sbnwx85

Central Illinois getting clobbered Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Areas affected...parts of IL...southeast IA...and far northeast MO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 291642Z - 292145Z SUMMARY...Primary bands of moderate to sporadic heavy snow should pivot from south-central across southeast Iowa, and persist across much of central into northern Illinois through this afternoon. Rates around 1 inch per hour should occasionally occur. DISCUSSION...Long-duration snowfall event will persist through the afternoon, shifting eastward to the northeast of a surface cyclone near the western Kansas City Metro Area. Ongoing heavy snow band across south-central IA should largely pivot across southeast IA and perhaps expand as the strongest mid-level DCVA shifts across eastern IA this afternoon. Farther east, the persistent low-level warm conveyor will maintain a broad swath of moderate snow across central to northern IL. While the bulk of the ascent should remain beneath the dendritic growth zone centered around 550 mb, strengthening mid-level DCVA should foster sporadic bursts of heavier snow. Snowfall rates within these regimes should occasionally reach 1 in/hr.

HRRR picking up on a heavy lake effect band/mesolow swinging through Berrien County mid-late Sunday afternoon. Would be a mess with 10-12” already on the ground.

Things are on track here. It’s been snowing for a couple of hours and we have about a half inch so far. Consistently snowing with flake size and rate gradually improving. The radar looks great.

Potential for two top 10 November snowfalls in the same year in South Bend. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for SOUTH BEND AP, IN Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1893-12-01 to 2025-11-26 1 20.5 1977-11-26 0 2 18.0 1911-11-03 1 - 18.0 1911-11-02 1 4 14.6 1977-11-25 0 5 14.3 2025-11-10 0 6 13.6 1951-11-07 0 7 13.5 1930-11-27 0 8 13.4 2014-11-14 0 9 13.0 1930-11-26 0 10 12.3 2014-11-13 0

If IND can pull their WSW all the way south to Indy, DTX can cover their CWA with a warning, too.

WSW up. I never dreamed November would produce another big dog this year after the 10" lake-effect event three weeks ago, but here it is. Some areas to my immediate northeast will have 18" on the ground thanks to last night's lake event.

Classic lake-effect event here overnight. Half-inch at my house. Within a mile of work, it started snowing, roads are a mess, and there's 2" of snow on the ground. Some areas just over the state line in Michigan picked up 6".

HRRR/RAP dry slot me but put down 11” of snow before that happens. That’s probably overdone. Final call: 9”

Last hour of the HRRR plus kuchera amounts. It’s making me a little nervous seeing how far north that warm air is budging in… and a potential dry slot.

Light snow most of the day but DAB-. Roads are clear. Still a festive-looking day that felt more like Christmas than Thanksgiving.

Could cash in on lake effect bonus Sunday. 12”+ in play.

The high end of the range is way overdone. 11” here by Sunday morning is plausible if things go well. For the storm itself, things have been looking good for 6-10” for a while. NAM is juiced up but that’s typical at this point.

This includes today’s lake effect but c’mon now.

Power is back. Thanksgiving is still on... for better or worse.

This is it. 6-8", especially in November, is a big win. Hopefully sets the tone of the rest of the winter!

Just sharing because it shows the NWS Blend of models

Even the 10:1 map is a big dog.

GFS continues to improve. I think many of us would take this in a heartbeat

Just lost power because of 45-50 mph gusts. We were supposed to host Thanksgiving. Hopefully the power comes back on by morning.

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

Different ways of getting there but GFS and Euro manage to drop 5” of slop on those runs.

Need the north trend to stop for sure. Half of what falls on the euro imby is lake effect and it’s overdoing that big time.

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

6z Euro held serve and the 6z GFS was another step in the right direction. Warm air nudging in too far north is definitely a concern moving forward, but so far, so good.