February 2022

[HeadInTheClouds]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So maybe winter isn't over yet 

It was over in December. You didn't get the memo? 

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So maybe winter isn't over yet 

Even if we had a raging SE ridge with 70 degree weather it can snow like Feb 2017.

Would be surprised if we do not see another flake this season.

[KEITH L.I]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8

Don't forget solar fall starts August 8th, but it sure can get very hot after that

[eduggs]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this interesting. Looks like MJO phase 4 is cold in the east in March.

Unless March April May is the wrong period to pull rather than Feb March April.

 

But what is the correlation coefficient? My guess is the sample sizes are way too small for any confidence in the correlations? How many times have we been in MJO phase 4 in March? And what was the state of the other climate indices? People read way too much into these indices - without understanding statistics or causality. 

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites 

You are the opposite of JB

[donsutherland1]

The EPS shows the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern near February 20th. That pattern would favor warmth in the East. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive with the warmth. That’s still far enough out that it isn’t cast in stone. For now, a warm or perhaps very warm outcome is on the table, but is not yet locked in. A week from now, we’ll have a better idea of where things are going.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The EPS shows the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern near February 20th. That pattern would favor warmth in the East. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive with the warmth. That’s still far enough out that it isn’t cast in stone. For now, a warm or perhaps very warm outcome is on the table, but is not yet locked in. A week from now, we’ll have a better idea of where things are going.

Thanks for this Don, a break from the cold with energy savings will be welcome!

I am rooting for an earlier flip to warm to allow for a better chance for a possible late winter return.

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The EPS shows the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern near February 20th. That pattern would favor warmth in the East. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive with the warmth. That’s still far enough out that it isn’t cast in stone. For now, a warm or perhaps very warm outcome is on the table, but is not yet locked in. A week from now, we’ll have a better idea of where things are going.

I always enjoy and appreciate your posts, Don.

 

We have a mild week coming up this week and potential for a mild late February. Sounds as if it's important to take advantage of the cold window we have coming in mid February. Cold air comes in next sunday and stays for several days. Hopefully we can get a snow event during that period.

[tim]

45 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Don't forget solar fall starts August 8th, but it sure can get very hot after that

..solar spring starts February 8th & ends May 8th..that's when most daylight is gained

[tim]

..very strong barometric readings..the old "banjo" barometer approaching 31.00..( actually 30.85"..not sure how accurate it is)..

[tdp146]

16 minutes ago, tim said:

..very strong barometric readings..the old "banjo" barometer approaching 31.00..( actually 30.85"..not sure how accurate it is)..

1038.9 on the home station. Just realized that’s a record since I installed it in December of 2020. So we’ve got that going for us. 

[snowman19]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The EPS shows the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern near February 20th. That pattern would favor warmth in the East. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive with the warmth. That’s still far enough out that it isn’t cast in stone. For now, a warm or perhaps very warm outcome is on the table, but is not yet locked in. A week from now, we’ll have a better idea of where things are going.

Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around 

I look at it differently. The NAO in December caused compression and sheered all the storms.

This is definitely a much warmer look BUT with the cold on our side of the globe a strong cutter will allow for weak trailing waves to make use of the cooler air and snow.

Basically, warmer than December with better chance of snow.

[SnowGoose69]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around 

 

Probably will end up muted somewhat as a result of us coming out of winter into March

[George001]

There could be a warmup late Feb but even if there is, we don’t know if it’s sustained or not yet. There is still all of March after that.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

In many mountain resort regions there are also six and sometimes even seven seasons. You add in mud season, black fly season and stick season (the period between when there are leaves on the trees and snow on the ground. 

Mud season being the worst…

[bkviking]

2 hours ago, tim said:

..very strong barometric readings..the old "banjo" barometer approaching 31.00..( actually 30.85"..not sure how accurate it is)..

You just had me check mine and yes - 1035mb so that’s good for 30.6” or something so quite high 

[White Gorilla]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this Don, a break from the cold with energy savings will be welcome!

I am rooting for an earlier flip to warm to allow for a better chance for a possible late winter return.

A break from the cold will feel nice. 

[Allsnow]

Frz rain looks impactful tomorrow morning. Wouldn’t be shocked to see WWA go out 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Frz rain looks impactful tomorrow morning. Wouldn’t be shocked to see WWA go out 

This could easily be far more impactful at least here than the Friday event

[winterwx21]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Frz rain looks impactful tomorrow morning. Wouldn’t be shocked to see WWA go out 

I see RGEM has it as light snow (a dusting to half inch) for us tomorrow morning, rather than freezing rain. Hopefully that will be the case.

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This could easily be far more impactful at least here than the Friday event

Nws said no 

 

With forecast QPF totals and confidence in spatial coverage being
relatively low, this is expected to be more a nuisance event.
Roads are likely already fairly well-treated from the previous
round of wintry weather a few days ago, which should help limit
impacts on the morning and afternoon commutes. A light film or
glaze of ice on some trees is possible, but would be far from
causing downed limbs or power lines. Winds will also be
relatively light through the day tomorrow out of the northeast
from 5 to 10 mph.

[winterwx21]

The 18z run of RGEM is saying maybe we get up to an inch of snow tomorrow morning. That certainly would be nice.

[Allsnow]

50 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The 18z run of RGEM is saying maybe we get up to an inch of snow tomorrow morning. That certainly would be nice.

Gfs similar 

[wdrag]

Guess it’s coming.  Snow and ice.   If it starts at 5a there will be some problems on some roads.   I think salt impact from Prior event maybe waning.  Am pretty sure DPW and MPING will be busy at sunrise. 

[bkviking]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Guess it’s coming.  Snow and ice.   If it starts at 5a there will be some problems on some roads.   I think salt impact from Prior event maybe waning.  Am pretty sure DPW and MPING will be busy at sunrise. 

Thank you Walt . I’ve been waiting for someone to assess this issue - whether issue or not / but need someone to do it. So thank you 

[bluewave]

The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge continues to make headlines.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some light snow, flurries and/or light freezing rain or showers are possible depending on location. Afterward, much of the week will see above normal temperatures before the next cold front reaches the region near or during the weekend.

There is growing consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month. Such a change could be preceded by a storm, as sometimes happens. There remains a degree of uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the pattern change. However, the warmer pattern will likely be in place for the closing week of February. Some guidance suggests that readings could rise to well above normal levels during that time.

The EPS continues to forecast the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern around February 20th. Such a pattern favors above to much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +14.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.360.

On February 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.776 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.709 (RMM).

 

[LoboLeader1]

56 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Guess it’s coming.  Snow and ice.   If it starts at 5a there will be some problems on some roads.   I think salt impact from Prior event maybe waning.  Am pretty sure DPW and MPING will be busy at sunrise. 

Given how well-treated road & sidewalk surfaces are here, any accumulation would be minor.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 23F here as 6:30PM. High of 27F today.