February 2022

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Boxing Day must've been a severe undermeasurement at ISLIP.  No way they only had 14.9 for the entire month when NYC got 20" just in one storm.  I never trust ISLIP snowfall stats anyway.

 

They dry slotted

[wdrag]

What do we know about this? Impact here?

 

from Ventrice below:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is the strongest we've seen since last November. But you wouldn't know this if you were looking at the ECMWF's prediction of the MJO in the real-time multivariate MJO index. This is a time where the RMM index is failing at identifying this event.
 

[SI Mailman]

The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best  banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010

SUFFOLK COUNTY...  UPTON                 18.8   100 PM 12/27  NWS OFFICE  NORTH BABYLON         18.5   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  PATCHOGUE             17.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  CENTEREACH            17.0   930 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  WEST ISLIP            16.0  1215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  EAST NORTHPORT        15.5   715 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SOUND BEACH           15.5  1200 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  NORTHPORT             15.2   138 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  CENTERPORT            15.0   650 AM 12/27  COOP-OBSERVER  BLUE POINT            15.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  EAST SETAUKET         15.0   715 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  MOUNT SINAI           14.2  1255 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  ISLIP AIRPORT         14.2   100 PM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER  QUOGUE                14.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  SHOREHAM              14.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SAYVILLE              14.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  HOLBROOK              12.5   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   145 PM 12/27  PUBLIC  SMITHTOWN             11.5  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  DIX HILLS             10.7   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  FLANDERS              10.0   620 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

Yep, the death bands were over Monmouth, Staten Island and eastern Union counties for that one.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best  banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010

SUFFOLK COUNTY...  UPTON                 18.8   100 PM 12/27  NWS OFFICE  NORTH BABYLON         18.5   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  PATCHOGUE             17.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  CENTEREACH            17.0   930 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  WEST ISLIP            16.0  1215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  EAST NORTHPORT        15.5   715 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SOUND BEACH           15.5  1200 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  NORTHPORT             15.2   138 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  CENTERPORT            15.0   650 AM 12/27  COOP-OBSERVER  BLUE POINT            15.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  EAST SETAUKET         15.0   715 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  MOUNT SINAI           14.2  1255 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  ISLIP AIRPORT         14.2   100 PM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER  QUOGUE                14.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  SHOREHAM              14.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SAYVILLE              14.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  HOLBROOK              12.5   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   145 PM 12/27  PUBLIC  SMITHTOWN             11.5  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  DIX HILLS             10.7   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  FLANDERS              10.0   620 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

Yep, the death bands were over Monmouth, Staten Island and eastern Union counties for that one.

Heart Boxing Day blizzard 

[Volcanic Winter]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Heart Boxing Day blizzard 

I was in North Brunswick at the time. My then girlfriend / future wife and I were snowed in by 4+ foot snow drifts in our ground floor apartment. Was absolutely insane. 
 

That storm also was phenomenal where we live now down in Ocean. A true coastal snow bomb. 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think we are going to see wild temperature swings in March. TRUE torch conditions (not 50 degree fake torch days that average out to a record month), however 60 degree plus days.

I also think we will have strong cold shots when cutters pass. 

I am hesitant to say "winter is over" as this is a perfect weak trailing wave light snow event setup.

Just looking at the GFS show multiple coating to 2 inch events. We will not have the pesky negative NAO to cause compression this time (December was a disaster cool and dry).

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 

Euro also did bad 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also did bad 

yep had anywhere between 3-6 inches of snow here up to go time-never saw a flake.

[Greg g]

6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

alright i'm bored again what's next

Probably March according to what people are saying??

[Greg g]

Walt has been mentioning it.. there is new March post.. he has a long post in that section 

[winterwx21]

44 degrees now. The ice is history.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

They were too far east in

 Boxing day.

wow in SW Nassau we had like 18"

I think that was the JFK total?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

wow in SW Nassau we had like 18"

I think that was the JFK total?

Not sure but had 16 when I was in Norwalk. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

alright i'm bored again what's next

Morch then Lawn thread followed by heatwave followed by winter 2022/2023 weenie out seasonal forecasts.

[EastonSN+]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

37 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Morch then Lawn thread followed by heatwave followed by winter 2022/2023 weenie out seasonal forecasts.

