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Snowfan96

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Everything posted by Snowfan96

  1. Snowfan96
    D for me here as well…in Frederick County. Better than I expected after a very warm start in Dec., but still not a good season.
  2. Snowfan96
    9 times out of 10 this is the case. Jan. 3rd was one of those rare exceptions where areas hit the mid 60s and then got a foot of snow 12-18 hours later. But that was a different, more dynamic setup with distinct LP riding the boundary. The downsloping in the NW flow can certainly help the warm air hold in the PBL in events like this one. It will all come down to the degree of mesoscale banding and where it sets up, although the higher elevs and mtns certainly have an advantage going into this.
  3. Snowfan96
    And since that Jan 3 event so many folks have wanted to call it the “new king”, but it really just got lucky a few times. The ECM still outperforms over the GFS.
  4. Snowfan96
    This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”)
  5. Snowfan96
    I wish too! Anyone know if this model is any good?
  6. Snowfan96
    Little love for northern areas - axis remains farther south when compared to the NAM3km, etc...
  7. Snowfan96
    I put more weight in the NAM nest vs. the NAM12, but accums could ended being splotchy (as depicted in the NAM12) since those areas that aren't beneath a heavier band will end up having their temps stay a bit elevated, which will only work to further reduce their accums. If the banding occurs where currently depicted in the CAMs, folks N/W and in higher elevations will do better with this one.
  8. Snowfan96
    Hoping the hi-res guidance is onto something with their shift of the heavier snow north and west. The globals have not progressed to that idea, at least not to the same degree.
  9. Snowfan96
    Given the pattern and the ongoing theme for the winter with high amounts s/e, the GFS soln is probably gonna be close to reality.
  10. Snowfan96
    this has been my approach the entire season. it’s not a favorable pattern for the mid atlantic, so it’s best to keep expectations low and realistic until truly convincing data points otherwise
  11. Snowfan96
    Of course not, which is why I said AFTER this next “event” in my earlier post.
  12. Snowfan96
  13. Snowfan96
    Have no fear, the massive -PNA is about to show its ugly head.
  14. Snowfan96
    IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December!
  15. Snowfan96
    Excellent point! (Timing of the key features will of course be crucial).
  16. Snowfan96
    Everyone knows we only have 2 shots left this season…where ya been? LOL
  17. Snowfan96
    It is indeed…on to next season!
  18. Snowfan96
    Even JB isn’t too hopeful about the threat for 2/13-2/14…that alone tells you this is unlikely to materialize!
  19. Snowfan96
    After reviewing the teleconnections and ensembles, it looks like a warm 2nd half of February - at least that's what the overwhelming evidence suggests. It very well could have been that the Northeast blizzard last weekend was the real turning point in the pattern.
  20. Snowfan96
    Tell me about it! I’d take anything that brings at least an inch of snow. Hoping for at least one last gasp before spring fully ensues.
  21. Snowfan96
    I have to say January turned out way better than expected following the disastrous December. The cities and points south/east did well in January, but a lot of other folks got fringed.
  22. Snowfan96
    Do you think the wave of low pressure behind the front will be enough to induce precip in the cold air? I'm always doubtful in these scenarios. The NAM shuts off most QPF once the cold air arrives - and 9 times out of 10 that always seems to work out best - even when there is wave along/behind the front.
  23. Snowfan96
    I recognize this upcoming “event” on Friday is a bit different set-up, but cannot help but think the GFS and ECM are once again over-doing the QPF in the cold air behind the front (like they did on Jan. 20). We’ve all been down this road so many times - most of the QPF will be gone before the near/sub-freezing temps arrive - even N/W of the cities.
  24. Snowfan96
  25. Snowfan96
    Gotta be 23, Feb 22 is modeled to be a torch on CFSv2
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