Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

I think it will tone down a bit, but not like the NAM.

[Damage In Tolland]

Icon is west from 00z

[jbenedet]

Where's the obs thread? solid radar returns in SNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You have been locked in for 20"+ for days. 

Save for the tossed 18z NCEP runs in Wed(?), you are correct.

[NeonPeon]

Shoot for the stars. If you fail, you'll still... post frothing rage, righteously indignant at the injustice of it all!

I forgot how the phrase goes.

I've been thinking 9 inches in my back yard for days. That'd be top 5 in my time here. I know that wouldn't raise an eyebrow elsewhere. Any more is gravy. I know plenty of guidance shows more. Once bitten, twice shy.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

What's Will doing in Methuen?

 

probably visiting Ray in his man-shed.

[Cyclone-68]

You gotta figure there will be a ton of thunder snow reports with this system?

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icon is west from 00z

A little. It at least has a better consolidated single low.

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

I feel like every storm we talk about how unusual it is that there's disagreement. I think there is just a phenomena where the more specific the expected result seems to become defined, the more variance there appears to be. We have far more consensus now than yesterday, and so on.

It's most sensible for those on the edges, as always.

 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Shoot for the stars. If you fail, you'll still... post frothing rage, righteously indignant at the injustice of it all!

I forgot how the phrase goes.

I've been thinking 9 inches in my back yard for days. That'd be top 5 in my time here. I know that wouldn't raise an eyebrow elsewhere. Any more is gravy. I know plenty of guidance shows more. Once bitten, twice shy.

I think you're being conservative.  It won't take much for us to get 12-18" out of this one.  No p-type issues on any model for us.  Considering someone somewhere is gonna get 24-30" to the NE of us figuring we get half of that isn't outlandish.  Even the RI snow holes are over a foot on most of the guidance.

[CoastalWx]

Then again, you see H5 and all this convection and wonder if we slam some WCB into this column and have a hell of a late morning and aftn. 

[Torch Tiger]

decent but eh, you have to think some will have had a better storm back in December  

[mattb65]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Now post the RGEM sounding same time. LOL

Lol I don't want to upset the weenies. Their inner weenie anxieties are high enough without someone living in hawaii bumping up the worst model. 

I remember going to bed with all the models showing flush hits and waking up the day before a storm with a couple of models pissing in the cheerio bowl.

In reality, convective issues can happen and can steal moisture and screw around with cyclone development and precip distribution which is the one big wildcard that won't be sorted out until gametime.

[Jenkins]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

You gotta figure there will be a ton of thunder snow reports with this system?

Per BOX forecast discussion

Quote

Thundersnow is possible on the nose of the dry slot, as
intrusion of mid level dry air steepens lapse rates.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

25 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

already out of date. OKX has them issued for LI/SE CT, so they should be at zero now too

The map  also looks suspect for other areas of the country

[NorEastermass128]

Are we starting to lose our collective composure?

[bristolri_wx]

All the high-res 12z models are inching westward and upward from their previous runs.  Feeling better about that even as we have other models wobble a little back and forth... the 3K NAM looks awesome as well, once you assume ratios in many places will be higher than 10-1.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

decent but eh, you have to think some will have had a better storm back in December  

Thankfully the bar is quite low here. I just need to get over 5” for my biggest storm of the year.  Seems doable.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Where's the obs thread? solid radar returns in SNE.

 

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we starting to lose our collective composure?

When the RGEM and ICON come out, yeah probably.

[SJonesWX]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

decent but eh, you have to think some will have had a better storm back in December  

using the ICON to troll-that's a new one, even for you.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

decent but eh, you have to think some will have had a better storm back in December  

The two storms aren't remotely comparable 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we starting to lose our collective composure?

There never was any. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Thankfully the bar is quite low here. I just need to get over 5” for my biggest storm of the year.  Seems doable.

Yeah same story here, less than 6" is the largest.  Hopefully you can catch some deform love out there

[dryslot]

lol at some of you using the RGEM, Toss it far and wide.

[Cold Miser]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shit, no more 30 burger?

(Ducks and runs)

Please stop adding "burger" after words unless it's after "ham", or maybe "turkey".

Thanks.

[jbenedet]

You can definitely see the convective feedback on the HRRR and how it want to collocate the best surface pressure falls with the explosive convection. Normally we’d say toss, but guidance is all latching onto this and maintaining a surface low to the east under it. The latest HRRR run is showing improvement in this regard, however.

[JC-CT]

Trough looks good on the GFS, but I'll refrain from saying anything else, lest it produce less qpf for Methuen, MA.

[PhineasC]

FV3 and ARW jumped west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Please stop adding "burger" after words unless it's after "ham", or maybe "turkey".

Thanks.

Sure-burger