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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


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Anyone know what the NWS uses to compute their "probabilistic" snowfall forecasts?

https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

Someone is going to get a surprise out of this storm in N IL, from Rockford to Valpo there is a *huge* cutoff!

Enjoy whomever gets the thumping. This winter I consider 3 inches a decent event just to freshen things up. Anything else is bonus!

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3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Even on the 12z GFS around 60 it looks like a decent setup but that vortmax comes out of northern Canada and flattens the southern wave like a pancake.

I have been watching that too.  

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2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Not often I have a chance for over 18" but Im also staying realistic. With so much in the air 4-6" would be alright as it stays looking like winter and builds on snowpack, 6-10" is happy and cant complain at all. Anything over 10" ill be pumped haha. Use this against me if I complain about getting 7" haha 

Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow.  Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though.  But I agree in spirit.

Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive.

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38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Too many freakouts on both the northern and Southern edge of the snow shield the last 18 hours.  No one knows what's going to happen yet.

 

Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. 

Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol   Life goes on though. 

Now for the euro which should be up and running! 

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head.  Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be.

That’s probably the best way to look at it honestly. Most of our snow would come from Tuesday night - Wednesday and very little if anything more after that. Looking at some of 12z operational guidance SLP/Radar make this look like more of a one day storm. 

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

 

Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. 

Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol   Life goes on though. 

Now for the euro which should be up and running! 

Ive had this discussion with Josh more times than the lions have losses the past 20 years. Dont waste your time lol. You wont get him to admit we suck at big dogs.

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5 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. 

Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol   Life goes on though. 

Now for the euro which should be up and running! 

Meh I doubt nearly everyone in the sub has seen a historic storm the past 18 years. Although I guess it depends what you deem historic. I did see the biggest single storm total of my life with just under 17" in GHDII. 

 

And my comment wasn't aimed at you directly. At 18z yesterday some were fretting NW trends now some fretting SE. It only has so much wiggle room. We are in a good spot. 

 

Onto the euro...

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9 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. 

Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol   Life goes on though. 

Now for the euro which should be up and running! 

If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct.

Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift.

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct.

Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift.

Jan 2014 also started to shift SE before correcting NW at the last minute.

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Euro is southeast but only very very slightly so, also the high in Canada is weaker which could maybe have it go back northwest a little in future runs?

 

That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. 

Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature.  

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. 

Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature.  

Euro looked very good. Gfs is now the most south. I called it 2 days ago. The North South models swap.

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24 minutes ago, Chambana said:

12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. 
 

oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. 

ILX is going to get shellacked. It seems like track is relatively consistent, I'm just hoping the warm nose erodes fast enough for us in St. Louis. 

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26 minutes ago, Chambana said:

12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. 
 

oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. 

You said east central, that still include SPI in the highest band? Seen what it did on 10:1 but ratios will be lower at the onset so no clue what Kuchera showed.

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Looks like I'm in for advisory level snow.

Not worth the reduced business and headaches with the kids schools being closed.

I hope the next run bumps north or way south....would rather pass on 3-5 inches.

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