sbnwx85

Quality storm right now. Sub-severe but had some gusts 45-50 mph before the heavy rain moved in.

Glad we have a thread for this event. My plans with friends fell through so I’m just going to chase this by myself which is kind of exciting since I’m not tied to being stuck in one place. At this point I’ll be targeting Daleville, IN, an interstate town near Muncie. They also have a White Castle! For anyone on the fence about whether to go see totality or not: do it. It’s an incredible experience. Totality is like something out of a movie. To look up and see a “black hole” where the sun should be is awe inspiring. I had perfect, clear conditions in Missouri in 2017 and it was incredible. I was immediately hooked. I’m considering going overseas in a couple years to see another one in Spain.

Marginal Risk for much of our forum tomorrow. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024

Event of the year for some.

We've got about an inch of snow. Not usually note-worthy in February but it is a shock to the system after yesterday's Spring-like weather.

Well outside of our sub but it's worth a mention. Sierra Nevada Blizzard Warning for three days. Lake Tahoe communities expecting 2 to 4 feet with 60 mph winds. My dream is to spend at least one winter out there. Extended Forecast for South Lake Tahoe CA Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly between midnight and 5am. Low around 29. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 11am. High near 33. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 11am. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Breezy.

Worried about a cap in February.

NAM initiates convention around 23z but much further west toward Peoria. NAM doesn’t seem to be “off the charts” like the HRRR but still a good tornado potential across the 5% area SPC has outlined. I’ll let the experts dive deeper into the setup.

The 12z HRRR providing some eye candy around Michiana. Convection doesn’t really pop until 01z allowing for discrete storms to move through before going linear. Waiting to see what the NAM does.

An El Niño Febnado? SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity.

Large Day 4 slight risk. ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments.

Measured 2.2” in my backyard. Impressive event for such a Spring-like stretch we’re in.

Should be really picturesque in the morning.

Not to give the climate change enthusiasts any more ammo but I just set a personal record for earliest date that a bug flew into my mouth.

Up to 63 at SBN. Record is 66.

I'd love to see the data on late-February heavy lake effect events because I can't imagine there are many. Anyway, here's me grasping at straws for heavy snow in more than a week.

Unconfirmed reports of about 20 homes damaged.

February rockin’ with 40’s and sun.

There’s been a band of moderate to heavy rain parked overhead for the last 3 or 4 hours. Too bad it’s not 10 degrees colder.

It’s raining again. My snowpack is gone. Ready for spring.

Gonna be a foggy couple nights, at least.

Looks like about a tenth of an inch of ice on ground level surfaces. Looks neat on the snow.

Looks like this will NOT be an Ice Storm Warning event. IWX AFD: Key messages: *Freezing rain tonight through Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.25 inch. *Treacherous travel Tuesday morning, before a transition to rain in the afternoon. Mapped ice accumulations have been reduced with the afternoon forecast package, as to not exceed 0.25". Please note that only a glaze of ice can cause significant travel issues. The messaging within the Winter Weather Advisory remains, "total ice accumulations of one tenth to a quarter of an inch.". An anticipated break in the precipitation, low wind speeds, and moderate rain rates will all work to limit FZRA accumulations much beyond 0.25". Furthermore, the lack of a blocking high pressure to our north and anticipated deep southerly flow will limit the risk of a significant ice storm. Regardless of the headline title, hazardous travel conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday morning. Air temperatures have warmed to near freezing this afternoon, with pockets of freezing rain being reported. Slippery travel conditions have been confined to the western and northwestern reached of the forecast area. This precipitation is the result of modest warm air advection ahead of a weak trough that has moved through the Great Lakes. The weak forcing, paired with our initial dry air mass, has limited precipitation rates thus far. However, light rainfall rates are very efficient with respect to ice accumulation; hence the slippery travel noted above. Amid southwest flow, freezing rain is expected to spread northeast through the forecast area tonight. There is high confidence that impacts to travel will become more common as the night goes on. This, as deeper moisture arrives and the thermal gradient aloft amplifies primarily toward and after midnight, bringing widespread freezing rain to the forecast area. The overnight timing and the preexisting cold temperatures continue to provide high confidence in accumulating ice tonight. Toward dawn, moderate rainfall rates will ease icing efficiency, followed by a gradual warming trend from south to north in the afternoon. A transition to all rain is expected Tuesday afternoon. Therefore,the Winter Weather Advisory end time remains at 1pm EST Tuesday. It is plausible the air temperature in the vicinity of Hillsdale, MI could linger below freezing a a touch beyond that; something to be monitored on Tuesday.

There's a light glaze on most surfaces. Untreated roads and sidewalks are very slick, but most people seem to have gotten the message and got the salt down.