You forgot about hurricane season. Looks like another clear the alphabet season. I like our odds

[CIK62]

March  05  High T's according to our expert models:          EURO>>>   69,     GFS>>>    38,         CMC>>>     30         Plenty of time for all of them to be wrong.

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also did bad 

When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less 

Even a place like Boston didn't get the amount of snow they expected....I don't see 8 inch amounts coming in from that region

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You forgot about hurricane season. Looks like another clear the alphabet season. I like our odds

you dont think we're going into an el nino for next winter?

 

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 

 

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also did bad 

I don't think any of then were that bad. 

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yep had anywhere between 3-6 inches of snow here up to go time-never saw a flake.

People need to stop looking at snow maps and computer generated precip type bs.   

[Rjay]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less 

Agree. Except I don't think the models were that bad.   It seemed clear what was going to happen for several days.  I understand we live in a densely populated area so being 20 miles off on the 0c line (at multiple layers of the atmosphere) will make a large different to a lot of people but it doesn't mean the models were bad. 

[JustinRP37]

The models were not that bad. This was what I expected for a large chunk of the area. And Snowman was certainly not correct either. Lots of local ski areas reported 5+ inches before a change to sleet. It looks like winter in southern and northern Westchester this morning. Stop the bickering. This has been a decent winter so far. (Outside of December) 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, tomorrow will be fair but cold. Temperatures will rise no higher than the 30s across the region.

Overall, the closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. A warming trend could develop afterward. The duration of this warming remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +7.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.633.

On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.089 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.502 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Even a place like Boston didn't get the amount of snow they expected....I don't see 8 inch amounts coming in from that region

whole bunch of 8-10"s Mass Pike Northward vicinity ORH to BOS northward with 6" south of the Mass Pike in se MA. 3-5" n CT and 4-6" souther Mass ORH-CEF-PSF.  Logan  Airport officially 8.5" at 719P. 

[brooklynwx99]

we are going to experience a bit of a warmer pattern after this cold shot this weekend. there is an outside shot for a clipper/miller B around the March 1-3 period, but it's a long shot. however, the pattern does look to reload

we will warm up as the -EPO fires up and cold gets dumped into the west. however, the -EPO extends so far towards the pole that pretty much all of the cold air in the NH is funneled into SE Canada. the SPV is also going to come under some significant fire, and the weakening of the PV should allow for some blocking to possibly form. this would also help to drive the TPV southward into SE Canada

overall, this should allow for a ton of cold air to pool into SE Canada and for a broad CONUS trough to form once we finish the first week of March. New England is going to be favored here, but we should continue to have overrunning chances if Canada stays that cold. the sustained -EPO will bring Arctic air into Canada and the CONUS through mid-month, which is the most important factor for March snow

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, tomorrow will be fair but cold. Temperatures will rise no higher than the 30s across the region.

Overall, the closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. A warming trend could develop afterward. The duration of this warming remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +7.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.633.

On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.089 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.502 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).

 

Don when is the AO going to get down to something more reasonable for wintry weather?

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we are going to experience a bit of a warmer pattern after this cold shot this weekend. there is an outside shot for a clipper/miller B around the March 1-3 period, but it's a long shot. however, the pattern does look to reload

we will warm up as the -EPO fires up and cold gets dumped into the west. however, the -EPO extends so far towards the pole that pretty much all of the cold air in the NH is funneled into SE Canada. the SPV is also going to come under some significant fire, and the weakening of the PV should allow for some blocking to possibly form. this would also help to drive the TPV southward into SE Canada

overall, this should allow for a ton of cold air to pool into SE Canada and for a broad CONUS trough to form once we finish the first week of March. New England is going to be favored here, but we should continue to have overrunning chances if Canada stays that cold. the sustained -EPO will bring Arctic air into Canada and the CONUS through mid-month, which is the most important factor for March snow

Sounds like more storms like this one even when the pattern is good....No sign of negative AO/NAO anywhere?  At this rate NYC and the airports may finish with below normal snowfall for March 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds like more storms like this one even when the pattern is good....No sign of negative AO/NAO anywhere?  At this rate NYC and the airports may finish with below normal snowfall for March 

I would say that's a -AO with all the positive height anomalies over the pole. there could be some ridging into Greenland too, and any bit of that helps