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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Still digs the Northern stream better than the GFS but definitely leaving more of the southern stream behind compared to 0Z

I was thinking the same. If that dig in the northern stream combined with even a modestly better ejection of the SW energy than the GFS did, then it would be much better around these parts.

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I would say if we got a positive trend from the GFS, then maybe. Definitely not showing the same thing now and the GFS went the other way at 12z. 

Huh?  You said halfway.  The 0z Euro showed a best.  The GFS showed zip and continued to do so.   This run of the Euro is about halfway.  I mean eventually, the Euro may cave with further runs.   Are you always this deb-ish?  

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This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern.  The mean ridge is on/off the west coast.  That's not Position A for a MECS.  The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing.  A very tough thread the needle.  With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions.  So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still.  I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite.  Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome.  Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Huh?  You said halfway.  The 0z Euro showed a best.  The GFS showed zip and continued to do so.   This run of the Euro is about halfway.  I mean eventually, the Euro may cave with further runs.   Are you always this deb-ish?  

Now you know I'm not. But the Euro is just not the pedestal model it was, and we've seen its performance this season on some systems. That being said, as I mentioned earlier, the flow is just too fast and progressive to have more than a Bob Chill type 3-6/4-8 type event. But that would still likely occur south of us because of where the energy is interacting and the digging of the streams. 

Lots of reasons not to buy into the good runs besides it being the only model showing snow...

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1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said:

Wouldn’t we rather it be Suppressed now versus a cutter? Seems like in the final 24 hours before onset, these  things seem weird to start to move west. Or does the current high placement not allow that? 

If that trend benefits DC you can guarantee it ain’t happening. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern.  The mean ridge is on/off the west coast.  That's not Position A for a MECS.  The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing.  A very tough thread the needle.  With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions.  So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still.  I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite.  Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome.  Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS.  

Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind)

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Just now, IronTy said:

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_10to1-2906800.png

Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really.

DT is god awful....the early Jan storm he said the GFS was full of Sh*t   It ended up being nearly spot on......this past weekend he barked non stop about the big winter storm that didn't happen for much of Virginia, now barking on this one only to watch it slowly slip away.

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