Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weathafella]

964 passing east of us will throw tons more moisture 

[JC-CT]

i wonder if it never snows again

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said:

she’s slipping away

For us definitely.   Still ok for coastal peeps.

[NorEastermass128]

We may be trending towards a pedestrian event off the Cape. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s absolutely east at 78. No doubt about it 

Not much though., maybe 10 miles?

its now a 955mb low vs 958. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s about a 75 mile shift east… mega band that was over se Mass is now over the outer cape 

[JC-CT]

just booked a tee time for saturday at 1pm

[CT Valley Dryslot]

GFS has had a fairly consistent day today.

[BRSno]

She's a beast though 

[wxsniss]

Trough and shortwaves actually looked more favorable... continued capture by 21z Saturday... but surface tic'ed east

I actually thought surface should look better than depicted (same for 12z run)

18z NAM still tossed

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Not much though., maybe 10 miles?

its now a 955mb low vs 958. 

Looked like more than that too me. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s about a 75 mile shift east… mega band that was over se Mass is now over the outer cape 

same trends everything is leaking east....

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yeah tick east.  24" on Cape Cod, while Worcester gets an inch.  LOL... models...

This run ad is would give ORH 18+.  Qpf output be damned.

[Prismshine Productions]

Amazing how here and the Southeast thread are normally at war with each other about the way the models swing due to our respective climos but this went from the one everybody gets to the one everybody misses...

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[weatherwiz]

Very happy to see some improved look within the upper-levels. That's what really matters most at this stage. I would have hedged a bit west based on the evolution and I would at least think much more QPF thrown west. If 18z GEFS have more west than east members not really going to sweat much.

[moneypitmike]

Well.....there's always 00z.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that was a minor tick east.

[Lava Rock]

Oh well, what could have been. Next!

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

This run ad is would give ORH 18+.  Qpf output be damned.

How about 7 miles east of Worcester? 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys should not ignore the PV in Canada also pressing south. That is having an effect.

That is starting to become a serious problem. I noted it a couple days ago when I mentioned the trough was starting to get a little “pinched” at the top. Now it’s threatening to really screw this up.  

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looked like more than that too me. 

maybe 20, at most? But yes, you don't want that to continue on to 00z. Running out of room. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’ll say this, anyone who says they are not concerned about what we just saw at 18z is a liar.

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

Make or break time on this run, Im not confident at all

[ineedsnow]

looked better at first that energy that came from Canada screwed this up I think.. 

[rnaude241]

This east trend is even making me start to sweat. Another one or to and she gone......

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is starting to become a serious problem. I noted it a couple days ago when I mentioned the trough was starting to get a little “pinched” at the top. Now it’s threatening to really screw this up.  

I wonder if the ensemble sensitivity shifts from the NS sw to the PV pressing down.  What drives the pressing down of the PV?  Is it something over the North Atlantic?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Curious to see the 18z Euro.

 

18z CMC was slightly east.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll say this, anyone who says they are not concerned about what we just saw at 18z is a liar.

Define concern.  My only worry is I’ll have to backtrack to my non wx friends tomorrow but otherwise yeah it would be great if it hits but if not my life is easier actually 

[EastonSN+]

Yikes hopefully the EURO resets everything and is west like this morning. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is starting to become a serious problem. I noted it a couple days ago when I mentioned the trough was starting to get a little “pinched” at the top. Now it’s threatening to really screw this up.  

seems this is the problem thats why I would wait a few more runs.. Thats why im wondering if its in a dead zone right now and models arent sure how to handle it..