CIK62 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The last 2 days of February are averaging 36degs.(26/45) or -2. Month to date is 37.5[+1.8]. February should end at 37.4[+1.5]. Reached 40 here yesterday. Today: 43-47, wind w. to n., few clouds, 23 by tomorrow AM. Heatwave starts March 7 and lasts a week? 30*(60%RH) here at 6am. 40* at Noon. 47* at 3pm. Reached 50 at 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. A few places could see a rain or snow shower during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 51° Tomorrow will be fair and colder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1° Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. A few places could see a rain or snow shower during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 51° Tomorrow will be fair and colder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1° Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3° Don is mid to upper 40s considered cold? I'd argue it's actually mild today, tomorrow will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don is mid to upper 40s considered cold? I'd argue it's actually mild today, tomorrow will be cold. 40s is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The Euro monthly forecast for February did a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro monthly forecast for February did a great job. What did it show for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What did it show for March? They release the new monthly forecast on the 5th of every month. So we’ll have to wait until next weekend to see the March forecast. They initialize the forecast on March 1st. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain. The sleet piles are especially bullet proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The sleet piles are especially bullet proof. I purposely made a huge one on the uws after the last storm to see how long it will last. I’m up in Vermont currently but have to assume it’s going strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: 40s is normal Today is mild. It started cold. Poor wording on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today is mild. It started cold. Poor wording on my part. Good afternoon Don. Your wording is fine and understood. Some of us chronologically find 40’s cold. Stay well, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 A cooler air mass is again moving into the region. March will start out colder than normal. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late in the week. A warming trend could develop afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +19.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.243. On February 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.901 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain. doesn't sleet look a little dirty to you though? it doesn't have the sparkle of freshly fallen snow and doesn't look pretty as it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 42° It will turn milder starting tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.1°; 15-Year: 45.4° Newark: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.6°; 15-Year: 47.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2021-2022 37.1 +0.9 2020-2021 36.1 +1.0 2019-2020 39.2 +4.1 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.2 +1.1 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +6.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The last day of February is averaging 30degs.(25/35) or -8. Month to date is 37.6[+1.6]. February will end at 37.3[+1.4]. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today 34-36, wind n. to s., breezy early, m. clear. FLASH>>>>>GEFSext. has 20" snowstorm on April Fools Day-----really! Something is up---I mean down---CFSv2. has April 1-3 at 20 degrees BN!!! JUST A HIC-CUP AND CONTROL MEMBER n-bd? 28*(45%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 4pm. Reached 40* at 4:30pm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Despite bright sunshine, temperatures were unseasonably cold today. New York City finished February with a monthly mean temperature of 37.3°, which was 1.4° above normal. A cooler air mass is again moving into the region. March will start out colder than normal. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late in the week. A warming trend could develop afterward. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +12.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234. For the winter, the AO averaged a preliminary +0.800. 73% of days saw positive AO readings. On February 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.903 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Feb was such a meh month. Some warm, some cold. Finished 1.8 degrees above normal with 7 inches of snow. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 19 hours ago, bluewave said: The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Feb 22….+1.8 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2021-2022 37.2 +1.0 2020-2021 36.1 +1.0 2019-2020 39.2 +4.1 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.2 +1.1 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +6.0 Chris what was the average temp for the entire winter? 39.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Chris what was the average temp for the entire winter? 39.5? It finished at 37.1° or +0.9 in NYC. This was the 20th warmest NYC winter average temperature. So the smaller departures in the warmer climate are a bit deceptive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 11 1889-1890 38.4 0 12 1952-1953 38.1 0 13 1982-1983 37.9 0 - 1936-1937 37.9 0 14 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 15 1949-1950 37.6 2 16 1974-1975 37.5 0 - 1879-1880 37.5 2 17 1953-1954 37.4 0 18 2005-2006 37.3 0 19 1991-1992 37.2 0 - 1951-1952 37.2 2 20 2021-2022 37.1 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It finished at 37.1° or +0.9 in NYC. This was the 20th warmest NYC winter average temperature. So the smaller departures in the warmer climate are a bit deceptive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 11 1889-1890 38.4 0 12 1952-1953 38.1 0 13 1982-1983 37.9 0 - 1936-1937 37.9 0 14 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 15 1949-1950 37.6 2 16 1974-1975 37.5 0 - 1879-1880 37.5 2 17 1953-1954 37.4 0 18 2005-2006 37.3 0 19 1991-1992 37.2 0 - 1951-1952 37.2 2 20 2021-2022 37.1 0 It's interesting how none of the pre 21st century winters averaged 40 or above besides 1931-32....what an aberration that winter was, what do you think the average winter temperature of that winter would be if it occurred now? Also interesting that the top 5 winters are all spaced 0.5 apart from one to the next while the ones behind them are more tightly clustered. I would put 2001-02 in a class all by itself, our mildest winter combining both snowfall totals or lack thereof lol and warm temperatures. It beats out 1997-98 in my book. It would've been closer if the late March rogue storm hadn't happened in 1997-98 but I think 2001-02 still would've won because of the milder temps and still very low snowfall totals. I think the LGA and JFK snowfall totals pre late March snowfall in 1997-98 were closer to what we saw in those places in 2001-02? WSI has 2001-02 lapping the field for lowest WSI by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 On 2/28/2022 at 6:53 AM, CIK62 said: The last day of February is averaging 30degs.(25/35) or -8. Month to date is 37.6[+1.6]. February will end at 37.3[+1.4]. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today 34-36, wind n. to s., breezy early, m. clear. FLASH>>>>>GEFSext. has 20" snowstorm on April Fools Day-----really! Something is up---I mean down---CFSv2. has April 1-3 at 20 degrees BN!!! JUST A HIC-CUP AND CONTROL MEMBER n-bd? 28*(45%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 4pm. Reached 40* at 4:30pm. Not too far off oddly, lol. Only missed by a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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