sbnwx85

Always loved the English. Tough forecast, innit? Bob’s your uncle. Pip pip cheerio.

I also almost always bust high so doing some reverse psychology with my call

Hedging my bets that warm air is going to win out for quite a while tomorrow. Also ratios will be trash when it does snow. It appears the best bands of snow come through as the low is departing and by then it’s too little to late. Lake effect doesn’t seem all that impressive despite a good setup at first glance. Winds will probably shred the flakes apart making for pixie dust.

Oh what could have been. Final call: 5”

Two of the TV stations in South Bend (not mine) kept showing the NAM in their "futurecasts" and using it to point out why they were so worried about the rain. Will be interesting to see how they adjust to tonight's run.

Winter Storm Watch incoming for IWX... Edit to add text. Includes northern tier of Indiana counites and southern Michigan counties in IWX ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the day Friday. Wind gusts from the west of 35 to 45 mph are possible Friday night and Saturday.

It was last night, too.

A foot of cement with 50 mph winds is going to cause big time power outages. Lake effect in SBN up thru the west coast of Michigan is going to keep things fun on Saturday.

I can’t believe I have to post this meme every winter.

One of the few times I would be happy with every member of the ensemble.

Certainly not going to sneeze at a foot+ of snow with high winds!

Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan.

GFS coming west.

By a county or two. I don't trust it's snow output more than 24 hours out, but it will be interesting to see how it trends (presumably east) with the system.

GFS holds serve. Slightly stronger low but no appreciable differences in track.

I'm perusing area AFD's and while the office's note the different evolutions of this storm between the GFS and Euro... nobody seems to want to pick which one they believe makes the most sense. Main message is lots of moisture to work with, high winds and drier snow than today will cause problems, lake enhancement will be impressive and it'll be v cold as the system pushes away.

I laugh but that's actually a valid point.

The science might say GFS but my heart says Euro.

#TeamEuro

It can never be easy, can it? And I have no room in this forum to complain because right now I’m looking at either 10” of snow or a ‘78 redux. But it would be nice if the models could have a consensus for more than six hours at a time.

Eyeballing about 2-2.5”. Rain mixing in now.

6z GFS has me down to a measly foot.

Euro coming in stronger. Basically in line with the GFS thru hour 96.

My snow stick only goes up to 24” so after that I’m not sure how to measure for you guys.

I'm all in. Bet the house, the car and the dogs on this one. Send me to the poor house if this one doesn't hit.