Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[MJO812]

I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really  drastic. 

 

 

Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run

[Brian5671]

Just now, cut said:

RT 25 is actually where MLB considers the division between Yanks territory and Sawx territory when it comes to broadcast policy and blackouts.

Fairfield Cty is consider yankees mets designated market

[JC-CT]

the nam should be tossed no matter what it shows. we went over this

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro started with that to a much lesser extent also. 

 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

It's hard with the 84 hour NAM because there is nothing to compare it to, but that's why I'm more interested in what the upper levels are doing. The MSLP will chase convection from time to time, but if the fundamental upper level support is there I don't worry as much about QPF even if the QPF is bad on that particular run. The Euro for instance did go east with the 700 mb low, but not enough to cause me heartburn. I would imagine that is similarly true of the NAM, we just can't prove it.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

just have to laugh at this point...Christ

It would be pretty funny if after all  that tracking the 18z Nam verified.

[klw]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Agreed ...but ..What should we rely on 

At this point, for me at any rate, the ensembles, the globals, a knowledge of meteorology, and the wisdom of others who know more than I do.  This is all pretty easy for me to say as I have almost always been on the fringe of this with the exception of a few runs which would dump on me.

[EastonSN+]

Just saw the 18z NAM

What's to stop this from going even FURTHER east! 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be pretty funny if after all  that tracking the 18z Nam verified.

have to wonder if it got some new data--we'll find out shortly with other models

[Go Kart Mozart]

The feature over northern Cal right now seems to be the turd in the punchbowl.  This strengthens and drops southward, creating the vacuum which sucks in our main slug of southern energy.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We’re back to a D4 threat. At least we bought ourselves some time. Haha

Delayed is denied.

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Just saw the 18z NAM

What's to stop this from going even FURTHER east! 

 

congrats bermuda?

[wxeyeNH]

Oy...it is the 84 hour NAM but I'm looking for the nearest cliff especially up here. Wouldn't it be ironic if this wiffed for everyone? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

The feature over northern Cal right now seems to be the turd in the punchbowl.  This strengthens and drops southward, creating the vacuum which sucks in our main slug of southern energy.

it's been there on every run for days

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I mean, this is ICON-level inconsistency.

The high shifted way south on this run

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be pretty funny if after all  that tracking the 18z Nam verified.

Yes.  It would suck but also be pretty damn entertaining to read the posts in this thread.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just saw the 18z NAM

What's to stop this from going even FURTHER east! 

 

Probably the huge large-scale trough that digs over the eastern CONUS.

[Cyclone-68]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If that track pans out we should have a impromptu GTG on Tobin on Saturday 

BYOT (bring your own toaster)

[78Blizzard]

Out of its range, but 18z HRRR disagrees with NAM.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s legit fronts and thermal gradients with that initial low that forms and dissipates. 

Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

it's been there on every run for days

Yes, but the perturbations in its strength from run-to-run dictate the outcome of the main slug.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s legit fronts and thermal gradients with that initial low that forms and dissipates. 

You buying NAM?

[dendrite]

No one should be sweatin nammy synoptics this far out.

[klw]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

congrats bermuda?

This made me do a quick Google search to find out the all-time low in Bermuda is 43.6 and there has never been recorded snow.

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, cut said:

RT 25 is actually where MLB considers the division between Yanks territory and Sawx territory when it comes to broadcast policy and blackouts.

That's interesting. But even east out to New Haven, I think you're probably 50/50 in terms of fan base.  That's just my anecdotal experience. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Oy...it is the 84 hour NAM but I'm looking for the nearest cliff especially up here. Wouldn't it be ironic if this ever wiffed for everyone? 

Not like it hasn't happened before.  This is the pitfall of tracking potential storms 7-10 days out.

[shawnmov]

In the immortal words of Jack Buck... "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW!"

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yes, but the perturbations in its strength from run-to-run dictate the outcome of the main slug.  

evidence?

[JC-CT]

NCEP just did that NAM run so that you would all quit bitching about the GFS

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, JC-CT said:

evidence?

Sorry, I am not going to post 10 maps.  Go look for yourself.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No one should be sweatin nammy synoptics this far out.

Are we allowed to sweat all the other models already that nearly whiff us here yet?