mikem81 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Our snow mostly comes in 3-5 hours, looks like it’ll be 1-maybe 2” an hour in that time. Will anybody be awake for it though? Obviously being further east will help with daylight snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Will anybody be awake for it though? Obviously being further east will help with daylight snow. absolutely! grave shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Will anybody be awake for it though? Obviously being further east will help with daylight snow. Rgem ends this around 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem ends this around 11 What do accums look like on the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: Will anybody be awake for it though? Obviously being further east will help with daylight snow. Probably not but it’ll be nice to wake up to whatever it ends up as. I think I’m in a decent spot for this so hopefully it works out. Not huge totals but definitely enough as a winter reminder event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 19 minutes ago, Northof78 said: What do accums look like on the RGEM? 12z RGEM is 3 to 4 inches for most, but has a nice 6 inch band for the coastal counties of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm thinking 4-8 for long Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 New GFS looks really nice, especially for Long Island where it shows some heavy bands setting up. But no one really shut out, 3"+ for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Based on latest trends thinking 3-5 inches for most of the area with potentially a bit more in LI. It will be fast and intense in a way wish it was during daytime hours rather than overnight but will accumulate real well overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 garrett is a dumb name for a winter storm, going with <1” in NYC. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 From OKX Twitter feed: Part of the concern with tonight/tomorrow's #snow is the timing. Short range models are signaling the potential for snowfall rates to exceed 1"/hour just as the morning commute gets underway. Treacherous roadway conditions are likely, especially early. If possible, avoid travel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathermedic said: From OKX Twitter feed: Part of the concern with tonight/tomorrow's #snow is the timing. Short range models are signaling the potential for snowfall rates to exceed 1"/hour just as the morning commute gets underway. Treacherous roadway conditions are likely, especially early. If possible, avoid travel! Definitely staying put tomorrow...or if anything, I'll see how it is later in the morning and go in for a half day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 SPC HREF has the best 6” potential where the banding sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: SPC HREF has the best 6” potential where the banding sets up. Six out of the nine ensembles depict 6-8" totals for parts of Long Island. The orientation of the totals reflects a max heading into southeast New England. If the coastal transfer occurs sooner I can imagine these totals extending into NJ, otherwise as others have stated there will be a gap in max snowfall totals between the primary coming from the Ohio Valley and coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Shades said: Six out of the nine ensembles depict 6-8" totals for parts of Long Island. The orientation of the totals reflects a max heading into southeast New England. If the coastal transfer occurs sooner I can imagine these totals extending into NJ, otherwise as others have stated there will be a gap in max snowfall totals between the primary coming from the Ohio Valley and coastal sections. Yeah, I think there will be an unhappy swath that gets 1-3" while surroundings get 3-6" from the primary or developing low. That dual-max outcome is common in these. The area most at risk of that is over NJ into E PA. We want the low to consolidate/develop sooner for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: If that verified isn’t that about 10” for LI? No it's 1"/hr for whatever hour that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islandersguy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 WABC has 4 to 6 line west of I-95 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NWS is calling for 4-8” but we’re under an Advisory. I would think that gets bumped up to a WSW no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This has the post-Super Bowl 2014, December 5, 2002, February 7, 2003, feel to it. A nice, normal snowstorm.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I think 1-2"/hour rates are not out of the question for whoever is under the best dynamics. 2-5" nw 4-7" se sounds reasonable with a few isolated 8" amounts mainly over eastern LI and southern Ct. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, North and West said: This has the post-Super Bowl 2014, December 5, 2002, February 7, 2003, feel to it. A nice, normal snowstorm. . More like the Feb 2018 and April 2018 events...not quite as heavy and wet but both dropped 4-7 inches in about 5 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Euro still not as bullish as some of the short range models but at this point would rely on short range models more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks good for 3-5 for the city, 4-6 LI, 2-4 N&W, and 4-8 for Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, romba said: Looks good for 3-5 for the city, 4-6 LI, 2-4 N&W, and 4-8 for Jersey coast. I like that the 'screw/transition' zone looks to set up west of the area for the most part, now just a matter of how far west the heaviest bands get from the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, romba said: Looks good for 3-5 for the city, 4-6 LI, 2-4 N&W, and 4-8 for Jersey coast. Nice event for the Jersey Coast on NE. Hopefully the shaft area isn’t too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Nice event for the Jersey Coast on NE. Hopefully the shaft area isn’t too bad. A small tick west would be real nice for I95 and points just NW but at this point we'll take what we can get. Storm in a better spot than it was 24 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: A small tick west would be real nice for I95 and points just NW but at this point we'll take what we can get. Storm in a better spot than it was 24 hours ago. The QPF looks to be a bit further west even if amounts are about the same. I think it's trying to develop the storm near NJ a little sooner which is what we need. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The QPF looks to be a bit further west even if amounts are about the same. I think it's trying to develop the storm near NJ a little sooner which is what we need. We are in a great spot for this one. 4-5" is a reasonable expectation. If I was Upton I would put Suffolk in a WSW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are in a great spot for this one. 4-5" is a reasonable expectation. If I was Upton I would put Suffolk in a WSW E Nassau/W Suffolk would be my guess where you might verify a WSW but the confidence is not too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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