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About WeatherMonger

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Springfield, IL

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  1. Mesoscale Discussion 1831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Areas affected...eastern MO...western and central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111406Z - 111630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored this morning for surface-based thunderstorm development. The initial area of concern will be over central MO and areas northeastward towards the MS River. A tornado watch will likely be needed by midday for portions of eastern MO into western IL. It is uncertain whether surface-based storms and a subsequent tornado risk will develop as far north as extreme eastern IA. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a compact/intense mid-level shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley. Weak convection has been maintained this morning within the warm conveyer belt from southeast MO through the Saint Louis area and into western IL. A surface trough/windshift is analyzed this morning arcing from near the low through central and south-central MO. A small area of cloud breaks is noted in visible-satellite imagery over central MO where forcing is maximized and over the location of greatest concern this morning. Model forecast soundings show gradual destabilization this morning into the midday hours as temperatures slowly rise into the lower 70s with a moist boundary layer. Very strong low-level flow noted at the Saint Louis 88D VAD is resulting in a large low-level hodograph (400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Once sufficiently strong updrafts can develop/persist, a severe risk will likely ensue with an isolated risk for tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary concerns. ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2021
  2. Curious to see if they find a brief spin up occured
  3. Didn't have much wind on my side of the plant, but had a power flash and the east end of the plant is out. Coworker got a call from his wife, had a pine tree fall on his trailer, caved in the kitchen so apparently had some wind with it, he's on same side of town as me but a bit further North. Fairgrounds probably took some wind, never fails during the fair.
  4. Went outside and about 10 coworkers standing around staring up at the sky, "right there, that's a tornado about to form" looked at radar and it's the outflow/gust front moving through, did have some cool cloud movement with it. 100% guaranteed to rain/storm here as it is the opening night of the State Fair.
  5. I have to go mow in this crap. 3" of rain yesterday and the possibility of even more the next few days I can't wait until Friday like I had hoped. 89/78 for a 103 index, ugh
  6. not understanding this portion of 1630Z update, they trimmed it yet says they expanded it.... Given the aforementioned possibilities of more than one storm cluster and the area of large to extreme CAPE, have expanded the higher damaging wind probabilities farther south into MO/IL 1630Z Previous 1300Z
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