sbnwx85

Decent single-band lake response somewhere in NW IN into N IN/SW MI, too.

Calling it a storm total of 6.8”. The lake saved this one for me. There are two clear layers of snow: 3” of hard, frozen snow underneath about 4” of fluff.

There’s a real good LE Band setting up south of South Bend. Hopefully it drifts north before weakening. I’ve been working all day so I have no idea how much has accumulated.

Lake enhanced snow is dumping across N IN and W MI. I’m eyeballing about 5” on the ground now.

Losing some snow accumulation to warm temps tonight. In the plus side that should melt snow off of the tree branches before the high winds move in limiting power outages.

Up to 3.6”. Surpasses Halloween for biggest snowfall of the season. Getting dry slotted now. Hoping we can hit 6” when all is said and done.

It's really snowing now. Even though it's 34 degrees it's accumulating nicely. Up to 2.75". Should start to pile up as it gets darker and colder.

Mostly rain now. Waiting for dynamic cooling to switch everything back to snow. Just read the IWX afd and it looks like they at least discussed a blizzard warning for Berrien County overnight but never outright say it. One other area of interest on winds will be mixing heights increasing and entering Berrien County early Saturday morning, but low level winds look to drop off there as the low level MSLP center moves through there. As we couple the falling/already fallen snow across the area, there is a chance that we see 35+ mph and visibility less than 1/2 mile in these spots. The question will be, can we get 3 straight hours of these conditions, which is fairly difficult around here. So, have decided to put wording into the already existing headlines to indicate that. Power outages with could occur with the pasty snow and strong wind. With these conditions and the already fallen/falling snow, N-S roadways will likely have blowing and drifting tonight providing hazardous driving. The blowing and drifting snow in addition to the increasing winds will also look to decrease the visibility also making it a tough drive tonight into Saturday morning.

Unofficially 2" at work. Went back to all snow and it's accumulating efficiently again.

Getting a rain/snow mix at times. I think we're around 2" but I'll go measure a little later. HRRR seems to be handling things well in this area. If it continues to be right we should end up with another 2-3" before the dry slot moves in for a short time tonight. Then the wraparound should be fun overnight.

Closing in on 2”. Temp is 32 at the house. 33 at the airport. Getting some compaction issues with accumulation. Ratios are probably terrible. I think I felt some sleet mixing in while cleaning off the car.

Rip city. Winds gusting to near 40.

About an inch on the ground. Winds gusting to 30. Watching the radar fill in to the south. Just need it to stay snow all day!

NAM and HRRR forecasting some 40-45 mph gusts moving through Northern Indiana and SW MI in the next couple of hours.

Moderate snow currently. Accumulating nicely. One of two waves on the way this morning. We’ll see how the radar fills in and what temps do.

It do be snowing.

My girlfriend’s parents lost power in Mount Prospect. An absolutely spectacular band of snow is pushing north here.

What a dynamic system. If small scale trends like this and a norlun trough hold up I think I could manage 8” with most of the snow piling up as the low pulls away overnight. Winds should be rocking too.

Something to watch... would bring legit blizzard conditions as it swings through MI/IN area early Saturday.

Slightly out of our jurisdiction but the Bills-Steelers playoff game on Sunday afternoon could be an all-timer with heavy lake-effect snow expected. Rumors are swirling the game could get moved to Cleveland.

#TeamGFS

Zoomed out a bit for context

I’d be really interested to see how much consideration, if any, was/is being given for a Blizzard Warning. Winds are going to get going. Lots of Wind Advisories around and even a High Wind Watch at IND.

Good AFD from IWX: Key Messages for Winter Storm: * Headlines have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in far sw MI and nw IN, a Winter Weather Advisory along and north of US 24, and a Wind Advisory southeast of US 24. * The bulk of the hazardous weather and difficult travel (wind/snow/blowing snow) will occur late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Lesser impacts are expected during the day on Friday, though areas that get into heavier wet snow could see roads become slick and slushy. * Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches in the Winter Storm Warning, 1-5" in the Winter Weather Advisory. Wind gusts up to 50 mph Friday night into Saturday in the Wind Advisory. A classic panhandle hook type winter storm the obvious concern for Friday and Saturday. Latest water vapor loop shows the vigorous shortwave now entering the Four Corners with lee side cyclogenesis commencing near the OK/TX panhandles. This pv anomaly will eventually eject northeast and take on a negative tilt once reaching the Mid MS Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will take place under a coupled jet, while in the low levels intense theta-e convergence/advection and latent heat release favors a rapidly deepening cyclone tracking north-northeast through central IL- northern IN-lower MI Friday afternoon into Friday night. A model consensus favor a sfc pressure center drop to near 975 mb by Friday night, near January records and similar to the Tuesday system. The difference this time around will be the incoming cold air with added baroclinicity and CAA for winds/blowing snow. 12z guidance remained relatively stable regarding track/timing and expected significant impacts from snow and wind. Initial warm conveyor precip lifts in Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, especially west of Interstate 69. Rain/snow line likely sets up near the US 30 corridor in IN and US 24 in OH with excellent moisture transport supporting a localized burst of snow during this time. A marginal temp profile in the lowest 7-8 kft suggest another wet/heavy snow with poor rations and compaction, which should limit accums through early Friday afternoon. Deep UVM/moisture plume and developing trowal on the northern fringe of the deepening sfc low lifts through mid Friday afternoon into early Friday evening with primarily rain southeast of US 24, a mixture of rain and snow over the central CWA, and mainly moderate- heavy snow (rates 1-2"/hr) over far nrn IN and srn MI for a time. Wrap around, wind whipped, snow on the southern fringe of the deep low then becomes the concern overnight Friday night into Saturday morning within the pivoting deformation axis, mainly along and northwest of US 24 where several inches of wind blown snow is expected during this time. Significant blowing snow and reduced vis with gusts well into advisory (45 mph +) expected into at least Saturday morning area-wide as cold air wraps in behind the deep cyclone. The greatest wind potential is still favored southeast of US 24 later Friday night into Saturday morning where a Wind Advisory was hoisted. Additional accums into Saturday will be light, with the exception being in far nw/nc IN and srn MI where lake enhancement will support several more inches of snow and difficult to nearly impossible travel. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 Key Message: * An arctic airmass will settle in with times of headline worthy wind chills (-15F or colder) and periodic chances for lake effect snow showers/flurries. The coldest air of the season will become the story Sunday into next week as a deep longwave trough sets up under high latitude blocking. The next shortwave and potential winter storm in this pattern change continue to favor areas south and east of the local area early next week, though some light snow could graze the area. Period of mainly lake-effect snow can be expected through much of the long period otherwise, mainly our west-northwest flow LES belts near the MI border where impacts/accums are expected at times. Headline level wind chills will be possible starting Sunday night otherwise.