February 2022

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Good stuff. You can thank the MJO for initiating the process IMO. 

Recent studies have found that the persistent ridge near the West Coast  and  Hudson Bay TPV pattern is a result of rising WPAC SSTs.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/793/htm

4. Conclusions

The diagnostics undertaken here suggest that the leading mode of the wintertime atmospheric stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere has undergone a notable change. Since the 1980s, the first leading mode of anomalous winter stationary eddies in the subseasonal timescale has alternated from the PNA to a comparably strong NAWD. Given that EOF describes the variance of individual patterns, the observed increase in the amplitude of NAWD suggests that it may have overtaken the PNA as the more common type of winter variability, with increased influence from western North Pacific SSTs. The CESM large-ensemble simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gas indicate that the NAWD variance will gradually amplify alongside its low-frequency natural variability. This result implies that the subseasonal variation of the atmospheric circulations over North America could continue to be dominated by the NAWD mode, with the potential to sharpen the east–west temperature and precipitation division across North America.

Further comparison of EOF1/EOF2 with PNA/NAWD using spatial correlation reveals a pattern change that is consistent among different reanalysis datasets. Analysis of the paleoclimate simulations suggests that NAWD does co-vary with the global temperature variation at centennial timescales: the NAWD variance was weak in the cooler Pleistocene and gradually increased and stabilized in the warmer Holocene. We further examined large-scale forcing of both atmospheric and oceanic origins for the amplified NAWD and found that most of the documented climate indices, which showed a connection to the 2013–2014 extreme winter of North America, are insignificantly correlated with NAWD with the exception of certain oceanic features like the WNP and Niño 4 (Y + 1); these imply that regional SST anomalies in the subtropical West Pacific may provoke teleconnections that affect NAWD. Future examination of the dynamic processes leading to the NAWD amplification should consider the stationary waves maintenance, namely the jet–terrain interactions, tropical and extratropical diabatic heating, and the effect of Arctic amplification.

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know it's only op runs, but they were kind of ugly WRT snowfall chances.

Not concerned. You set up something like that. Something will pop up I'd think at some point. It's a far cry from what we were thinking not very long ago. February is not canceled this year. 

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Recent studies have found that the persistent ridge near the West Coast  and  Hudson Bay TPV pattern is a result of rising WPAC SSTs.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/793/htm

4. Conclusions

The diagnostics undertaken here suggest that the leading mode of the wintertime atmospheric stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere has undergone a notable change. Since the 1980s, the first leading mode of anomalous winter stationary eddies in the subseasonal timescale has alternated from the PNA to a comparably strong NAWD. Given that EOF describes the variance of individual patterns, the observed increase in the amplitude of NAWD suggests that it may have overtaken the PNA as the more common type of winter variability, with increased influence from western North Pacific SSTs. The CESM large-ensemble simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gas indicate that the NAWD variance will gradually amplify alongside its low-frequency natural variability. This result implies that the subseasonal variation of the atmospheric circulations over North America could continue to be dominated by the NAWD mode, with the potential to sharpen the east–west temperature and precipitation division across North America.

Further comparison of EOF1/EOF2 with PNA/NAWD using spatial correlation reveals a pattern change that is consistent among different reanalysis datasets. Analysis of the paleoclimate simulations suggests that NAWD does co-vary with the global temperature variation at centennial timescales: the NAWD variance was weak in the cooler Pleistocene and gradually increased and stabilized in the warmer Holocene. We further examined large-scale forcing of both atmospheric and oceanic origins for the amplified NAWD and found that most of the documented climate indices, which showed a connection to the 2013–2014 extreme winter of North America, are insignificantly correlated with NAWD with the exception of certain oceanic features like the WNP and Niño 4 (Y + 1); these imply that regional SST anomalies in the subtropical West Pacific may provoke teleconnections that affect NAWD. Future examination of the dynamic processes leading to the NAWD amplification should consider the stationary waves maintenance, namely the jet–terrain interactions, tropical and extratropical diabatic heating, and the effect of Arctic amplification.

 

 

 

I must admit. This is all sort of why I saw this season as potentially pretty interesting back in late November. With the MJO possibility initiating the mixing up the pattern. Just not to this degree we appear to be witnessing. I'm very pleased to see these thoughts working out better than expected. It's an incredible flip from the December mess. Nice paper too, a rather fascinating season continues.

[snowman19]

The new CPC outlook completely disagrees that the current pattern continues into mid and late month:

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CPC outlook completely disagrees that the current pattern continues into mid and late month:

 

2nd half might warm up if the MJO goes into 4.

[MJO812]

Latest MJO

 

Euro  stays in the COD 

 

Gefs into 3 then slightly into 2 then into 3 and into 4.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I must admit. This is all sort of why I saw this season as potentially pretty interesting back in late November. With the MJO possibility initiating the mixing up the pattern. Just not to this degree we appear to be witnessing. I'm very pleased to see these thoughts working out better than expected. It's an incredible flip from the December mess. Nice paper too, a rather fascinating season continues.

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

I wonder how 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 were able to keep the same general pattern throughout 80% of the winter.

Was the MJO in the COD the entire time? I don't think it could have been completely static.

Seems that some METS believe we warm up big time after mid month. Is this completely based on the MJO progression? 

Trying to decipher the reason why this year cannot parallel those years and stay with the current pattern.

