sbnwx85

Light snow most of the day but DAB-. Roads are clear. Still a festive-looking day that felt more like Christmas than Thanksgiving.

Could cash in on lake effect bonus Sunday. 12”+ in play.

The high end of the range is way overdone. 11” here by Sunday morning is plausible if things go well. For the storm itself, things have been looking good for 6-10” for a while. NAM is juiced up but that’s typical at this point.

This includes today’s lake effect but c’mon now.

Power is back. Thanksgiving is still on... for better or worse.

This is it. 6-8", especially in November, is a big win. Hopefully sets the tone of the rest of the winter!

Just sharing because it shows the NWS Blend of models

Even the 10:1 map is a big dog.

GFS continues to improve. I think many of us would take this in a heartbeat

Just lost power because of 45-50 mph gusts. We were supposed to host Thanksgiving. Hopefully the power comes back on by morning.

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

Different ways of getting there but GFS and Euro manage to drop 5” of slop on those runs.

Need the north trend to stop for sure. Half of what falls on the euro imby is lake effect and it’s overdoing that big time.

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

6z Euro held serve and the 6z GFS was another step in the right direction. Warm air nudging in too far north is definitely a concern moving forward, but so far, so good.

GFS is a step in the right direction.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday.

Wednesday looks awfully windy. Gusts up to 50 mph across much of the sub.

IWX favoring the foreign solutions early on. Friday through Monday... Some lake effect is likely to linger into Friday, possibly briefly shifting into NW Indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis finally passes through Friday night in response to the next area of low pressure taking shape. While models remain in agreement on a baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend. EC/GEM brings in precipitation during the day Sat with temp profiles cold enough for all snow through Sat night before shifting east. GFS delays precip till at least Sunday and maybe not till Monday, which would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. The current forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely pops Sat/Sat night. As would be expected this far out, confidence in finer details is not overly high but worth watching.

Euro pretty much the same as last night on snowfall. Maybe spreads the wealth a little more north.

To be fair you are in peak form for November.

I know @Chambanais pulling hard for the 00z Euro.

The system Saturday is weaker and south. Then a cutter with rain which seems inevitable no matter what happens Saturday.