sbnwx85

MCD regarding frozen precip in Michigan. Mesoscale Discussion 0047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Areas affected...central/southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 120125Z - 120730Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue/develop across southern and central Lower Michigan tonight. Snow may mix in as well at times. DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is lifting northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes with a surface front south of the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The surface freezing line is oriented southwest-northeast across southern Lower Michigan with a warm nose still evident between 850-700 mb in 0000 UTC DTX and ILX soundings. Much of the lifting is occurring above 700 mb (below 0C) with light freezing rain/drizzle resulting across a relatively narrow corridor across Lower Michigan. Sleet and snow will also be possible as the warm nose erodes tonight/overnight and surface temperatures continue to fall. Precipitation rates will likely increase in the coming hours as stronger forcing for ascent arrives leading to accumulating ice, sleet, and snow. Precipitation will likely continue through 0700 UTC and decreasing from southwest to northeast. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 01/12/2020

Quite the visual Our forecasters here lucked out since there was never a real threat of frozen precip in Northern Indiana. I feel bad for the mets who had the change the forecast like 7 times as this thing came closer.

More and more guidance showing an inch or so of snow IMBY at the end of the event. Meanwhile, currently rain and winds are starting to pick up. Gusting around 20 or so. Warm too. 55 at the moment.

Hoping for some thunder tonight. And that's it from this storm.

It's fairly certain it won't be that far south. It's about the only model that far south with the freezing rain. Our NWS forecast and local TV mets are keeping the ZR along and north of I-94.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 0439 PM EST THU JAN 09 2020 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SOUTH BEND... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES WAS SET AT SOUTH BEND TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1950. Kind of a low bar but SBN set a record high temp today.

If the next run of the GFS shows an 1.5" of ice again for South Bend I'm posting for posterity with the laughing emoji.

I'll be gathering two of every animal and changing my name to Noah.

I bet they go Watch for their MI counties for ice concerns Saturday. I could see them including northern tier of IN counties and then deciding on upgrades later. I really think the state line is going to be the dividing line between cold rain and freezing rain/sleet.

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-092315- /O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T1500Z/ Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Rain transitioning to an icy mix is possible in southern portions of Michigan. An icy mix transitioning to snow is possible in central portions of Michigan. Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations may be significant. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Two day storm total precipitation amounts, which includes the combination of rain and snow or ice water content, could approach winter season historical records in Southern Michigan. Prepare for the possibility of extended power outages and canceled travel plans. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && About as strongly worded a watch as GRR has ever put out.

The 3k NAM was showing icing in N IN but the latest run moved it north of the state line. Interested to see when/if GFS follows suit.

I’m considering picking up the towel I threw in earlier today...

Done. Good luck everyone.

C'mon, guys. Another 50 mile shift NW on the Euro and I'll be in the 60's on Saturday. We can do it.

3.3 inches of rain in 24 hours in January would have to be some kind of a record in South Bend, right? At least there's no snow pack so that should mitigate flooding concerns.

I’ll take my 2 inches of rain followed by 6 inches of snow. Better than the other way around (Still prepared for 3 inches of rain and that’s it. That’s the storm).

I'll take "interesting" at this point with the winter we've seen so far. I love interesting!

Big shift north with the wintry precip on the 12z GFS compared to the 00z. About 125 miles. If the trend continues I’ll be storm chasing this weekend

I’ll play along since this is the best thing we’ve had to track in a while. Temps would be in the upper 20’s in much of that icy area. If the wintry side of this system doesn’t work out I’ll live vicariously through the Southeast forums and track the severe wx potential. SPC has Day 6 and 7 slight risks out already for the Deep South. Edit: Edited to include map zoomed in.

Ended with 1.5” before it melted. Looked very pretty.

Can any of you weather experts help me identify what this white stuff falling from the sky is?

When I moved back home to the South Bend area I thought I'd see a big dog within a couple of years. I haven't seen a foot of snow on the ground since March 2013 when I lived in Jacksonville, IL. I moved back to South Bend in March of 2018. Last winter, Central Illinois got a big dog while I was nickel and dimed up here (The snows were more frequent...but I want a big one!). The biggest snow I've gotten in South Bend so far is about 6 inches. While the snow is more frequent it's been incredibly frustrating for me personally. Even the lake-effect has been disappointing outside of one good event this past November. I know it'll all even out eventually, but I figured this was a good place to vent for now. Thank you for attending my Ted Talk.

#Excited