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

Did you expect a cold and above average snow in January? I don't think any forecast had that.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder how 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 were able to keep the same general pattern throughout 80% of the winter.

Was the MJO in the COD the entire time? I don't think it could have been completely static.

Seems that some METS believe we warm up big time after mid month. Is this completely based on the MJO progression? 

Quite possible if the mjo goes into 4 but the Euro progression from the MJO this morning stays in the COD.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Quite possible if the mjo goes into 4 but the Euro progression from the MJO this morning stays in the COD.

Is there a way to harvest the MJO plots from 2013 through 2015?

Want to see what happened in the MJO space to not change or affect the pattern.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is there a way to harvest the MJO plots from 2013 through 2015?

Want to see what happened in the MJO space to not change or affect the pattern.

Bluewave would know how to do that 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

Agreed 100%. It's proving beneficial to look at things from a broader perspective. Instead of focusing very heavily on ENSO SSTs alone. Which has been the go to main method for many years. It's helpful to look a little more closely and keep an open mind in recent years. Older analogs have become less useful, which has been discussed. Keeping track of those marine heatwaves is going to be important moving forward. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is there a way to harvest the MJO plots from 2013 through 2015?

Want to see what happened in the MJO space to not change or affect the pattern.

You can find the MJO archive here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

You can find the MJO archive here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Thanks!

I find it interesting that Jan and Feb the MJO we're in warm phases before March.

[EasternLI]

49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

I find it interesting that Jan and Feb the MJO we're in warm phases before March.

Here's a great illustration of what happened in 2015. Versus what occurred in December of this season. In a single image from the following paper. But it's also important to keep in mind other factors which may be present. One such example could be the PDO. Which was positive in 2015. Or the QBO. Nothing works in a vacuum. It's all interconnected. That's also important. It can get really extremely complicated. That's what makes seasonal forecasting so very difficult to this day. This image shows what effects could be expected from 2 different areas of focus via tropical convection. You can see how different the effects can be just from some subtle difference in location. Because of the rossby waves originating from these events. Indonesian activity drives a -PNA. Which we witnessed in December, in an anomalous way. However, move that just a bit east into the west/central Pacific. You see something like a 2015. Which is what happened that season. Hope this can be somewhat helpful. This is why we look to the MJO for clues. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7

[SnoSki14]

Feb 10-20 could be a good period. PNA expansion out west into Alaska giving us colder air downstream.

[Volcanic Winter]

GEFS looked real cold in that time period. Sustained, too. 

Won’t be too cold and dry again like we battled mid Jan?

Edit: My first (I believe) Snowman weenie! Thanks <3

[White Gorilla]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Feb 10-20 could be a good period. PNA expansion out west into Alaska giving us colder air downstream.

Maybe that will be the miracle time when my area doesn't get the shaft for once 

[MJO812]

Snowman19 is really a troll.  Giving out weenies to every poster who are forecasting cold .

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 is really a troll.  Giving out weenies to every poster who are forecasting cold .

He can't admit his forecast is flopping hard. I thought torch Feb too, which is still possible but becoming more unlikely. 

He'll claim victory when we flip warm which isn't hard to do if you forecast warm/snowless every year.  

[White Gorilla]

27 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Can’t  do anything else he’s a limited poster I wonder why. LOL

Like I said before, trolling on a weather forum is the last place I would expect to see it, but here we have one.  It's sad. 

[Eduardo]

46 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Can’t  do anything else he’s a limited poster I wonder why. LOL

Awww everyone beats up on him, but I guess I have a soft spot for him and actually find his contrarian attitude pretty entertaining.  Let's be honest: this place wouldn't be the same without him.

[Maureen]

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Let's be honest: this place wouldn't be the same without him.

Yes, it would be better. 

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

Wasn’t 1984-85 similar? 

[winterwx21]

50 degrees here right now. The warmest day we've had in a long time. A lot of melting.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

50 degrees here right now. The warmest day we've had in a long time. A lot of melting.

Well above forecast

[mikem81]

All the models have 2-3 "wide right" coastals next week. Hopefully one can work out... Looks like all ensembles agree on cold for next 2 weeks (especially week 2)

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Wasn’t 1984-85 similar? 

To the extent that January got much colder following near record warmth in December. But the snowfall reversal in January was in a totally different league. January 22 and 15 were the only years that  Islip went from under an inch of snow in December to 30”+ in January. The other years with such extreme jumps were El Niño’s bolded below. So this is completely new for a La Niña year.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Season
2006-2007	0.0	1.0	1.0
2003-2004	0.0	19.1	19.1
2001-2002	0.0	3.7	3.7
2018-2019	T	0.9	0.9
2015-2016	T	24.8	24.8
2011-2012	T	3.8	3.8
1999-2000	T	8.3	8.3
1994-1995	T	T	T
1978-1979	T	6.9	6.9
1974-1975	T	1.8	1.8
1973-1974	T	9.0	9.0
1972-1973	T	1.5	1.5
1971-1972	T	2.1	2.1
1965-1966	T	12.1	12.1
1989-1990	0.2	2.0	2.2
1977-1978	0.2	27.7	27.9
2021-2022	0.3	31.8	32.1
1970-1971	0.3	11.3	11.6
2014-2015	0.4	30.2	30.6
1980-1981	0.5	13.2	13.7
2012-2013	0.6	3.3	3.9

[EastonSN+]

GEFS and GEPS look different at the end of their runs.

GEFS deep cold

GEPS per below.