snowman19 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps members. Gut feeling is we see some adjustments back west come tomorrow. But we'll see. Long way to go in today's modeling world. The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Just not our winter. Finding ways for it to not snow Just now, snowman19 said: The fact that the EPS is even further east than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 did everyone forget about the last storm? that didn't trend nw until inside 60 hours 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: This could very easily come storming back west and by this time tomorrow or Thu 0z we’re sweating the rain snow line. Small changes can definitely still happen and make for big changes downstream. The S/W might be sampled as more robust than models have now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This could very easily come storming back west and by this time tomorrow or Thu 0z we’re sweating the rain snow line. Small changes can definitely still happen and make for big changes downstream. The S/W might be sampled as more robust than models have now. This last sentence is part of the reason I'm thinking what I'm thinking. It seems like that happens more often than the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'd wait til tomorrow's 12z before tossing in any towels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 money guidance here....for a nice track to work with https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f072_us.html bonus images add to the upside 4ta6 call atm o enjoy your snow metro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Models just aren’t that good with East Coast winter storm events from more than a day or two out. The Euro had the same suppression bias with the storm on Monday as it had from before the upgrade. The CAMS did much better the day before with the dry air and sharp cutoff of the snow to the north. So the important details of this storm for us may not be known until Thursday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's unfortunate that twitter is obsessed with QPF maps. They make a lot of people who should know better seem meteorologically ignorant. And they make the general public confused and angry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nice 18z Nam run FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 We get mostly light snow on the 18z NAM. Widespread couple of inches. Probably decent ratios. The trof is less sharp, late developing mid-level lows, SLP offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: We get mostly light snow on the 18z NAM. Widespread couple of inches. Probably decent ratios. The trof is less sharp, late developing mid-level lows, SLP offshore. It's still decent. Slightly south of benchmark track. I'll take 2-4 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: did everyone forget about the last storm? that didn't trend nw until inside 60 hours Yeah giving up this far out given the setup is a little silly. The last storm may have whiffed on us but it buried parts of NJ & the Mid-Atlantic when models showed almost nothing just a couple days before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Watch it trend west tomorrow and Snowman19 will say see I knew it all along. Then he'll say we're all gonna mix or rain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Rich get richer this run. Never thought in a Nina like this that DC to ACY would be on the cusp of significant snow on snow. see 1988-89 Also why the hell do these models always make Long Island seem like it never snows there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models just aren’t that good with East Coast winter storm events from more than a day or two out. The Euro had the same suppression bias with the storm on Monday as it had from before the upgrade. The CAMS did much better the day before with the dry air and sharp cutoff of the snow to the north. So the important details of this storm for us may not be known until Thursday. Maybe we need to create new models for east coast storms like we have specialty hurricane models for TCs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Yeah, seems like a good amount of lean to the west. see where that cluster is to the west of the operational track? I bet thats where this storm will eventually go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Further east? Just this morning we were worried about possible mixing issues! I need a new hobby. The best is when multiple people are doing play by plays and one person says it's trending west! while the other guy says it's trending east! in back to back posts. It's all about location, location, location isn't it. Everyone "sees" what they want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's hard for me to just outright punt something at 60hr that looks anything like this. Maybe it doesn't come together, but I doubt we're looking at the final solution yet. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 hot off the press....BM cluster https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: see 1988-89 Also why the hell do these models always make Long Island seem like it never snows there? On the lower resolution models, a lot of the island models as ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe we need to create new models for east coast storms like we have specialty hurricane models for TCs? The NAM usually does a pretty good job from around 24hrs out. That’s why I am not a big fan of replacing it with some FV3 based CAM. Not sure why they don’t just stick with the NAM and upgrade it regularly like Canada does with the RGEM. The NAM does a great job when dry air is involved like yesterday. It excels when there is a warm tongue between 900 and 750 mb. And when there is a legit very heavy snow threat like January 2016 it’s a strong performer also. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 lee goldberg is leaning toward the 3-6 40% probability.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 28 minutes ago, Doorman said: hot off the press....BM cluster https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif East of the 40/70 Benchmark at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Southern slider? South Jersey deuce in one week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM usually does a pretty good job from around 24hrs out. That’s why I am not a big fan of replacing it with some FV3 based CAM. Not sure why they don’t just stick with the NAM and upgrade it regularly like Canada does with the RGEM. The NAM does a great job when dry air is involved like yesterday. It excels when there is a warm tongue between 900 and 750 mb. And when there is a legit very heavy snow threat like January 2016 it’s a strong performer also. Its useful in those very specific situations but it really struggles with overdoing its QPF fairly often too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Southern slider? South Jersey deuce in one week? Right now its not really hammering anyone, models have made this really weak and strung out but wouldn't be surprised if they amp it back up a bit tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Upton has 4 inches here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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