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February 2022


cleetussnow
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The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive.

Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary.

And if it is a cutter those who got very little snow yesterday will be vindicated somewhat.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive.

Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary.

  Definitely bears watching. GFS and CMC are mostly rain but Euro and Ukie are both colder and have significant snow. 

 

euro 18z.jpg

ukie snow map.png

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My guess is that the wave break caused by the blizzard shifted the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere in early February. Older runs before the models caught on to how strong the storm would be had a -PNA pattern. Now this has flipped to more of a +PNA with Arctic high pressure becoming a player.

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the wave break caused by the blizzard shifted the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere in early February. Older runs before the models caught on to how strong the storm would be had a -PNA pattern. Now this has flipped to more of a +PNA with Arctic high pressure becoming a player.

 

 

Pretty stark difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240.

GEFS keeps the strong -EPO while EPS goes positive.

GEPS is in the middle. 

 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Pretty stark difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240.

GEFS keeps the strong -EPO while EPS goes positive.

GEPS is in the middle. 

 

Not really looking to in depth at things right now. But my take just looking over the ensembles 500mb this morning. Is that this coming week we are in transition. Before a colder looking pattern could possibly take shape again with ridging near the west coast into Alaska. This isn't some extended torch look to me and could be potentially cold. Might dig a bit deeper in coming days. Just feel like we went through a marathon watching this last storm lol.

1020180047_index(26).thumb.png.73774150fce417eb4315b0366f7baefa.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.2bb03666221844368f3e387143aae46e.png

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2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Not really looking to in depth at things right now. But my take just looking over the ensembles 500mb this morning. Is that this coming week we are in transition. Before a colder looking pattern could possibly take shape again with ridging near the west coast into Alaska. This isn't some extended torch look to me and could be potentially cold. Might dig a bit deeper in coming days. Just feel like we went through a marathon watching this last storm lol.

1020180047_index(26).thumb.png.73774150fce417eb4315b0366f7baefa.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.2bb03666221844368f3e387143aae46e.png

I will be ok with normal temps in Feb given climo as long as we have an active storm pattern.  Snow wlll be falling more or less. 

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1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Why the low expectations?  Curious your meteorological reasoning 

You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. 

PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well. 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. 

PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well. 

We can all do well. Mjo in phase 3 is cold. 

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