jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are in a great spot for this one. 4-5" is a reasonable expectation. If I was Upton I would put Suffolk in a WSW Probably not the confidence for having enough 6+ amounts for the warning. I think some people in our area will but it likely won't be widespread enough so they'll keep a high-end advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 996mb just a tad bit south of the benchmark.... Clears up that double barrel b.s. look in the previous tracking guidance Enjoy your snow!!!! https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Doorman said: 996mb just a tad bit south of the benchmark.... Clears up that double barrel b.s. look in the previous tracking guidance Enjoy your snow!!!! https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php Doorman!!! Hope all is well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 996mb just a tad bit south of the benchmark.... Clears up that double barrel b.s. look in the previous tracking guidance Enjoy your snow!!!! https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18z RAP looks quite impressive for most of us, 5-6" except well NW. HRRR a little less so, more like 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We about to be nam'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NAM 4-6 for the city, 6+ eastern LI and most of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: We about to be nam'ed It still has 2-4 NW of NYC, it dumps a deform band on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Wow, at the new NAM, classic NJ/NYC banding signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM 4-6 for the city, 6+ eastern LI and most of CT Classic deform signature in NJ. Low is shifting west closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It still has 2-4 NW of NYC, it dumps a deform band on LI This has always been more of a NYC and points SE special but looks significantly better NW of NYC than previous runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 18z RAP looks quite impressive for most of us, 5-6" except well NW. HRRR a little less so, more like 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NAM. Only downer is this is coming completely overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This would probably be 2"/hr in spots. And banding would extend well west into NJ, wouldn't just be confined to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 As I was saying... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 307 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078>081-070900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/ Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk- 307 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3k NAM very similar, average of 6" east of NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 lalala lock it in! we got NAM’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: As I was saying... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 307 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078>081-070900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/ Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk- 307 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. Becoming guardedly optimistic we make it to 6". If the new NAM is right it's hard to see how we don't and some people make it to 8". That's some seriously heavy snow just before daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Becoming guardedly optimistic we make it to 6". If the new NAM is right it's hard to see how we don't and some people make it to 8". That's some seriously heavy snow just before daybreak. Snow starts in 9 hours and she keeps looking better. Looks like a Suffolk County special for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Becoming guardedly optimistic we make it to 6". If the new NAM is right it's hard to see how we don't and some people make it to 8". That's some seriously heavy snow just before daybreak. I'm having a hard time believing that I'm getting much sleep tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 start time? midnight? these things always seem to roll in earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The fact that the good snows are now getting into LI and CT instead of confined to eastern Mass shows this is developing sooner. It wouldn't take much to get the banding into NYC and the immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: The fact that the good snows are now getting into LI and CT instead of confined to eastern Mass shows this is developing sooner. It wouldn't take much to get the banding into NYC and the immediate suburbs. if we lose that double low structure all bets are off 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 She's gonna go right over benchmark. Sucks no blocking or this wouldve been a bomb. Nothing wrong with a 6" storm. I suspect my area could see 8 possibly. Coastal Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: start time? midnight? these things always seem to roll in earlier than expected. Probably around 1 am in our area (but yes tends to come in earlier than expected a lot of times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If the NAM's right the snow does linger a little longer into the morning, like 7-8am or so east of NYC. It'll be a hellacious morning commute for sure. What we get largely falls within 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 So often that double barrel look is modelled but ends up overdone. Same with the models chasing convection like a teenage boy hitting puberty. Sometimes to our benefit sometimes not. Hopefully this is the former situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Almost always start earlier and end earlier I hope the clouds don't roll in till another few hours so we can radiate a bit with the low dew points we have. Not that temperatures are a concern, but the colder the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: If there was blocking would this be a much bigger storm right Its impossible to know. The entire pattern and events over the preceding days would have evolved differently. But if you assume everything the same then yeah the evolution is slower and the storm probably exits slower and you have several more hours of snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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