sbnwx85

Although putting 6” down before the lake effect even kicks in is crazy work.

A reminder that NAM stands for Never A Mistake.

NAM dumps overhead for a few hours. In another month that's like three feet of snow, but I'd take 8 in early November. Still lots of leaves on the trees so whoever gets dumped on will also have tree damage and power outages to deal with.

RGEM says congrats, Chicago. This might set some kind of record. /s In all seriousness, Pivotal's output isn't as wild (obvious error in COD's algorithm), spitting out 10" in Chicago thanks to an intense mesolow crashing ashore. NAM and Euro appear to be picking up on a mesolow, as well, but it's a little slower -- coming onshore overnight Sunday. The timing of this early-season lake-effect event favors localized "big dog" totals, as it occurs at night. Plus, lots of deep cold air and a possible Lake Superior connection. Of course, where the bands set up/mesolow forms will be key. Happy tracking!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/ Speaking of updates, WPC has a good one for its snowfall/ice probability maps.

Getting damn near giddy. More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north- northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85 temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this does appear to be something to watch over the next several days. The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+ inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to climatology. Stay tuned.

It was the frostiest morning of the season so far. If you squinted it kind of looked like snow.

Starting to get excited about the potential on this one.

Honored to present the first clown map of the season. We are so back.

The first storm worth watching is showing up on the globals for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Not thread-worthy yet, as there's still a lot to work out, but someone in the sub may see their first flakes/(sticking snow??) of the year. EDIT: Just saw ya'll talking about it in the November thread.

Yeah, probably a couple feet in some spots. A promising sign of how primed the lake is again this season.

Nice rain bands coming off LM today.

Seeing quite a few hail reports in Michigan and N. Indiana.

Already up to 1.5”. Call looking good. What we’ve lacked in severe weather locally we’ve made up for in long-duration thunderstorms.

I think we can squeeze out a couple inches of rain this weekend.

Frost Advisory tonight. It'll be "low tire pressure light" season before you know it.

The things I like most about fall don't happen nearly often enough, but some of the best severe weather/wind events have occurred in October/November. Unfortunately, they're few and far between. Examples: 1. 10/24/01 Tornado outbreak in Northern IN 2. 10/18/07 Nappanee EF3 tornado 3. 10/26/10 High Wind Event 4. 11/17/13 Tornado Outbreak 5. 11/5/22 High Wind Event November, of course, can also bring an occasional big dog, but that's even more rare.

Under a quarter inch of rain so far here. Michigan doing much better.

It seems I say it most years but this warm fall should make for a rockin lake-effect season. Most of the lake-effect belts north and east of me cashed in last year. We just couldn't get the good dynamics on the southern end of Lake Michigan last winter. Too many glancing blows. Hoping for better arctic blasts this winter.

Scored two thunderstorms within a couple hours of each other tonight. Best rains were west and south of me but I still managed about 3/4 of an inch.

Rain is light but it’s thundering which is all I ever really need.

I did some digging and turns out it’s something called “rain”. It’s a relatively common weather phenomenon across some parts of the world. Exciting to see it so close by!

There are a lot of green, yellow and orange returns showing up on radar in southeast Wisconsin. I’ll investigate what it could be.

Edit: Low officially was 40. Tied daily record low from 1986.

Low at SBN was 41 but I had 39 on my thermometer at home.