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Snowfan96

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Everything posted by Snowfan96

  1. Snowfan96
    Gives mid-atl some snow and turns BOS to rain. But agree, they prob shld not even show sfc panels on a climate model.
  2. Snowfan96
    I have to admit, there is a bit of consolation in that!
  3. Snowfan96
    With the exception of a few winning op runs here and there, the models are still pointing in one direction: OTS. Flow is just too progressive.
  4. Snowfan96
    I agree, I'm def counting that as a win - much better CMC run than I was initially anticipating. CMC does do well on occasion, but I'm not sure of its track record with these types of events.
  5. Snowfan96
    I was wondering the same earlier today, it seems like it has been years since a formidable clipper tracked south of the Mason-Dixon line.
  6. Snowfan96
    You're right - I forgot that we did get some effects from 1 of those 3 events that month - but the real fun was to our NE
  7. Snowfan96
    I hope the next few weeks don't turn out to be like the pattern in March 2018 when New England had 3 blockbuster events and here in the Mid Atlantic we got zilch.
  8. Snowfan96
    Looks like the 12z ICON is going to keep the weekend system offshore again.
  9. Snowfan96
    Good point…let’s hope it holds in that placement - Utah up into Idaho is one of the best possible locations
  10. Snowfan96
    Interesting you mention the midweek potential. I just took a cursory look at the 12z icon (i know!), and it has MD on the northern fringe of the precip
  11. Snowfan96
    Yes! Right now, it seems one of these two outcomes is most plausible: The track stays far enough east with little to no impact, or it phases but then tracks inland as a cutter (much like last weekend) - which could still bring some wintry precip but nothing too significant.
  12. Snowfan96
    A little surprised LWX bumped UP totals N/W… .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 9:15 PM UPDATE: Not too much has changed since the afternoon. With some of the hi-res guidance coming in a touch hotter, have decided to up the high end snowfall totals with the Thursday morning system. Still have an expected snowfall forecast of 1-2". However, addded a 3-4" contour along and just west of the I-95 corridor to account for some of the more aggressive model solutions given the strength of the arctic front.
  13. Snowfan96
    This looks to be setting up as one of those events that takes a bit longer than expected to turn to snow. most areas see an inch or less, except in a narrow band where just enough lift and moisture are maximized for local accums of 2-3 inches.
  14. Snowfan96
    Well said…perception is reality.
  15. Snowfan96
    Is this still the case with the lastest op version of the GFS?
  16. Snowfan96
    18z EC continues south and east trend. The writing is probably on the wall with this one. NC and VA capes look to do best, but wouldn’t be surprised if there was even more of a push S/E.
  17. Snowfan96
    Yes, IMO, the run overall was a step backwards. Our best hope is that the Thursday feature with the arctic boundary overperforms.
  18. Snowfan96
    Not that carries much if any weight, but the 18z icon is also slightly farther south and east that it was on its 12z
  19. Snowfan96
    You’ve got a better shot at this than many of us!
  20. Snowfan96
    As Tomer said: today’s trends have been in the direction with more separation between the troughs. I am hoping the one on the northern stream can dig and move a bit quicker so we have a better shot.
  21. Snowfan96
    12z EC was definitely a step back - especially compared to the 00z run. Axis of heaviest precip stays south and east of DC-Balt. Not surprisingly, but the 12z EC ENS has also shifted with sfc low positions farther east. Looks good from Richmond to Norfolk, but not farther n/w.
  22. Snowfan96
    20/-1 southwest of FDK
  23. Snowfan96
    This is why I never discount the NAM, particularly in these situations. When you have strong WAA and rapid warming in the low and mid levels, the NAM tends to be at its best.
  24. Snowfan96
    Nearly all of the guidance has now come in line with this thinking (posted yesterday afternoon)...so it looks like this "Grinch" will be correct.
  25. Snowfan96
    It does seem a little aggressive, but plausible. The ESE flow in the low and mid levels will be rather strong and I could see it transporting the mild air well inland - and doing so very quickly. I think the NAM may be on to something here. Antecedent cold airmasses can be very quickly blown away with such intense WAA.
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